Changes in land use and land cover over space and time are an indication of biophysical, socio-economic, and political dynamics. In rural communities, land-based livelihood strategies such as agriculture are crucial for sustaining livelihoods in terms of food provision and as a source of local employment and income. In recent years, African studies have documented an overall decline in the extent of small-scale crop farming, with many crop fields left abandoned. This study uses rural areas in three former apartheid homelands in South Africa as a case study to quantify patterns and trends in the overall land cover change and small-scale agricultural lands related to changes in climate over a 38-year period. Random forest classification was applied on the Landsat imagery to detect land use and land cover change, achieving an overall accuracy of above 80%. Rainfall and temperature anomalies, as well as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used as climate proxies to assess the influence of climate variability on crop farming, as the systems investigated rely completely on rainfall. Agricultural land declined from 107.5 km² to 49.5 km² in Umhlabuyalingana; 54 km² to 1.6 km² in Joe Morolong; and 254.6 km² to 7.4 km² in Mangaung between 1984 and 2022. Declines in cropland cover, precipitation, and the SPEI were highly correlated. We argue that climatic variability influences crop farming activities; however, this could be one factor in a suite of drivers that interact together to influence the cropping practices in rural areas.

Woody‐plant encroachment is an under‐recognized consequence of land degradation. This phenomenon is common in rangeland ecosystems, where woody plants outcompete grasses, resulting in a shift to more wooded ecosystems. The consequences of this for livelihoods are most often damaging. Case studies at a local scale have shown negative consequences for ecosystem services and livelihoods, though few have considered these impacts over greater scales to find more generalizable patterns that are useful for governance structures at actionable levels. Here we make use of census data on household income and use of provisioning ecosystem services together with remote‐sensed woody‐plant encroachment data to perform the first country‐wide assessment at the municipal level across South Africa investigating correlations between woody cover change and (1) household income and (2) the use of provisioning ecosystem services use. We show that woody‐plant encroachment is greatest in municipalities with low income and a higher reliance on provisioning ecosystem services, specifically when woody cover was low. This reinforces a poverty trap by creating a positive‐feedback loop. For example, encroached landscapes with lower grass cover are more prone to overgrazing, decreasing fuel loads and further driving encroachment. This places more pressure on the remaining grass cover and decreases the provisioning of ecosystem services. Furthermore, our results allow us to rank the most affected municipalities based on income, reliance on provisioning ecosystem services and rates of woody cover change. We identify 16 municipalities requiring much‐needed interventions due to the risk of woody‐plant encroachment to natural resource‐reliant livelihoods. We suggest that interventions to reduce woody‐plant encroachment be targeted in low‐income communities, providing a win–win scenario for livelihoods and biodiversity. We recommend that woody‐plant encroachment be recognized as major form of land degradation and that restoration of encroached landscapes be prioritized within the UN Decade of Ecological Restoration 2021–2030. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Temminck's pangolin (Smutsia temminckii) is a threatened mammal found in southern and eastern Africa. It is the most widely distributed African pangolin species yet is listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List due to a projected population decline of 30%–40% within the next three generations. This species' secretive, predominantly nocturnal behaviour and generally low population densities make it difficult to directly assess its distribution, and thus, alternative methods are required. Furthermore, many historical and some contemporary records of this species exist from outside of its accepted range, suggesting that the distribution may be greater than currently accepted, although the validity of these records has never been assessed. We used MaxEnt modelling to evaluate the most likely distribution of S. temminckii in South Africa and compared the past and present distribution of the species, as well as assessed the probable validity of the questionable records. Our results suggest that one of the questionable historical museum records is probably valid, while the other may refer to an erroneous collecting locality. At least some contemporary sightings which were originally deemed questionable are probably valid, while others should be treated as dubious until supporting information to validate their authenticity becomes available.