Extreme obesity is recognized to be a risk factor for heart failure. It is unclear whether overweight and lesser degrees of obesity also pose a risk. We investigated the relation between the body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) and the incidence of heart failure among 5881 participants in the Framingham Heart Study (mean age, 55 years; 54 percent women). With the use of Cox proportional-hazards models, the body-mass index was evaluated both as a continuous variable and as a categorical variable (normal, 18.5 to 24.9; overweight, 25.0 to 29.9; and obese, 30.0 or more). During follow-up (mean, 14 years), heart failure developed in 496 subjects (258 women and 238 men). After adjustment for established risk factors, there was an increase in the risk of heart failure of 5 percent for men and 7 percent for women for each increment of 1 in body-mass index. As compared with subjects with a normal body-mass index, obese subjects had a doubling of the risk of heart failure. For women, the hazard ratio was 2.12 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.51 to 2.97); for men, the hazard ratio was 1.90 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.30 to 2.79). A graded increase in the risk of heart failure was observed across categories of body-mass index. The hazard ratios per increase in category were 1.46 in women (95 percent confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.72) and 1.37 in men (95 percent confidence interval, 1.13 to 1.67). In our large, community-based sample, increased body-mass index was associated with an increased risk of heart failure. Given the high prevalence of obesity in the United States, strategies to promote optimal body weight may reduce the population burden of heart failure.

Background— Various measures of arterial stiffness and wave reflection have been proposed as cardiovascular risk markers. Prior studies have not assessed relations of a comprehensive panel of stiffness measures to prognosis in the community. Methods and Results— We used proportional hazards models to analyze first-onset major cardiovascular disease events (myocardial infarction, unstable angina, heart failure, or stroke) in relation to arterial stiffness (pulse wave velocity [PWV]), wave reflection (augmentation index, carotid-brachial pressure amplification), and central pulse pressure in 2232 participants (mean age, 63 years; 58% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. During median follow-up of 7.8 (range, 0.2 to 8.9) years, 151 of 2232 participants (6.8%) experienced an event. In multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive therapy, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, smoking, and presence of diabetes mellitus, higher aortic PWV was associated with a 48% increase in cardiovascular disease risk (95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 1.91 per SD; P =0.002). After PWV was added to a standard risk factor model, integrated discrimination improvement was 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.05% to 1.3%; P <0.05). In contrast, augmentation index, central pulse pressure, and pulse pressure amplification were not related to cardiovascular disease outcomes in multivariable models. Conclusions— Higher aortic stiffness assessed by PWV is associated with increased risk for a first cardiovascular event. Aortic PWV improves risk prediction when added to standard risk factors and may represent a valuable biomarker of cardiovascular disease risk in the community.

Background We attempted to characterize age-related changes in blood pressure in both normotensive and untreated hypertensive subjects in a population-based cohort from the original Framingham Heart Study and to infer underlying hemodynamic mechanisms. Methods and Results A total of 2036 participants were divided into four groups according to their systolic blood pressure (SBP) at biennial examination 10, 11, or 12. After excluding subjects receiving antihypertensive drug therapy, up to 30 years of data on normotensive and untreated hypertensive subjects from biennial examinations 2 through 16 were used. Regressions of blood pressure versus age within individual subjects produced slope and curvature estimates that were compared with the use of ANOVA among the four SBP groups. There was a linear rise in SBP from age 30 through 84 years and concurrent increases in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP); after age 50 to 60 years, DBP declined, pulse pressure (PP) rose steeply, and MAP reached an asymptote. Neither the fall in DBP nor the rise in PP was influenced significantly by removal of subsequent deaths and subjects with nonfatal myocardial infarction or heart failure. Age-related linear increases in SBP, PP, and MAP, as well as the early rise and late fall in DBP, were greatest for subjects with the highest baseline SBP; this represents a divergent rather than parallel tracking pattern. Conclusions The late fall in DBP after age 60 years, associated with a continual rise in SBP, cannot be explained by “burned out” diastolic hypertension or by “selective survivorship” but is consistent with increased large artery stiffness. Higher SBP, left untreated, may accelerate large artery stiffness and thus perpetuate a vicious cycle.

Heart failure is a major public health problem. Long-term trends in the incidence of heart failure and survival after its onset in the community have not been characterized. We used statistical models to assess temporal trends in the incidence of heart failure and Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate survival after the onset of heart failure among subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. Cases of heart failure were classified according to the date of onset: 1950 through 1969 (223 cases), 1970 through 1979 (222), 1980 through 1989 (307), and 1990 through 1999 (323). We also calculated 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year age-adjusted mortality rates for each period. Heart failure occurred in 1075 subjects (51 percent of whom were women). As compared with the rate for the period from 1950 through 1969, the incidence of heart failure remained virtually unchanged among men in the three subsequent periods but declined by 31 to 40 percent among women (rate ratio for the period from 1990 through 1999, 0.69; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51 to 0.93). The 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year age-adjusted mortality rates among men declined from 12 percent, 30 percent, and 70 percent, respectively, in the period from 1950 through 1969 to 11 percent, 28 percent, and 59 percent, respectively, in the period from 1990 through 1999. The corresponding rates among women were 18 percent, 28 percent, and 57 percent for the period from 1950 through 1969 and 10 percent, 24 percent, and 45 percent for the period from 1990 through 1999. Overall, there was an improvement in the survival rate after the onset of heart failure of 12 percent per decade (P=0.01 for men and P=0.02 for women). Over the past 50 years, the incidence of heart failure has declined among women but not among men, whereas survival after the onset of heart failure has improved in both sexes. Factors contributing to these trends need further clarification.

Background— Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac dysrhythmia and a source of considerable morbidity and mortality, but lifetime risk for AF has not been estimated. Methods and Results— We included all participants in the Framingham Heart Study who were free of AF at index ages of 40 years and older. We estimated lifetime risks for AF (including atrial flutter) to age 95 years, with death free of AF as a competing event. We followed 3999 men and 4726 women from 1968 to 1999 (176 166 person-years); 936 participants had development of AF and 2621 died without prior AF. At age 40 years, lifetime risks for AF were 26.0% (95% CI, 24.0% to 27.0%) for men and 23.0% (21.0% to 24.0%) for women. Lifetime risks did not change substantially with increasing index age despite decreasing remaining years of life because AF incidence rose rapidly with advancing age. At age 80 years, lifetime risks for AF were 22.7% (20.1% to 24.1%) in men and 21.6% (19.3% to 22.7%) in women. In further analyses, counting only those who had development of AF without prior or concurrent congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction, lifetime risks for AF were approximately 16%. Conclusions— Lifetime risks for development of AF are 1 in 4 for men and women 40 years of age and older. Lifetime risks for AF are high (1 in 6), even in the absence of antecedent congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction. These substantial lifetime risks underscore the major public health burden posed by AF and the need for further investigation into predisposing conditions, preventive strategies, and more effective therapies.