Boom‐bust dynamics – the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline – have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom‐bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom‐bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom‐bust concept. Boom‐bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom‐bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom‐bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom‐bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long‐term data sets that use clear definitions of boom‐bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

Lake surfaces are warming worldwide, raising concerns about lake organism responses to thermal habitat changes. Species may cope with temperature increases by shifting their seasonality or their depth to track suitable thermal habitats, but these responses may be constrained by ecological interactions, life histories or limiting resources. Here we use 32 million temperature measurements from 139 lakes to quantify thermal habitat change (percentage of non-overlap) and assess how this change is exacerbated by potential habitat constraints. Long-term temperature change resulted in an average 6.2% non-overlap between thermal habitats in baseline (1978–1995) and recent (1996–2013) time periods, with non-overlap increasing to 19.4% on average when habitats were restricted by season and depth. Tropical lakes exhibited substantially higher thermal non-overlap compared with lakes at other latitudes. Lakes with high thermal habitat change coincided with those having numerous endemic species, suggesting that conservation actions should consider thermal habitat change to preserve lake biodiversity.

Some tropical cyanobacteria have spread to temperate freshwaters during the last decades. To evaluate their further development in temperate lakes, we studied the temperature- and light-dependent growth of three invasive (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii, Anabaena bergii and Aphanizomenon aphanizomenoides) and three native (Aphanizomenon gracile, Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and Anabaena macrospora) cyanobacterial species (Nostocales) from German lakes. We also included one potentially invasive (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum) Nostocales species. We conducted semi-continuous culture experiments and a microcosm experiment along a natural light gradient. Temperature data were used to design a model to simulate the development of selected species according to three temperature scenarios (past, present and future). Native species had significantly higher growth rates than invasive species and the potential invader A. ovalisporum at low temperatures (≤10°C), while the opposite was true at high temperatures (≥35°C). Maximum growth rates of A. ovalisporum, A. aphanizomenoides and C. raciborskii were clearly higher than those of A. bergii and the native species. Regarding light-dependent growth, significant differences were found between single species but not between all native and invasive species. The model simulation demonstrates a shift in dominance from the native A. gracile in the historic scenario to C. raciborskii populations in the future scenario, in which also the potential invader A. ovalisporum is able to establish populations in temperate lakes. Our findings suggest that any further temperature increase would promote the growth and development of Nostocales species in general, and that of the invasive species in particular, and would enable a more northward expansion of A. ovalisporum.