Summary. In this paper we show that the processes that have shaped the Quaternary surface development of the Apennines in central Italy are all consequences of

We use InSAR and body‐wave seismology to determine independent source parameters for the 6th April 2009 M_w 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake and confirm that the earthquake ruptured a SW‐dipping normal fault with ∼0.6–0.8 m slip. The causative Paganica fault had been neglected relative to other nearby range‐frontal faults, partly because it has a subdued geomorphological expression in comparison with these faults. The L'Aquila earthquake occurred in an area with a marked seismic deficit relative to geodetically determined strain accumulation. We use our source model to calculate stress changes on nearby faults produced by the L'Aquila earthquake and we find that several of these faults have been brought closer to failure.

Here I compare estimates of tectonic strain rates from dense Global Positioning System measurements with the seismicity released in the last ~500 years in the Apennines (Italy). The rates of seismic moment accumulation from geodesy and of historical seismic release by earthquakes agree within the uncertainties, ruling out significant aseismic deformation. Within the considered 400 km long section of the Apennines, this balance yields an average recurrence interval of 30–75 years forM_W≥6.5 events without requiring a future earthquake larger than those observed historically (M_W~7). A minimum estimate of unreleased strain allowsM_W≥6.5 andM_W≥6.9 events to be released in ~35%and ~10%of the central‐southern Apennines, respectively. The definition of the seismic potential for smaller events is more uncertain, and their occurrence remains a significant threat throughout the Apennines.