Forest fire patterns are likely to be altered by climate change. We used boosted regression trees modelling and the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2003–15) to characterise relative influences of nine natural and human variables on fire patterns across five forest zones in China. The same modelling approach was used to project fire patterns for 2041–60 and 2061–80 based on two general circulation models for two representative concentration pathways scenarios. The results showed that, for the baseline period (2003–15) and across the five forest zones, climate variables explained 37.4–43.5% of the variability in fire occurrence and human activities were responsible for explaining an additional 27.0–36.5% of variability. The fire frequency was highest in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests zone in southern China, and lowest in the warm temperate deciduous broadleaved mixed-forests zone in northern China. Projection results showed an increasing trend in fire occurrence probability ranging from 43.3 to 99.9% and 41.4 to 99.3% across forest zones under the two climate models and two representative concentration pathways scenarios relative to the current climate (2003–15). Increased fire occurrence is projected to shift from southern to central-northern China for both 2041–60 and 2061–80.

Fire prevention policies during different periods may lead to changes in the drivers of forest fires. Here, we use historical fire data and apply the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of forest fires in the boreal forests of China from 1981 to 2020 (40 years). We divided the fire data into four periods using the old and new Chinese Forest Fire Regulations as a dividing line. Our objectives here were: to explore the influence of key historical events on the drivers of forest fires in northern China, establish a probability model of forest fire occurrence, and draw a probability map of forest fire occurrence and a fire risk zone map, so as to interpret the differences in the drivers of forest fires and fire risk changes over different periods. The results show that: (1) The model results from 1981 to 2020 (all years) did not improve between 2009 and 2020 (the most recent period), indicating the importance of choosing the appropriate modeling time series length and incorporating key historical events in future forest fire modeling; (2) Climate factors are a dominant factor affecting the occurrence of forest fires during different periods. In contrast with previous research, we found that here, it is particularly important to pay attention to the relevant indicators of the autumn fire prevention period (average surface temperature, sunshine hours) in the year before the fire occurrence. In addition, the altitude and the location of watchtowers were considered to have a significant effect on the occurrence of forest fires in the study area. (3) The medium and high fire risk areas in our three chosen time periods (1981–14 March 1988; 15 March 1988–2008; 2009–2020) have changed significantly. Fire risks were higher in the east and southeast areas of the study area in all periods. The northern primeval forest area had fewer medium-risk areas before the new and old regulations were formulated, but the medium-risk areas increased significantly after the old regulations were revised. Our study will help understand the drivers and fire risk distribution of forest fires in the boreal forests of China under the influence of history and will help decision-makers optimize fire management strategies to reduce potential fire risks.

Forest fires cause environmental and economic damage, destroy large areas of land and displace entire communities. Accurate extraction of fire-affected areas is of vital importance to support post-fire management strategies and account for the environmental impact of fires. In this paper, an analytical burned area index, called ABAI, was proposed to map burned areas from the newly launched Sentinel-2 images. The innovation of this method is to separate the fire scars from other typical land covers by formulating different objective functions, which involved three main components: First, spectral differences between the burned land and other land covers were characterized by analyzing the spectral features of the existing burned area indices. Then, for each type of land cover, we formed an objective function by linear combination of bands with the values of band ratios. Second, all the objective functions and possible constraints were formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem, and then it was solved using a linear programming approach. Finally, the ABAI spectral index was achieved with the optimizing coefficients derived from the multi-objective problem. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed spectral index, three experimental datasets, clipped from Sentinel-2 images at different places, were tested and compared with baseline indices, such as normalized burned area (NBR) and burned area index (BAI) methods. Experimental results demonstrated that the injection of a green band to the spectral index has led to good applicability in burned area detection, where the ABAI can avoid most of the confusion presented by shadows or shallow water. Compared to other burned area indices, the proposed ABAI achieved the best classification accuracy, with the overall accuracy being over 90%. Visually, our approach significantly outperforms other spectral indexed methods, especially in confused areas covered by water bodies and shadows.

Fire-induced forest loss has substantially increased worldwide over the last decade. In China, the connection between forest loss and frequent fires on a national scale remains largely unexplored. In this study, we used a data set for a time-series of forest loss from the Global Forest Watch and for a MODIS-derived burned area for 2003–2015 to ascertain variations in forest loss and to explore its relationship with forest fires (represented by burned areas) at the country- and forest-zone levels. We quantified trends in forest loss during 2003–2015 using linear regression analysis and assessed the relation between forest loss and burned areas using Spearman’s correlation. Forest loss increased significantly (264.8 km² a⁻¹; R² = 0.54, p < 0.01) throughout China, with an average annual increase of 11.4% during 2003–2015. However, the forest loss trend had extensive spatial heterogeneity. Forest loss increased mainly in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest zone (315.0 km² a⁻¹; R² = 0.69, p < 0.01) and tropical rainforest zone (38.8 km² a⁻¹; R² = 0.66, p < 0.01), but the loss of forest decreased in the cold temperate deciduous coniferous forest zone (− 70.8 km² year⁻¹; R² = 0.75, p < 0.01) and the temperate deciduous mixed broadleaf and coniferous forest zone (− 14.4 km² a⁻¹; R² = 0.45, p < 0.05). We found that 1.0% of China’s area had a significant positive correlation (r ≥ 0.55, p < 0.05) with burned areas and 0.3% had a significant negative correlation (r ≤ − 0.55, p < 0.05). In particular, forest loss had a significant positive relationship with the burned area in the cold temperate deciduous coniferous forest zone (16.9% of the lands) and the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest zone (7.8%). These results provide a basis for future predictions of fire-induced forest loss in China.