The Thal region of Punjab often experiences dry weather conditions with extreme variability in rainfall on a spatiotemporal scale during Rabi cropping season. The current study assesses the impacts of agricultural drought on wheat crops for 2000–2015. MOD13Q1 and CHIRPS data were used for identifying and assessing variation in agricultural drought patterns and severity. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Stress Vegetation Index (STVI) and wheat crop yield anomalies were computed to characterize the gravity of drought across the Thal region. The results indicate that the wheat Rabi cropping seasons of the years 2000–2002 experienced extreme agricultural drought, with a spatial difference in severity level causing low and poor yield, while the years 2011 and 2014 were almost normal among all the years, leaving varied impacts on wheat yield. The combined agricultural risk map was generated by integrating the agricultural and meteorological droughts severity maps. The combined risk map generated using weighted overlay analysis of all the parameters indicate that the total Thal area can be classified into slight, moderate and no drought covering 28.12, 12.76, and 59.12% respectively of the total area. Hence an agricultural risk map would be extremely helpful as a tool to guide the decision-making process for monitoring drought risk on agricultural productivity.
6 March 2025 in Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is a mechanism to cut down GHG emissions and protect the threatened forest ecosystems. Pakistan is suffering from high forest degradation and deforestation rates, but recent plantations under BTTAP have created a significant impact. This study was designed to identify the LULC changes, forest sequestration and emissions from forest degradation in the forest hub districts (Malakand, Mardan, Lower Dir and Upper Dir) of KPK, Pakistan using Landsat imageries. LULC changes were analyzed from 1990 to 2020. In addition, the amount of carbon sequestration and emissions from forest degradation were also calculated. Results of the analysis showed forest area reduction from 1990 to 2009, followed by a sharp increase in the next decade (2010–2020) by 56%. Around 836 km2 of land was found to be covered with forests during BTTAP. The net change was a 32% increase in forest land over three decades. The study offers important information which environment managers and decision-makers can utilize to encourage the plantation of trees and save existing forests in the country to combat climate change.
Climate change and human activities have resulted in the receding of glaciers throughout the world including Pakistan. Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are amongst the most common climate‐change‐induced hazards in northern Pakistan. In the present study, GLOF mapping and modelling was carried out using remote sensing and geographical information system techniques coupled with ground‐truthing. Change detection techniques such as the normalized difference water index were applied on Landsat imagery for the identification of the temporal behaviour of Darkut glacial lake for the last 25 years. The depth of the lake was estimated to be 81 m and the volume of the lake was calculated using a digital terrain model and extracted as 9.79 × 106 m3. The glacial lake extent has increased from 0.045 to 0.154 km2 in the last two decades. Two GLOF scenarios (peak and extreme flood) were developed on an existing volume of water in the study. There are 14 households exposed to medium flood and 10 to low flood risk while one helipad and one school are also in the low flood zone in the first scenario (i.e. peak flood) based on 87.84 m3·s−1 of water. The second scenario (i.e. extreme flood) was executed on 3,128 m3·s−1 of water, in which 14 households are at high flood risk, eight at medium and 35 in a low flood zone, as well as one school, a helipad and a community stockpile which are exposed to low flood. The outcomes of the study will help in the development of risk management plans, preparedness strategies and risk reduction from GLOF hazard.
5 March 2022 in Environment, Development and Sustainability