A logistic model was constructed to assess the risk of forest fire and tested over the central region of Mexico. The model incorporates both static and dynamic predictive variables: elevation, aspect, slope, vegetation type, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land surface temperature (LST), and cloud cover. The latter three variables were derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images from the four months (November to February) before the fire seasons. Actual forest fires were detected on NOAA-AVHRR images from the four fire seasons (March to May) from 1997 to 2000. Variables included in the model were chosen following a stepwise strategy. Statistically, the January NDVI, the February LST, vegetation type and slope had the greatest influence on the distribution of forest fires; however, elevation and precipitation were also included in the final model. The probability of forest fire occurrence for each fire season from 1997 to 1999 was mapped. The accuracy of the model was estimated to be 79.8% with reference to sensitivity, specificity and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Model predictions were validated against data from the 2000 fire season. The fire occurrence probability map is useful for designing large-scale management strategies for wildfire prevention not only in the test area of this study but also in regions where the static and dynamic variables can be similarly defined.

This study shows a simplified approach for calculating emissions associated with forest fires in Mexico, based on different satellite observation products: the biomass, burnt area, emission factors, and burning efficiency. Biomass loads were based on a Mexican biomass map, updated with the net primary productivity products. The burning efficiency was estimated from a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model, which considered the fuel, weather and topographical conditions. The burned areas were the downloaded Maryland University MCD64c6 product. The emission factors were obtained from well-known estimations, corrected by a dedicated US Forest Service and Mexican campaign. The uncertainty was estimated from an integrative method. Our method was applied to a four-year period, 2011–2014, in three Mexican ecoregions. The total burned in the study region was 12,898 km² (about 4% of the area), producing 67.5 (±20) Tg of CO₂. Discrepancies of the land cover maps were found to be the main cause of a low correlation between our estimations and the Global Emission Database (GFED). The emissions were clearly associated to precipitation patterns. They mainly affected dry and tropical forests (almost 50% of all emissions). Six priority areas were identified, where prevention or mitigation measures must be implemented.

En el sureste de México, los incendios forestales constituyen una amenaza para la biodiversidad de las selvas tropicales húmedas. El objetivo de este trabajo fue analizar la distribución espacial y temporal de las áreas quemadas en la Reserva de la Biosfera Montes Azules y su zona de influencia, en tres años: 1998, 2003 y 2015. El método se basó en los índices NBR (Normalized Burn Ratio) y BAIM (Burnt Area Index for MODIS) derivados del infrarrojo cercano e infrarrojo de onda corta de imágenes Landsat, proceso validado con imágenes ASTER. Como resultado se delimitaron 1.628 polígonos de áreas quemadas mayores a 10 ha, cubriendo 86.500 ha que representan 11,2 % del área estudiada: 7,7 % en 1998, 3,2 % en 2003 y 0,4 % en 2015. Los polígonos menores de 50 ha fueron comunes en los diferentes años; y los de mayor extensión (1.000 - 3.000 ha) fueron excepcionales y solamente ocurrieron bajo la influencia severa del fenómeno meteorológico de El Niño. La superficie agropecuaria concentró la mayor proporción (54,7 %), seguida por vegetación secundaria (34 %), selvas (7,6 %), bosques (2,1 %), sabana (1 %) y tular (0,6 %). El área protegida concentró 20 % de las afectaciones. La tendencia decreciente de las áreas quemadas confirma su relación con la intensidad del ENOS. La representación cartográfica de las áreas quemadas constituye una alternativa para evaluar los efectos de los programas de manejo del fuego y la conservación de la biodiversidad de las selvas tropicales húmedas en las áreas protegidas.