The overall rate of mortality due to ischemic heart disease is known to increase progressively with age. We evaluated the relation between the mortality rate and age in patients with first myocardial infarctions treated with thrombolytic therapy.

BACKGROUND: Current knowledge of risk assessment in survivors of myocardial infarction is largely based on data gathered before the advent of thrombolysis. It must be determined whether and to what extent available information and proposed criteria of prognostication are applicable in the thrombolytic era. METHODS AND RESULTS: We reassessed risk prediction in the 10,219 survivors of myocardial infarction with follow-up data available (ie, 98% of the total) who had been enrolled in the GISSI-2 trial, relying on a set of prespecified variables. The 3.5% 6-month all-cause mortality rate of these patients compared with the higher value of 4.6% found in the corresponding GISSI-1 cohort, originally allocated to streptokinase therapy, indicates a 24% reduction in postdischarge 6-month mortality. On multivariate analysis (Cox model), the following variables were predictors of 6-month all-cause mortality: ineligibility for exercise test for both cardiac (relative risk [RR], 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.36-4.62) and noncardiac reasons (RR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.23-4.72), early left ventricular failure (RR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.87-3.09), echocardiographic evidence of recovery phase left ventricular dysfunction (RR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.78-2.98), advanced (more than 70 years) age (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.43-2.30), electrical instability (ie, frequent and/or complex ventricular arrhythmias) (RR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.32-2.19), late left ventricular failure (RR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.17-2.03), previous myocardial infarction (RR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.89), and a history of treated hypertension (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.05-1.65). Early post-myocardial infarction angina, a positive exercise test, female sex, history of angina, history of insulin-dependent diabetes, and anterior site of myocardial infarction were not risk predictors. On further multivariate analysis, performed on 8315 patients with the echocardiographic indicator of left ventricular dysfunction available, only previous myocardial infarction was not retained as an independent risk predictor. CONCLUSIONS: A decline in 6-month mortality of myocardial infarction survivors, seen within 6 hours of symptom onset, has been observed in recent years. Ineligibility for exercise test, early left ventricular failure, and recovery-phase left ventricular dysfunction are the most powerful (RR, > 2) predictors of 6-month mortality among patients recovering from myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Qualitative variables reflecting residual myocardial ischemia do not appear to be risk predictors. The lack of an independent adverse influence of early post-myocardial infarction angina on 6-month survival represents a major difference between this study and those of the prethrombolytic era.

BACKGROUND: Several studies performed before the advent of thrombolysis have shown that the presence of ventricular arrhythmias is an independent risk factor for subsequent mortality in patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction. Since fibrinolysis affects the natural history of infarction and may alter the clinical relevance of different risk factors, the aim of the present study was to establish the prevalence and prognostic value of ventricular arrhythmias in post-myocardial infarction patients treated with fibrinolytic agents during the acute phase. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-four-hour Holter recordings obtained before discharge from the hospital in 8,676 post-myocardial infarction patients of the GISSI-2 study were analyzed for the presence of ventricular arrhythmias. Patients were followed for 6 months from the acute event; total and sudden cardiovascular mortality rates were computed, and relative risks in univariate and multivariate analyses were calculated. Ventricular arrhythmias were present in 64.1% of the patients, more than 10 premature ventricular beats per hour were recorded in 19.7% of the patients, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia was present in 6.8% of the patients. Ventricular arrhythmias were more frequent when signs or symptoms of left ventricular damage were present. During follow-up, there was a total of 256 deaths 2.0% in patients without ventricular arrhythmias, 2.7% in patients with one to 10 premature ventricular beats per hour, 5.5% in those with more than 10 premature ventricular beats per hour, and 4.8% in those with complex premature ventricular beats. Even after adjusting for several risk factors, the presence of frequent (more than 10 premature ventricular beats per hour) ventricular arrhythmias remained a significant predictor of total (RRCox, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.26) and sudden mortality (RRCox, 2.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-4.08). On the other hand, the presence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia was not associated with a worsening of the prognosis in the adjusted analysis (RRCox, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.79). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that approximately 36% of patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction presented with less than one premature ventricular beat per hour in Holter recordings obtained before discharge from the hospital, whereas almost 20% of patients showed frequent (more than 10 premature ventricular beats per hour) ventricular arrhythmias. Due to the large size of the population of this study, these figures may be used as a reliable estimate of the prevalence of arrhythmias in postinfarction patients treated with fibrinolytic agents during the acute phase. Frequent premature ventricular beats are confirmed as independent risk factors of total and sudden death in the first 6 months following the acute event; the significance of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia in this population appears more controversial.

Many trials in patients with acute myocardial infarction have demonstrated that thrombolytic therapy is not associated with an excessive risk of stroke, as compared with conventional treatment. However, the incidence of various forms of stroke in patients treated with different thrombolytic and antithrombotic regimens and the associated effect of risk factors for stroke are largely unknown.

Background Studies performed before the introduction of fibrinolysis showed that a low heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with higher mortality in post–myocardial infarction (MI) patients. We evaluated whether HRV adds information relevant to risk stratification in patients treated with fibrinolysis as well. Methods and Results From 24-hour ECG recordings obtained at discharge in patients treated with recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator or streptokinase, we measured several time-domain indexes of HRV: standard deviation (SDNN), root-mean-square of successive differences (RMSSD), and number of RR interval increases >50 ms (“NN50+”). The prognostic value of HRV for total and cardiovascular mortality was assessed. Of 567 patients with valid recordings, 52 (9.1%) died during the 1000 days of follow-up, 44 (7.8%) of cardiovascular causes. All indexes of low HRV were able to identify patients (16% to 18% of total population) with a higher total mortality (20.8% to 24.2% versus 6.0% to 6.8%, depending on index used). The independent predictive value of low HRV was confirmed by the adjusted analysis with the following relative risks: NN50+, 3.5 (95% CI, 1.9 to 6.7); SDNN, 3.0 (95% CI, 1.55 to 5.9); and RMSSD, 2.8 (95% CI, 1.5 to 5.3). Advanced age, previous MI, Killip class at entry, and use of digitalis were also independent predictors. Similar data were obtained for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Time-domain indexes of HRV retain their independent prognostic significance even in post-MI patients of all ages treated with fibrinolysis.