Considering that grain production in Heilongjiang province, northeast China, consumes a lot of water and land, it is necessary to explore the grain production level under restricted water and land resources. This study uses the data envelopment analysis and Malmquist index models of grain production efficiency at the province and country levels from the perspective of space during the period of grain-growing. Furthermore, a logarithmic mean Divisia index model was introduced to construct the system dynamics model. The driving factors of food production efficiency in Heilongjiang province were revealed from the time angle, and the evolution of driving factors was simulated. The results showed the following: (1) although the decrease in the area of the rural population and crop planting has inhibited the growth of grain output in Heilongjiang province, the grain output will increase slightly in the future and is estimated to reach 65.01 million tons by 2030. (2) In 2015, the average grain production efficiency in Heilongjiang Province was 92.3%, and the index of change in grain production efficiency during the grain-growing period was 0.986, which indicates that the overall grain production efficiency in the region was declining, and the input and output were lower than expected. In the future, regional grain production inputs should be allocated to the areas where the grain production efficiency is not as effective as is desired. (3) The cultivated area has the largest contribution of grain production during the period of grain-growing, and the cumulative effect is 21.6 million tons; however, it is estimated that grain yield per hectare will exceed the cultivated land in 2021 as the leading factor promoting grain production, which shows that technological progress is the most important factor moving forward to promote grain production efficiency in Heilongjiang province. Therefore, the subsequent technical measures should be taken to improve grain-production conditions, and the parameter of grain yield per hectare should be used to improve grain production efficiency. The research framework of grain production efficiency is constructed based on space and time. It is of great practical significance to explore food security and reduce the demand for soil and water resources.

Heilongjiang Province is under the pressure of a water shortage due to climate change, population growth and economic development. To effectively manage regional land and water resources, this paper describes a system dynamics model that was built to simulate the interaction between land and water resources and socioeconomic factors, as well as the evolution of regional land and water resources in different climates in Heilongjiang Province. The results show that the declining trend of unused land area and the water supply–demand ratio will not stop, even under the most optimistic (e.g., humid climate) climate conditions, if the current land use patterns continue. Therefore, measures should be taken to manage the unreasonable usage patterns of land and water resources in this region. This study simulated the evolution of regional land and water resources for five scenarios under an arid climate by changing the net irrigation quota for paddy fields, the water quota for industrial use, forestland area, annual change rate of farmland area, and the growth rate of the gross industrial output value. Further, a combined scenario that can maximally reduce the regional land and water resource sustainable risk was identified. The simulation of the combined scenario showed that it can effectively increase the degree of regional land and water resource use in the region, as well as reduce the risks that threaten these resources. This study provides theoretical support for the efficient use of land and water resources in the future.

The supply capacity of water resources, food and meat products is of great importance to the people's livelihood of a country. In recent years, although China has introduced many policies on water resources and grain production, the current situation of China's food self-sufficiency and imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has not been fundamentally changed. Food security and water security are facing a serious situation. This paper takes the water footprint as the connection point, and combines the water food meat system with mutual influence, mutual causation and dynamic feedback into a composite system. At the same time, the simulation model of the composite system is established by using system dynamics, and the dynamic simulation of water grain meat in China from 2000 to 2050 is carried out to explore the current situation and future development trend of China's water, grain and meat supply capacity. It was found that during the simulated period, the agricultural blue-green water footprint on the demand side would continue to dominate, followed by the gray water footprint. The blue water footprint on the supply side remained stable, whereas the green water footprint and the circulating water footprint showed an upward trend. According to the contemporary social and economic development and the model of water resources in China, there will be no meat shortage in the future, but issues have been found in the ability to guarantee water and food supply. The root of China’s food support capability problem is excessive grain consumption due to meat production, whereas the cause of the water support capability problem is the slow development of the water conservation. Food support capability issues can be solved by regulating the meat output of livestock farming and fishery operations, reducing excess production capacity, and stabilizing the meat supply and demand. To solve the water support capability issue, China should focus on accelerating the pace of agricultural water-conservation development, improving the sewage treatment system, building rainwater-collection projects, and promoting the research and development of water recycling technology. This study provides support for optimizing the structures of the meat and grain industries and the policy formulation of the efficient use of water resources in China. Keywords: system dynamics, water footprint, evaluation, water support capability, food support capability, meat support capability DOI: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20231605.7555 Citation: Jiang Q X, Liao H Y, Ouyang X T, Fu Q, He X L, Wu Y X, et al. Dynamic simulation of China's water-grain-meat system and evaluation of its support capability based on water footprint theory. Int J Agric & Biol Eng, 2023; 16(5): 270-282.

Coordinated and orderly water and land resource system is vital to ensure the economic and social development of a region. Grain production in the Chinese province of Heilongjiang has increased every year since 2003, and numerous water and land resource-related problems have become increasingly prominent and have had significant adverse effects on social and economic development and stability in the region. In this study, Heilongjiang Province and its 13 prefecture-level cities were selected as the study area, and the degrees of coordination of the social, economic and ecological subsystems were evaluated using periphery theory and the theory of synergetics. To ensure that the assessment was objective and accurate, weights were calculated using the projection pursuit technique, and degrees of similarity were calculated using a modified (by introducing the chi-square distance) order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) technique. Moreover, to reflect the variations in the overall degree of coordination in Heilongjiang Province, the risk level of the coordination of the water and land resource system was predicted through the year 2020 using a dynamic neural network. This study provides a reference for establishing effective and balanced coordination between society and water and land resources. Keywords: water and land resources, periphery theory, coordination, particle swarm optimization, neural network DOI: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20181103.3508 Citation: Jiang Q X, Zhou Z M, Wang Z L, Fu Q, Zhao Y Z, Wang T. Coordination and order risk assessment of water and land resource system based on periphery and synergetics theories. Int J Agric & Biol Eng, 2018; 11(3): 146–153.