Significance: The Yellow River (YR) is the cradle of Chinese civilization. It supports agriculture, social prosperity, and human survival. YR runoff and sediment load have sharply fallen since the late 1980s. We reconstructed natural runoff history for the middle reach of the YR from 1492 to 2013 CE. We found that the recent low observed YR runoff is unprecedented over the past five centuries, mainly due to the combination of decreasing precipitation and increasing water consumption by human activities, particularly agricultural irrigation. Our results provide a valuable historical dataset for YR water management, as well as an important model for how to distinguish and quantify anthropogenic influence from natural variability in global change studies.

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.