The interactions between atmosphere and steep topography in the eastern south–central Andes result in complex relations with inhomogenous rainfall distributions. The atmospheric conditions leading to deep convection and extreme rainfall and their spatial patterns—both at the valley and mountain-belt scales—are not well understood. In this study, we aim to identify the dominant atmospheric conditions and their spatial variability by analyzing the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and dew-point temperature ( $T_d$ ). We explain the crucial effect of temperature on extreme rainfall generation along the steep climatic and topographic gradients in the NW Argentine Andes stretching from the low-elevation eastern foreland to the high-elevation central Andean Plateau in the west. Our analysis relies on version 2.0 of the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-interim) data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. We make the following key observations: First, we observe distinctive gradients along and across strike of the Andes in dew-point temperature and CAPE that both control rainfall distributions. Second, we identify a nonlinear correlation between rainfall and a combination of dew-point temperature and CAPE through a multivariable regression analysis. The correlation changes in space along the climatic and topographic gradients and helps to explain controlling factors for extreme-rainfall generation. Third, we observe more contribution (or higher importance) of $T_d$ in the tropical low-elevation foreland and intermediate-elevation areas as compared to the high-elevation central Andean Plateau for 90th percentile rainfall. In contrast, we observe a higher contribution of CAPE in the intermediate-elevation area between low and high elevation, especially in the transition zone between the tropical and subtropical areas for the 90th percentile rainfall. Fourth, we find that the parameters of the multivariable regression using CAPE and $T_d$ can explain rainfall with higher statistical significance for the 90th percentile compared to lower rainfall percentiles. Based on our results, the spatial pattern of rainfall-extreme events during the past ∼16 years can be described by a combination of dew-point temperature and CAPE in the south–central Andes.

Atmospheric water vapour content is a key variable that controls the development of deep convective storms and rainfall extremes over the central Andes. Direct measurements of water vapour are challenging; however, recent developments in microwave processing allow the use of phase delays from L-band radar to measure the water vapour content throughout the atmosphere: Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based integrated water vapour (IWV) monitoring shows promising results to measure vertically integrated water vapour at high temporal resolutions. Previous works also identified convective available potential energy (CAPE) as a key climatic variable for the formation of deep convective storms and rainfall in the central Andes. Our analysis relies on GNSS data from the Argentine Continuous Satellite Monitoring Network, Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo (RAMSAC) network from 1999 to 2013. CAPE is derived from version 2.0 of the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-interim) and rainfall from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) product. In this study, we first analyse the rainfall characteristics of two GNSS-IWV stations by comparing their complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Second, we separately derive the relation between rainfall vs. CAPE and GNSS-IWV. Based on our distribution fitting analysis, we observe an exponential relation of rainfall to GNSS-IWV. In contrast, we report a power-law relationship between the daily mean value of rainfall and CAPE at the GNSS-IWV station locations in the eastern central Andes that is close to the theoretical relationship based on parcel theory. Third, we generate a joint regression model through a multivariable regression analysis using CAPE and GNSS-IWV to explain the contribution of both variables in the presence of each other to extreme rainfall during the austral summer season. We found that rainfall can be characterised with a higher statistical significance for higher rainfall quantiles, e.g., the 0.9 quantile based on goodness-of-fit criterion for quantile regression. We observed different contributions of CAPE and GNSS-IWV to rainfall for each station for the 0.9 quantile. Fourth, we identify the temporal relation between extreme rainfall (the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles) and both GNSS-IWV and CAPE at 6 h time steps. We observed an increase before the rainfall event and at the time of peak rainfall—both for GNSS-integrated water vapour and CAPE. We show higher values of CAPE and GNSS-IWV for higher rainfall percentiles (99th and 95th percentiles) compared to the 90th percentile at a 6-h temporal scale. Based on our correlation analyses and the dynamics of the time series, we show that both GNSS-IWV and CAPE had comparable magnitudes, and we argue to consider both climatic variables when investigating their effect on rainfall extremes.

We extended the Linearized ozone scheme – LINOZ in the ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) – ART (the extension for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) model system to include NO_y formed by auroral and medium-energy electrons in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and the corresponding ozone loss, as well as changes in the rate of ozone formation due to the variability of the solar radiation in the ultraviolet wavelength range. This extension allows us to realistically represent variable solar and geomagnetic forcing in the middle atmosphere using a very simple ozone scheme. The LINOZ scheme is computationally very cheap compared to a full middle atmosphere chemistry scheme, yet provides realistic ozone fields consistent with the stratospheric circulation and temperatures, and can thus be used in climate models instead of prescribed ozone climatologies. To include the reactive nitrogen (NO_y) produced by auroral and radiation belt electron precipitation in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere during polar winter, the so-called energetic particle precipitation indirect effect, an upper boundary condition for NO_y has been implemented into the simplified parameterization scheme of the N₂O/NO_y reactions. This parameterization, which uses the geomagnetic A_p index, is also recommended for chemistry-climate models in the CMIP6 experiments. With this extension, the model simulates realistic “tongues” of NO_y propagating downward in polar witner from the model top in the upper mesosphere into the mid-stratosphere with an amplitude that is modulated by geomagnetic activity. We then expanded the simplified ozone description used in the model by applying LINOZ version 3. The additional ozone tendency from NO_y is included by applying the corresponding terms of the version 3 of LINOZ. This NO_y, coupled as an additional term in the linearized ozone chemistry, led to significant ozone losses in the polar upper stratosphere in both hemispheres which is qualitatively in good agreement with ozone observations and model simulations with EPP-NO_y and full stratospheric chemistry. In a subsequent step, the tabulated coefficients forming the basis of the LINOZ scheme were provided separately for solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. These coefficients were then interpolated to ICON-ART using the F10.7 index as a proxy for daily solar spectra (UV) variability to account for solar UV forcing. This solar UV forcing in the model led to changes in ozone in the tropical and mid-latitude stratosphere consistent with observed solar signals in stratospheric ozone.