Monsoon coasts are characterized by active convection, but the features of associated convection initiation (CI) are not well understood. An analysis of kilometer‐resolution radar observations in South China reveals a distinct dependence of CI on monsoon activity, land‐sea contrast, and coastal orography. The CI occurrence becomes highly active after the monsoon onset and extends northward in summer. Several CI hotspots appear on tropical islands, peninsulas, and windward slopes of coastal mountains. Daytime CI occurrences are concentrated on land within 100 km of the coastline. The nocturnal CI maxima are located on coastlines and in the offshore areas with adjacent mountains. CI shows an offshore propagation after midnight prior to rainfall, probably due to the convergence of land breezes or downslope winds with diurnally enhanced onshore monsoon flows. The improved understanding of CI may provide additional benefit for forecasting severe weather because CI foretells the development of full‐fledged deep convection.

A spectral analysis of daily rainfall data has been performed to investigate extreme rainfall events in south China during the presummer rainy seasons between 1998 and 2015 (excluding 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2014). The results reveal a dominant frequency mode at the synoptic scale with pronounced positive rainfall anomalies. By analyzing the synoptic‐scale bandpass‐filtered anomalous circulations, 24 extreme rainfall episodes (defined as those with a daily rainfall amount in the top 5%) are categorized into “cyclone” (15) and “trough” (8) types, with the remaining events as an “anticyclone” type, according to the primary anomalous weather system contributing to each extreme rainfall episode. The 15 cyclone‐type episodes are further separated into (11) lower‐ and (4) upper‐tropospheric migratory anomalies. An analysis of their anomalous fields shows that both types could be traced back to the generation of cyclonic anomalies downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, except for two episodes of lower‐tropospheric migratory anomalies originating over the South China Sea. However, a lower‐tropospheric cyclonic anomaly appears during all phases in the former type, but only in the wettest phase in the latter type, with its peak disturbance occurring immediately beneath an upper‐level warm anomaly. The production of extreme rainfall in the trough‐type episodes is closely related to a deep trough anomaly extending from an intense cyclonic anomaly over north China, which in turn could be traced back to a midlatitude Rossby wave train passing by the Tibetan Plateau. The results have important implications for understanding the origin, structure, and evolution of synoptic disturbances associated with the presummer extreme rainfall in south China.

A dataset of convection initiation (CI) is of great value in studying the triggering mechanisms of deep moist convection and evaluating the performances of numerical models. In recent years, the data quality of the operationally generated radar mosaics over China has been greatly improved, which provides an opportunity to retrieve a CI dataset from that region. In this work, an attempt is made to reveal the potential of applying a simple framework of objective CI detection for the study of CI climatology in China. The framework was tested using radar mosaic maps in South China that were accessible online. The identified CI events were validated in both direct and indirect ways. On the basis of a direct manual check, nearly all of the identified CI cells had an organized motion. The precipitation echoes of the cells had a median duration of approximately 2.5 h. The CI occurrences were further compared with rainfall estimates to ensure physical consistency. The diurnal cycle of CI occurrence exhibits three major modes: a late-night-to-morning peak at the windward coasts and offshore, a noon-to-late-afternoon peak on the coastal land, and an evening-to-early-morning peak over the northwestern highland. These spatial modes agree well with those of rainfall, indirectly suggesting the reliability of the CI statistics. By processing radar mosaic maps, such a framework could be applied for studying CI climatology over China and other regions.

This work presents an integrated damage, visual, and radar analysis of a tropical cyclone (TC) tornado that has not been documented as detailed as midlatitude tornadoes. On 4 October 2015, an enhanced Fujita 3 (EF3) tornado spawned into Typhoon Mujigae and hit Foshan, Guangdong Province, China. This tornado was generated in a minisupercell ∼350 km northeast of the TC center and lasted about 32 minutes, leaving a southeast-to-northwest damage swath 30.85 km long and 20–570 m wide. Near-surface wind patterns and the size of the tornado, juxtaposition of the condensation funnel with the damage swath and radar signatures, and consistency between near-surface wind speed estimated from visual observations and that estimated using EF scale were revealed based on ground and aerial surveys, radar and surface observations, photographs, and tornado videos. Tornado videos showed two occurrences of vertical subvortices followed by the formation of a horizontal vortex. Some features of the tornado, the parent supercell and mesocyclone, and the convective environment were compared to their U.S. counterparts. This work provides a case review of a tornado with the most comprehensive information ever in China. Damage indicators used to estimate the tornado intensity in this Chinese case were compared with those in the United States, demonstrating the potential applicability of the EF scale in tornado damage surveys outside the United States.

A direct piece-by-piece data assimilation targeting strategy through observing system simulation experiments was used to examine the quality of the target area for forecast metrics with different nonlinearities in a mesoscale convective vortex–associated rainfall event from both a deterministic and probabilistic perspective. The target area was determined based on the impact of assimilating synthetic wind-profiler observations, piece by piece, on the forecast error of strongly nonlinear rainfall and weakly nonlinear total energy around the initial vortex center. The quality of the target area in terms of its effectiveness and variability was examined for members of a reasonable ensemble. Apparently different target areas were found for different members, even for those with very small differences for both forecast metrics, with a larger variability observed for rainfall than for total energy. This result indicated that target areas estimated in deterministic scenarios are likely unreliable. Probabilistic target areas were created by averaging data-impact index values over the ensemble. Significant differences were also observed in the ensemble-based target areas for rainfall and total energy. For total energy, assimilating data in an inaccurate target area could decrease the forecast error at a similar magnitude as that in the target area. For rainfall, however, much less error reduction was obtained, the magnitude of which was almost comparable to the no-data-assimilation experiment. Overall, the results of this study suggest that designing a particular observation plan based on an estimated target area could be unnecessary for total energy and useless for rainfall, given the difficulty involved in accurately determining a target area in an operational setting.