Background: The Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) program has been providing the fire science community with large fire perimeter and burn severity data for the past 14 years. As of October 2019, 22 969 fires have been mapped by the MTBS program and are available on the MTBS website (https://www.mtbs.gov). These data have been widely used by researchers to examine a variety of fire and climate science topics. However, MTBS has undergone significant changes to its fire mapping methodology, the remotely sensed imagery used to map fires, and the subsequent fire occurrence, burned boundary, and severity databases. To gather a better understanding of these changes and the potential impacts that they may have on the user community, we examined the changes to the MTBS burn mapping protocols and whether remapped burned area boundary and severity products differ significantly from the original MTBS products. Results: As MTBS data have been used over the course of many years and for many disparate applications, users should be aware that the MTBS burned area and severity products have been actively reviewed and revised to benefit from more robust satellite image availability and to address any observed quality issues. In a sample of 123 remapped fires, we found no significant change in the burned area boundary products when compared to the original mapped fires; however, significant changes did exist in the distribution of unburned, low, and moderate burn severity pixels within the thematic product. Conclusions: Analysis of these remapped fires provides a look into how the MTBS fire mapping methods have evolved over time. In the future, additional changes to the MTBS data record may impact data users’ downstream applications. The MTBS program has an established continuous improvement approach to the MTBS methodology and products, and subsequently encourages users to confirm that they are using the most recent data.

We assessed an existing method of remote sensing of wildland fire burn severity for its applicability in south-eastern USA vegetation types. This method uses Landsat satellite imagery to calculate the Normalised Burn Ratio (NBR) of reflectance bands sensitive to fire effects, and the change in NBR from pre- to post fire (dNBR) to estimate burn severity. To ground-truth ranges of NBR and dNBR that correspond to levels of burn severity, we measured severity using the Composite Burn Index at 731 locations stratified by plant community type, season of measurement, and time since fire. Best-fit curves relating Composite Burn Index to NBR or dNBR were used to determine reflectance value breakpoints that delimit levels of burn severity. Remotely estimated levels of burn severity within 3 months following fire had an average of 78% agreement with ground measurements using NBR and 75% agreement using dNBR. However, percentage agreement varied among habitat types and season of measurement, with either NBR or dNBR being advantageous under specific combinations of conditions. The results suggest this method will be useful for monitoring burned area and burn severity in south-eastern USA vegetation types if the provided recommendations and limitations are considered.

Burn severity products created by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project were used to analyse historical trends in burn severity. Using a severity metric calculated by modelling the cumulative distribution of differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and Relativized dNBR (RdNBR) data, we examined burn area and burn severity of 4893 historical fires (1984–2010) distributed across the conterminous US (CONUS) and mapped by MTBS. Yearly mean burn severity values (weighted by area), maximum burn severity metric values, mean area of burn, maximum burn area and total burn area were evaluated within 27 US National Vegetation Classification macrogroups. Time series assessments of burned area and severity were performed using Mann–Kendall tests. Burned area and severity varied by vegetation classification, but most vegetation groups showed no detectable change during the 1984–2010 period. Of the 27 analysed vegetation groups, trend analysis revealed burned area increased in eight, and burn severity has increased in seven. This study suggests that burned area and severity, as measured by the severity metric based on dNBR or RdNBR, have not changed substantially for most vegetation groups evaluated within CONUS.

Regression tree models have been widely used for remote sensing-based ecosystem mapping. Improper use of the sample data (model training and testing data) may cause overfitting and underfitting effects in the model. The goal of this study is to develop an optimal sampling data usage strategy for any dataset and identify an appropriate number of rules in the regression tree model that will improve its accuracy and robustness. Landsat 8 data and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-scaled Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to develop regression tree models. A Python procedure was designed to generate random replications of model parameter options across a range of model development data sizes and rule number constraints. The mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predicted and actual NDVI (scaled NDVI, value from 0–200) and its variability across the different randomized replications were calculated to assess the accuracy and stability of the models. In our case study, a six-rule regression tree model developed from 80% of the sample data had the lowest MAD (MAD_training = 2.5 and MAD_testing = 2.4), which was suggested as the optimal model. This study demonstrates how the training data and rule number selections impact model accuracy and provides important guidance for future remote-sensing-based ecosystem modeling.