Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire hotspots—expressed as a Fire Hotspot Density index (FHD)—from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (AcFDI), for 17 main vegetation types and regions in Mexico, for the period 2011–2015. The AcFDI was calculated by applying vegetation-specific thresholds for fire occurrence to a satellite-based fuel dryness index (FDI), which was developed after the structure of the Fire Potential Index (FPI). Linear and non-linear models were tested for the prediction of FHD from FDI and AcFDI. Non-linear quantile regression models gave the best results for predicting FHD using AcFDI, together with auto-regression from previously observed hotspot density values. The predictions of 10-day observed FHD values were reasonably good with R² values of 0.5 to 0.7 suggesting the potential to be used as an operational tool for predicting the expected number of fire hotspots by vegetation type and region in Mexico. The presented modeling strategy could be replicated for any fire danger index in any region, based on information from MODIS or other remote sensors.

This study shows a simplified approach for calculating emissions associated with forest fires in Mexico, based on different satellite observation products: the biomass, burnt area, emission factors, and burning efficiency. Biomass loads were based on a Mexican biomass map, updated with the net primary productivity products. The burning efficiency was estimated from a Random Forest Regression (RFR) model, which considered the fuel, weather and topographical conditions. The burned areas were the downloaded Maryland University MCD64c6 product. The emission factors were obtained from well-known estimations, corrected by a dedicated US Forest Service and Mexican campaign. The uncertainty was estimated from an integrative method. Our method was applied to a four-year period, 2011–2014, in three Mexican ecoregions. The total burned in the study region was 12,898 km² (about 4% of the area), producing 67.5 (±20) Tg of CO₂. Discrepancies of the land cover maps were found to be the main cause of a low correlation between our estimations and the Global Emission Database (GFED). The emissions were clearly associated to precipitation patterns. They mainly affected dry and tropical forests (almost 50% of all emissions). Six priority areas were identified, where prevention or mitigation measures must be implemented.

Mangroves provide ecosystem services worth billions of dollars worldwide. Although countries with extensive mangrove areas implemented management and conservation programs since the 1980s, the global area is still decreasing. To recuperate this lost area, both restoration and rehabilitation (R/R) projects have been implemented but with limited success, especially at spatial scales needed to restore functional properties. Monitoring mangroves at different spatial scales in the long term (decades) is critical to detect potential threats and select cost-effective management criteria and performance measures to improve R/R program success. Here, we analyze the origin, development, implementation, and outcomes of a country-level mangrove monitoring system in the Neotropics covering >9000 km² over 15 years. The Mexico’s Mangrove Monitoring System (SMMM) considers a spatiotemporal hierarchical approach as a conceptual framework where remote sensing is a key component. We analyze the role of the SMMM’s remote sensing products as a “hub” of multi- and interdisciplinary ecological and social-ecological studies to develop national priorities and inform local and regional mangrove management decisions. We propose that the SMMM products, outcomes, and lessons learned can be used as a blueprint in other developing countries where cost-effective R/R projects are planned as part of mangrove protection, conservation, and management programs.

Hurricanes are powerful tropical storms that can severely damage mangrove forests through uprooting trees, sediment erosion, and saltwater intrusion, disrupting their critical role in coastal protection and biodiversity. After a hurricane, evaluating mangrove damage helps prioritize rehabilitation efforts, as these ecosystems play a key ecological role in coastal regions. Thus, we analyzed the defoliation of mangrove forest canopies and their early recovery, approximately 2.5 years after the landfall of Category 3 Hurricane Roslyn in October 2002 in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico. The following mangrove traits were analyzed: (1) the yearly time series of the Combined Mangrove Recognition Index (CMRI) standard deviation from 2020 to 2025, (2) the CMRI rate of change (slope) following the hurricane’s impact, and (3) the canopy height model (CHM) before and after the hurricane using satellite and UAV-LiDAR data. Hurricane Roslyn caused a substantial decrease in canopy cover, resulting in a loss of 47,202 ha, which represents 82.8% of the total area of 57,037 ha. The CMRI standard deviation indicated early signs of canopy recovery in one-third of the mangrove-damaged areas 2.5 years post-impact. The CMRI slope indicated that areas near the undammed rivers had a maximum recovery rate of 0.05 CMRI units per month, indicating a predicted canopy recovery of ~2.5 years. However, most mangrove areas exhibited CMRI rates between 0.01 and 0.03 CMRI units per month, anticipating a recovery time between 40 months (approximately 3.4 years) and 122 months (roughly 10 years). Unfortunately, most of the already degraded Laguncularia racemosa forests displayed a negative CMRI slope, suggesting a lack of canopy recovery so far. Additionally, the CHM showed a median significant difference of 3.3 m in the canopy height of fringe-type Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa forests after the hurricane’s landfall.

There is a need to convert fire danger indices into operational estimates of fire activity to support strategic fire management, particularly under climate change. Few studies have evaluated multiple accumulation times for indices that combine both dead and remotely sensed estimates of live fuel moisture, and relatively few studies have aimed at predicting fire activity from both such fuel moisture estimates and autoregressive terms of previous fires. The current study aimed at developing models to forecast the 10-day number of fires by state in Mexico, from an accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (FDI) and an autoregressive term from the previous 10-day observed number of fires. A period of 50 days of accumulated FDI (FDI50) provided the best results to forecast the 10-day number of fires from each state. The best predictions (R² > 0.6–0.75) were obtained in the largest states, with higher fire activity, and the lower correlations were found in small or very dry states. Autoregressive models showed good skill (R² of 0.99–0.81) to forecast FDI50 for the next 10 days based on previous fuel dryness observations. Maps of the expected number of fires showed potential to reproduce fire activity. Fire predictions might be enhanced with gridded weather forecasts in future studies.

Earth observation (EO) data play a crucial role in monitoring ecosystems and environmental processes. Time series of satellite data are essential for long-term studies in this context. Working with large volumes of satellite data, however, can still be a challenge, as the computational environment with respect to storage, processing and data handling can be demanding, which sometimes can be perceived as a barrier when using EO data for scientific purposes. In particular, open-source developments which comprise all components of EO data handling and analysis are still scarce. To overcome this difficulty, we present Tools for Analyzing Time Series of Satellite Imagery (TATSSI), an open-source platform written in Python that provides routines for downloading, generating, gap-filling, smoothing, analyzing and exporting EO time series. Since TATSSI integrates quality assessment and quality control flags when generating time series, data quality analysis is the backbone of any analysis made with the platform. We discuss TATSSI’s 3-layered architecture (data handling, engine and three application programming interfaces (API)); by allowing three APIs (a native graphical user interface, some Jupyter Notebooks and the Python command line) this development is exceptionally user-friendly. Furthermore, to demonstrate the application potential of TATSSI, we evaluated MODIS time series data for three case studies (irrigation area changes, evaluation of moisture dynamics in a wetland ecosystem and vegetation monitoring in a burned area) in different geographical regions of Mexico. Our analyses were based on methods such as the spatio-temporal distribution of maxima over time, statistical trend analysis and change-point decomposition, all of which were implemented in TATSSI. Our results are consistent with other scientific studies and results in these areas and with related in-situ data.