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Adnan A. Tahir
COMSATS Institute of Information Technology

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Original article
Published: 07 May 2021 in Environmental Earth Sciences
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Marble Processing Plants (MPP) are included in the list of environmentally unfriendly units since they generate a large amount of waste as sawdust, marble debris, and sludge. The produced waste causes environmental problems for the flora and fauna both aquatic and terrestrial environments. This paper is based on a geospatial survey modeling, where pollution hotspots are identified through geospatial proximity analysis. Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) quantitatively examines the material inputs and outputs of MPP products. The integration of the quantitative assessment and geospatial survey presents a conclusive model of the MPPs in proximity to different land-use classes including agriculture, water bodies, settlement, and barren land. Due to the presence of massive marble reserves in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, the area is passing through a worst ecological implication phase. The marble-processing plants generate huge quantity of waste as marble stone in irregular pieces and slurry. More than 150 marble-processing plants in the study area are contributing to such environmental damages in different forms. Currently, no proper management system exists to handle this discharged/dumped marble waste. The study describes the pollution hotspots and their potential impacts on different segments of the environment. This approach can be used worldwide in environmental monitoring and planning, as a decision support tool.

ACS Style

Muhammad Fawad; Farid Ullah; Muhammad Irshad; Wisal Shah; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Qaisar Mehmood; Toqeer Ahmed. Pollution hotspots and potential impacts on land use in the Mohmand Marble Zone, Pakistan. Environmental Earth Sciences 2021, 80, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Muhammad Fawad, Farid Ullah, Muhammad Irshad, Wisal Shah, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Qaisar Mehmood, Toqeer Ahmed. Pollution hotspots and potential impacts on land use in the Mohmand Marble Zone, Pakistan. Environmental Earth Sciences. 2021; 80 (10):1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Fawad; Farid Ullah; Muhammad Irshad; Wisal Shah; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Qaisar Mehmood; Toqeer Ahmed. 2021. "Pollution hotspots and potential impacts on land use in the Mohmand Marble Zone, Pakistan." Environmental Earth Sciences 80, no. 10: 1-12.

Journal article
Published: 09 September 2020 in Remote Sensing
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Previous studies have shown that glacier changes were heterogeneous in the western Karakoram, with the coexistence of retreating, advancing, and surging glaciers. However, it remains unclear that the mechanisms driving these changes. Based on the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM and TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X images (2014), this study presents glacier surface height changes in the Hunza Basin of the western Karakoram, employing the method of differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR). A slight negative glacier mass balance was observed in the Hunza Basin during 2000–2014. Surge-type glaciers would not have an obvious effect on overall mass balance in regional assessments over long-time scales. Further, glacier surface velocities in the Hunza Basin were estimated from Landsat images for the period of 1990–2018 by utilizing published data sets and Landsat images. Compared to the annual glacier surface velocities, 22 surge events were observed in seven surge-type glaciers in the Hunza Basin. Glacier flow can be attributed to thermally and hydrologically control, and the geomorphological characteristics of different individuals. This study gives us a new insight into the situation of the “Karakoram anomaly” under the background of glacier mass loss in the high mountains of Asia (HMA).

ACS Style

Kunpeng Wu; Shiyin Liu; Zongli Jiang; Yu Zhu; Fuming Xie; Yongpeng Gao; Ying Yi; Adnan Tahir; Saifullah Muhammad. Surging Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hunza Valley under an Equilibrium Mass State since 1990. Remote Sensing 2020, 12, 2922 .

AMA Style

Kunpeng Wu, Shiyin Liu, Zongli Jiang, Yu Zhu, Fuming Xie, Yongpeng Gao, Ying Yi, Adnan Tahir, Saifullah Muhammad. Surging Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hunza Valley under an Equilibrium Mass State since 1990. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12 (18):2922.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kunpeng Wu; Shiyin Liu; Zongli Jiang; Yu Zhu; Fuming Xie; Yongpeng Gao; Ying Yi; Adnan Tahir; Saifullah Muhammad. 2020. "Surging Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hunza Valley under an Equilibrium Mass State since 1990." Remote Sensing 12, no. 18: 2922.

Erratum
Published: 25 July 2020 in Journal of Mountain Science
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The article Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018, written by Jawaria GUL, Sher MUHAMMAD, LIU Shi-yin, Siddique ULLAH, Shakeel AHMAD, Huma HAYAT and Adnan Ahmad TAHIR, was originally published Online First without Open Access. After publication in volume 17, issue 3, page 572-587, the author decided to opt for Open Choice and to make the article an Open Access publication. Therefore, the copyright of the article has been changed to © The Author(s) 2020 and the article is forthwith distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, duplication, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The original version of this article has been revised due to a retrospective Open Access order.

ACS Style

Jawaria Gul; Sher Muhammad; Shi-Yin Liu; Siddique Ullah; Shakeel Ahmad; Huma Hayat; Adnan Ahmad Tahir. Erratum to: Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018. Journal of Mountain Science 2020, 17, 2048 -2048.

AMA Style

Jawaria Gul, Sher Muhammad, Shi-Yin Liu, Siddique Ullah, Shakeel Ahmad, Huma Hayat, Adnan Ahmad Tahir. Erratum to: Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018. Journal of Mountain Science. 2020; 17 (8):2048-2048.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jawaria Gul; Sher Muhammad; Shi-Yin Liu; Siddique Ullah; Shakeel Ahmad; Huma Hayat; Adnan Ahmad Tahir. 2020. "Erratum to: Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018." Journal of Mountain Science 17, no. 8: 2048-2048.

Original research article
Published: 23 July 2020 in Frontiers in Earth Science
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Supra-glacial debris cover is key to glacier ablation through increasing (thin debris layer) or decreasing (thick debris layer) melt rates, thereby regulating the mass balance of a glacier and its meltwater runoff. The thickening or lateral expansion of supra-glacial debris cover correlates with a reduction of glacier ablation and, consequently, runoff generation, which is also considered to be an influential factor on the rheology and dynamics of a glacierized system. Studies on supra-glacial debris cover have recently attracted wide attention especially for glaciers in the Himalayas and Karakoram, where the glaciers have heterogeneously responded to climate change. In this study, we used 32 images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper, Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Operational Land Imager archive, going back to 1990, which are available on the Google Earth Engine cloud-computing platform, to map the supra-glacial debris cover in the Hunza Valley, Karakoram, Pakistan, based on a band ratio segmentation method (normalized difference snow index [NDSI] < 0.4), Otsu thresholding, and machine learning algorithms. Compared with manual digitization, the random forest (RF) model was found to have the greatest accuracy in identifying supra-glacial debris, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.94 ± 0.01 and an overall accuracy of 95.5 ± 0.9%. Overall, the supra-glacial debris cover in the study area showed an increasing trend, and the total area expanded by 8.1–21.3% for various glaciers from 1990 to 2019. The other two methods (Otsu thresholding and NDSI < 0.4) generally overestimated the supra-glacial debris covered area, by 36.3 and 18.8%, respectively, compared to that of the RF model. The supra-glacial debris cover has migrated upward on the glaciers, with intensive variation near the equilibrium-line altitude zone (4,500–5,500 m a.s.l.). The increase in ice or snow avalanche activity at high altitudes may be responsible for this upward expansion of supra-glacial debris cover in the Hunza Valley, which is attributed to the combined effect of temperature decrease and precipitation increase in the study area.

ACS Style

Fuming Xie; Shiyin Liu; Kunpeng Wu; Yu Zhu; Yongpeng Gao; Miaomiao Qi; Shimei Duan; Muhammad Saifullah; Adnan Tahir. Upward Expansion of Supra-Glacial Debris Cover in the Hunza Valley, Karakoram, During 1990 ∼ 2019. Frontiers in Earth Science 2020, 8, 1 .

AMA Style

Fuming Xie, Shiyin Liu, Kunpeng Wu, Yu Zhu, Yongpeng Gao, Miaomiao Qi, Shimei Duan, Muhammad Saifullah, Adnan Tahir. Upward Expansion of Supra-Glacial Debris Cover in the Hunza Valley, Karakoram, During 1990 ∼ 2019. Frontiers in Earth Science. 2020; 8 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fuming Xie; Shiyin Liu; Kunpeng Wu; Yu Zhu; Yongpeng Gao; Miaomiao Qi; Shimei Duan; Muhammad Saifullah; Adnan Tahir. 2020. "Upward Expansion of Supra-Glacial Debris Cover in the Hunza Valley, Karakoram, During 1990 ∼ 2019." Frontiers in Earth Science 8, no. : 1.

Article
Published: 12 March 2020 in Journal of Mountain Science
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Glaciers in the northern Pakistan are a distinctive source of freshwater for the irrigation, drinking and industrial water supplies of the people living in those regions and downstream. These glaciers are under a direct global warming impact as indicated in many previous studies. In this study, we estimated the glacier dynamics in terms of Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA), mass balance and the snout position variation using remote sensing data between 2001 and 2018. Six glaciers, having area ≥ 20 km2 each, situated in the Chitral region (Hindukush Mountains) were investigated in this study. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and available cloud-free continuous series of Landsat and Sentinel the entire study area was a retreat of -231 ± 140 m. No obvious relationship was found between the glacier variation trends and the available gauged climatic data possibly due to the presence of debris cover in ablation zones of all the studied glaciers which provides insulation and reduces the immediate climatic effects.

ACS Style

Jawaria Gul; Sher Muhammad; Shi-Yin Liu; Siddique Ullah; Shakeel Ahmad; Huma Hayat; Adnan Ahmad Tahir. Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018. Journal of Mountain Science 2020, 17, 572 -587.

AMA Style

Jawaria Gul, Sher Muhammad, Shi-Yin Liu, Siddique Ullah, Shakeel Ahmad, Huma Hayat, Adnan Ahmad Tahir. Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018. Journal of Mountain Science. 2020; 17 (3):572-587.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jawaria Gul; Sher Muhammad; Shi-Yin Liu; Siddique Ullah; Shakeel Ahmad; Huma Hayat; Adnan Ahmad Tahir. 2020. "Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin (Hindukush Region of Pakistan) between 2001 and 2018." Journal of Mountain Science 17, no. 3: 572-587.

Journal article
Published: 11 February 2020 in Sustainability
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Projecting future hydrology for the mountainous, highly glaciated upper Indus basin (UIB) is a challenging task because of uncertainties in future climate projections and issues with the coverage and quality of available reference climatic data and hydrological modelling approaches. This study attempts to address these issues by utilizing the semi-distributed hydrological model “Soil and water assessment tool” (SWAT) with new climate datasets and better spatial and altitudinal representation as well as a wider range of future climate forcing models (general circulation model/regional climate model combinations (GCMs_RCMs) from the “Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project to assess different aspects of future hydrology (mean flows, extremes and seasonal changes). Contour maps for the mean annual flow and actual evapotranspiration as a function of the downscaled projected mean annual precipitation and temperatures are produced and can serve as a “hands-on” forecast tool of future hydrology. The overall results of these future SWAT hydrological projections indicate similar trends of changes in magnitudes, seasonal patterns and extremes of the UIB—stream flows for almost all climate scenarios/models/periods—combinations analyzed. In particular, all but one GCM_RCM model—the one predicting a very high future temperature rise—indicated mean annual flow increases throughout the 21st century, wherefore, interestingly, these are stronger for the middle years (2041–2070) than at its end (2071–2100). The seasonal shifts as well as the extremes follow also similar trends for all climate scenario/model/period combinations, e.g., an earlier future arrival (in May–June instead of July–August) of high flows and increased spring and winter flows, with upper flow extremes (peaks) projected to drastically increase by 50 to >100%, and with significantly decreased annual recurrence intervals, i.e., a tremendously increased future flood hazard for the UIB. The future low flows projections also show more extreme values, with lower-than-nowadays-experienced minimal flows occurring more frequently and with much longer annual total duration.

ACS Style

Asim Khan; Manfred Koch; Adnan Tahir. Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Availability, Seasonality and Extremes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Sustainability 2020, 12, 1283 .

AMA Style

Asim Khan, Manfred Koch, Adnan Tahir. Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Availability, Seasonality and Extremes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Sustainability. 2020; 12 (4):1283.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Asim Khan; Manfred Koch; Adnan Tahir. 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Availability, Seasonality and Extremes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB)." Sustainability 12, no. 4: 1283.

Research article
Published: 12 December 2019 in Geocarto International
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Seasonal and annual water supplies of the rivers originating in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan are important to manage the Indus basin irrigation system for better agricultural production and its dependent agrarian economy. In this study, we simulated the current and future snowmelt runoff in a poorly gauged river basin of the Hindukush region under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) furnished with satellite snow cover maps and hydro-meteorological data were used to simulate the daily river discharge for the period 2000‒2005. The results indicated that SRM has effectually simulated the runoff in Chitral River with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.85 (0.84) and 0.88 (0.83) in the basin-wide (zone-wise) application during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The results obtained under future climate change scenario showed ∼14‒19% increase in mean summer discharge under three mid-21st century RCP (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. While an increase of ∼13‒37% is expected under late-21st century RCP scenarios. This study can help water resource managers to plan and manage peak discharges from the Chitral River Basin in the future and can thus prevent major losses due to floods in the area.

ACS Style

Huma Hayat; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Sara Wajid; Arshad Mehmood Abbassi; Fatima Zubair; Zia Ur Rehman Hashmi; Asif Khan; Asim Jahangir Khan; Muhammad Irshad. Simulation of the meltwater under different climate change scenarios in a poorly gauged snow and glacier-fed Chitral River catchment (Hindukush region). Geocarto International 2019, 1 -17.

AMA Style

Huma Hayat, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Sara Wajid, Arshad Mehmood Abbassi, Fatima Zubair, Zia Ur Rehman Hashmi, Asif Khan, Asim Jahangir Khan, Muhammad Irshad. Simulation of the meltwater under different climate change scenarios in a poorly gauged snow and glacier-fed Chitral River catchment (Hindukush region). Geocarto International. 2019; ():1-17.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Huma Hayat; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Sara Wajid; Arshad Mehmood Abbassi; Fatima Zubair; Zia Ur Rehman Hashmi; Asif Khan; Asim Jahangir Khan; Muhammad Irshad. 2019. "Simulation of the meltwater under different climate change scenarios in a poorly gauged snow and glacier-fed Chitral River catchment (Hindukush region)." Geocarto International , no. : 1-17.

Journal article
Published: 03 October 2019 in Sustainability
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Population growth and population inflow from other regions has caused urbanization which altered land use land cover (LULC) in the lower Himalayan regions of Pakistan. This LULC change increased the land surface temperature (LST) in the region. LULC and LST changes were assessed for the period of 1990–2017 using Landsat data and the support vector machine (SVM) method. A combined cellular automata and artificial neural network (CA-ANN) prediction model was used for simulation of LULC changes for the period of 2032 and 2047 using transition potential matrix obtained from the data years of 2002 and 2017. The accuracy of the CA-ANN model was validated using simulated and classified images of 2017 with correctness value of 70% using validation modules in QGIS. The thermal bands of Landsat images from the years 1990, 2002 and 2017 were used for LST derivation. LST acquired for this period was then modeled for 2032 and 2047 using urban indices (UI) and linear regression analysis. The SVM land cover classification results showed a 5.75% and 4.22% increase in built-up area and bare soil respectively, while vegetation declined by 9.88% during 1990–2017. The results of LST for LULC classes showed that the built-up area had the highest mean LST as compared to other classes. The future projection of LULC and LST showed that the built-up area may increase by 12.48% and 14.65% in 2032 and 2047, respectively, of the total LULC area which was ~11% in 2017. Similarly, the area with temperature above 30 °C could be 44.01% and 58.02% in 2032 and 2047, respectively, of the total study area which was 18.64% in 2017. This study identified major challenges for urban planners to mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. In order to address the UHI in the study area, an urban planner might focus on urban plantation and decentralization of urban areas.

ACS Style

Siddique Ullah; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Tahir Ali Akbar; Quazi K. Hassan; Ashraf Dewan; Asim Jahangir Khan. Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Relationships between Land Use Land Cover Changes and Surface Temperature over the Lower Himalayan Region. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5492 .

AMA Style

Siddique Ullah, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Tahir Ali Akbar, Quazi K. Hassan, Ashraf Dewan, Asim Jahangir Khan. Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Relationships between Land Use Land Cover Changes and Surface Temperature over the Lower Himalayan Region. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (19):5492.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Siddique Ullah; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Tahir Ali Akbar; Quazi K. Hassan; Ashraf Dewan; Asim Jahangir Khan. 2019. "Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Relationships between Land Use Land Cover Changes and Surface Temperature over the Lower Himalayan Region." Sustainability 11, no. 19: 5492.

Journal article
Published: 20 August 2019 in Atmospheric Research
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A major portion of Pakistan's economy is based on cultivated lands which are irrigated from the supply of water from Upper Indus River Basins (UIB). Any change in UIB rivers flows may come with catastrophic events and therefore, will destructively affect Pakistan's economy. By aiming this scenario, an uneven and important climate variable (i.e., precipitation) obtained from different gridded and satellite datasets were used for its statistical and hydrological performance evaluation in UIB catchments for the period of 2000 to 2004. In addition, a bias corrected technique and snow cover product (MOD10A2) was also used to enhance the performance of precipitation data sets to obtain realistic discharge simulations. The results indicated that without correcting the biases from the datasets, only APHRODITE precipitation dataset showed higher correlation with observations compared to other precipitation datasets in Hunza River Basin (HRB) with correlation coefficient of (0.44) & and in Gilgit River Basin (GRB) (0.35), respectively. However, after applying bias correction technique (quantile mapping), the performance of precipitation datasets significantly improved. For GRB, correlation coefficient and root mean square values improved up to 48% & 55%, while for HRB up to 53% & 51%, respectively. Likewise, based on hydrological utility which was implied by the well-known hydrological model (snowmelt runoff model), bias corrected CHIRPS and APHRODITE precipitation datasets displayed best performance in simulating the discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (0.82 & 0.90) & correlation coefficient (0.83 & 0.84) in HRB and (0.84 & 0.80) and (0.86 & 0.82) in GRB, respectively. Moreover, recalibration was also carried out to assess how the hydrological model can adjust and tolerate the errors of different precipitation data products. The results revealed that after adjusting the model parameters particularly coefficient of rainfall and coefficient of snow, the performance of data products significantly improved in terms of the difference in volumes against in situ measurements. Overall, this study may assist, provide guidelines and efficiently used for snowmelt runoff model coupled with different precipitation datasets for management of Indus River irrigation system of Pakistan.

ACS Style

Muhammad Abrar Faiz; Dong Liu; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Heng Li; Qiang Fu; Muhammad Adnan; Liangliang Zhang; Farah Naz. Comprehensive evaluation of 0.25° precipitation datasets combined with MOD10A2 snow cover data in the ice-dominated river basins of Pakistan. Atmospheric Research 2019, 231, 104653 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Abrar Faiz, Dong Liu, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Heng Li, Qiang Fu, Muhammad Adnan, Liangliang Zhang, Farah Naz. Comprehensive evaluation of 0.25° precipitation datasets combined with MOD10A2 snow cover data in the ice-dominated river basins of Pakistan. Atmospheric Research. 2019; 231 ():104653.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Abrar Faiz; Dong Liu; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Heng Li; Qiang Fu; Muhammad Adnan; Liangliang Zhang; Farah Naz. 2019. "Comprehensive evaluation of 0.25° precipitation datasets combined with MOD10A2 snow cover data in the ice-dominated river basins of Pakistan." Atmospheric Research 231, no. : 104653.

Journal article
Published: 31 May 2019 in Journal of Environmental Management
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Rapid urbanization is changing the existing patterns of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) globally which is consequently increasing the Land Surface Temperature (LST) in many regions. Present study was focused on estimating the current and simulating the future LULC and LST trends in the alpine environment of lower Himalayan region of Pakistan. Past patterns of LULC and LST were identified through the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and multi-spectral Landsat satellite images during 1987–2017 data period. The Cellular automata (CA) model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were applied to simulate future (years 2032 and 2047) LULC and LST changes, respectively, using their past patterns. CA model was validated for the simulated and the estimated LULC for the year 2017 with an overall Kappa (K) value of 0.77 using validation modules in QGIS and IDRISI software. ANN method was validated by correlating the observed and simulated LST for the year 2017 with correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Square Error (MSE) values of 0.81 and 0.51, respectively. Results indicated a change in the LULC and LST for instance the built-up area was increased by 4.43% while agricultural area and bare soil were reduced by 2.74% and 4.42%, respectively, from 1987 to 2017. The analysis of LST for different LULC classes indicated that built-up area has highest temperature followed by barren, agriculture and vegetation surfaces. Simulation of future LULC and LST showed that the built-up area will be increased by 2.27% (in 2032) and 4.13% (in 2047) which led 42% (in 2032) and 60% (in 2047) of the study area as compared to 26% area (in 2017) to experience LST greater than 27 °C. A strong correlation between built-up area changes and LST was thus found signifying major challenge to urban planners mitigating the consequent of Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. It is suggested that future urban planning should focus on urban plantation to counter UHI phenomena in the region of lower Himalayas.

ACS Style

Siddique Ullah; Khalid Ahmad; Raja Umer Sajjad; Arshad Mehmnood Abbasi; Abdul Nazeer; Adnan Ahmad Tahir. Analysis and simulation of land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperature in a lower Himalayan region. Journal of Environmental Management 2019, 245, 348 -357.

AMA Style

Siddique Ullah, Khalid Ahmad, Raja Umer Sajjad, Arshad Mehmnood Abbasi, Abdul Nazeer, Adnan Ahmad Tahir. Analysis and simulation of land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperature in a lower Himalayan region. Journal of Environmental Management. 2019; 245 ():348-357.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Siddique Ullah; Khalid Ahmad; Raja Umer Sajjad; Arshad Mehmnood Abbasi; Abdul Nazeer; Adnan Ahmad Tahir. 2019. "Analysis and simulation of land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperature in a lower Himalayan region." Journal of Environmental Management 245, no. : 348-357.

Journal article
Published: 12 April 2019 in Water
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Upper Indus Basin (UIB) supplies more than 70% flow to the downstream agricultural areas during summer due to the melting of snow and glacial ice. The estimation of the stream flow under future climatic projections is a pre-requisite to manage water resources properly. This study focused on the simulation of snowmelt-runoff using Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) under the current and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) climate scenarios in the two main tributaries of the UIB namely the Astore and the Hunza River basins. Remote sensing data from Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) along with in-situ hydro-climatic data was used as input to the SRM. Basin-wide and zone-wise approaches were used in the SRM. For the zone-wise approach, basin areas were sliced into five elevation zones and the mean temperature for the zones with no weather stations was estimated using a lapse rate value of −0.48 °C to −0.76 °C/100 m in both studied basins. Zonal snow cover was estimated for each zone by reclassifying the MODIS snow maps according to the zonal boundaries. SRM was calibrated over 2000–2001 and validated over the 2002–2004 data period. The results implied that the SRM simulated the river flow efficiently with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.90 (0.86) and 0.86 (0.86) for the basin-wide (zone-wise) approach in the Astore and Hunza River Basins, respectively, over the entire simulation period. Mean annual discharge was projected to increase by 11–58% and 14–90% in the Astore and Hunza River Basins, respectively, under all the RCP mid- and late-21st-century scenarios. Mean summer discharge was projected to increase between 10–60% under all the RCP scenarios of mid- and late-21st century in the Astore and Hunza basins. This study suggests that the water resources of Pakistan should be managed properly to lessen the damage to human lives, agriculture, and economy posed by expected future floods as indicated by the climatic projections.

ACS Style

Huma Hayat; Tahir Ali Akbar; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Quazi K. Hassan; Ashraf Dewan; Muhammad Irshad. Simulating Current and Future River-Flows in the Karakoram and Himalayan Regions of Pakistan Using Snowmelt-Runoff Model and RCP Scenarios. Water 2019, 11, 761 .

AMA Style

Huma Hayat, Tahir Ali Akbar, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Quazi K. Hassan, Ashraf Dewan, Muhammad Irshad. Simulating Current and Future River-Flows in the Karakoram and Himalayan Regions of Pakistan Using Snowmelt-Runoff Model and RCP Scenarios. Water. 2019; 11 (4):761.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Huma Hayat; Tahir Ali Akbar; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Quazi K. Hassan; Ashraf Dewan; Muhammad Irshad. 2019. "Simulating Current and Future River-Flows in the Karakoram and Himalayan Regions of Pakistan Using Snowmelt-Runoff Model and RCP Scenarios." Water 11, no. 4: 761.

Chapter
Published: 05 January 2019 in The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment
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The cryosphere is defined by the presence of frozen water in its many forms: glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, snow, permafrost, and river and lake ice. In the extended Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, including the Pamirs, Tien Shan and Alatua, the cryosphere is a key freshwater resource, playing a vital and significant role in local and regional hydrology and ecology. Industry, agriculture, and hydroelectric power generation rely on timely and sufficient delivery of water in major river systems; changes in the cryospheric system may thus pose challenges for disaster risk reduction in the extended HKH region.

ACS Style

Tobias Bolch; Joseph M. Shea; Shiyin Liu; Farooq M. Azam; Yang Gao; Stephan Gruber; Walter W. Immerzeel; Anil Kulkarni; Huilin Li; Adnan A. Tahir; Guoqing Zhang; Yinsheng Zhang. Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region. The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment 2019, 209 -255.

AMA Style

Tobias Bolch, Joseph M. Shea, Shiyin Liu, Farooq M. Azam, Yang Gao, Stephan Gruber, Walter W. Immerzeel, Anil Kulkarni, Huilin Li, Adnan A. Tahir, Guoqing Zhang, Yinsheng Zhang. Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region. The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. 2019; ():209-255.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tobias Bolch; Joseph M. Shea; Shiyin Liu; Farooq M. Azam; Yang Gao; Stephan Gruber; Walter W. Immerzeel; Anil Kulkarni; Huilin Li; Adnan A. Tahir; Guoqing Zhang; Yinsheng Zhang. 2019. "Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya Region." The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment , no. : 209-255.

Articles
Published: 23 October 2018 in Geocarto International
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In many parts of the world, including the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) region, the population depends on snow and glaciers-melt waters to grow food, generate electricity and store water for their use throughout the year. The annual and seasonal variation in the snow cover area (SCA) due to its response to the climatic variables directly influences the water supplies. The aim of current study is to evaluate the spatio-temporal trends in the annual and seasonal snow cover at basin-wide scale. Impact of topography on the SCA is analyzed by revealing the trends in SCA in different elevation bands. It also investigates the trends in hydro-climatic factors (temperature, precipitation and river flows) in the Chitral River basin (Hindukush region) and their linkage to the SCA variations. Snow cover is estimated using cloud-free 8-day MODIS snow products on 17-year time-period (2000‒2016). Hydro-climatic data of the river flow (1989–2014), temperature, and precipitation (1965–2013) were obtained from Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Trend analysis of the SCA and hydro-climatic variables was carried out using Mann-Kendall’s trend test and Sen’s slope. The results reveal: 1) a significant increasing trend in the SCA at basin-wide scale and at all elevation zones i.e. A to E (1471‒7708 m ASL), except zone B (2500‒3500 m ASL), 2) decreasing and constant trends in the mean temperature and total precipitation, respectively, over the same time-period as SCA indicating possible reasons for increasing SCA, 3) a slight decrease in the mean annual and summer flow (1989–2014) possibly due to the summer cooling, reduced snowmelt and slightly decreasing summer precipitation over this time-period, and 4) strong dependency of the Chitral River flow on snowmelt, driven by the temperature seasonality. Modeling snowmelt runoff under future climate projections in the study area may help to manage the water resources properly.

ACS Style

Shakeel Ahmad; Muhammad Israr; Shiyin Liu; Huma Hayat; Jawaria Gul; Sara Wajid; Muhammad Ashraf; Siddique Ullah Baig; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Jaweria Gul. Spatio-temporal trends in snow extent and their linkage to hydro-climatological and topographical factors in the Chitral River Basin (Hindukush, Pakistan). Geocarto International 2018, 35, 711 -734.

AMA Style

Shakeel Ahmad, Muhammad Israr, Shiyin Liu, Huma Hayat, Jawaria Gul, Sara Wajid, Muhammad Ashraf, Siddique Ullah Baig, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Jaweria Gul. Spatio-temporal trends in snow extent and their linkage to hydro-climatological and topographical factors in the Chitral River Basin (Hindukush, Pakistan). Geocarto International. 2018; 35 (7):711-734.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Shakeel Ahmad; Muhammad Israr; Shiyin Liu; Huma Hayat; Jawaria Gul; Sara Wajid; Muhammad Ashraf; Siddique Ullah Baig; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Jaweria Gul. 2018. "Spatio-temporal trends in snow extent and their linkage to hydro-climatological and topographical factors in the Chitral River Basin (Hindukush, Pakistan)." Geocarto International 35, no. 7: 711-734.

Article
Published: 07 September 2018 in Journal of Mountain Science
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Within Karakoram Himalaya, Hunza River Basin (study area) is unique for a number of reasons: 1) potential impacts of highly concentrated high-pitched mountains and glacial ice; 2) the glaciated portions have higher mean altitude as compared to other glaciated landscapes in the Karakoram; 3) this basin occupies varieties of both clean and debris-covered glaciers and/or ice. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the stability of topographic surface and potential implications of fluctuating glacial-ice causing variations in the movement of material from higher to lower elevations. This paper advocates landscape-level hypsometric investigations of glaciated landscape lies between 2280–7850 m elevation above sea level and non-glaciated landscape between 1461–7570 m. An attempt is made to understand intermediate elevations, which disguise the characteristics of glaciated hypsometries that are highly correlated with the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA). However, due to data scarcity for high altitude regions especially above 5000 m elevation, literature values for climatic conditions are used to create a relationship between hypsometry and variations in climate and ELA. The largest glaciated area (29.22%) between 5047 to 5555 m lies in the vertical regime of direct snow-accumulation zone and in the horizontal regime of net-accumulation zone (low velocity, net freezing, and no-sliding). In both landscapes, the hypsometric curves are ‘slow beginning’ followed by ‘steep progress’ and finally reaching a ‘plateau’, reflecting the rapid altitudinal changes and the dominance of fluvial transport resulting in the denudation of land-dwelling and the transport of rock/debris from higher to lower altitudes. Reported slight differences in the average normalized bin altitudes against the cumulative normalized area between glaciated and non-glaciated landscapes are an indicator of slightly different land-forms and landform changes.

ACS Style

Siddique Ullah Baig; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Ahmad Din; Humaira Khan. Hypsometric properties of mountain landscape of Hunza River Basin of the Karakoram Himalaya. Journal of Mountain Science 2018, 15, 1881 -1891.

AMA Style

Siddique Ullah Baig, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Ahmad Din, Humaira Khan. Hypsometric properties of mountain landscape of Hunza River Basin of the Karakoram Himalaya. Journal of Mountain Science. 2018; 15 (9):1881-1891.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Siddique Ullah Baig; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Ahmad Din; Humaira Khan. 2018. "Hypsometric properties of mountain landscape of Hunza River Basin of the Karakoram Himalaya." Journal of Mountain Science 15, no. 9: 1881-1891.

Original articles
Published: 01 September 2017 in International Journal of Digital Earth
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Pakistan is an agriculture-based economy and major proportion of irrigation water for its cultivated lands is abstracted from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). UIB water supplies are mostly contributed from the high-altitude snow and glacier fields situated in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalayan ranges. Any change in the flows of these river catchments due to climate variability may result in the form of catastrophic events like floods and droughts and hence will adversely affect the economy of Pakistan. This study aims to simulate snowmelt runoff in a mountainous sub-catchment (Shyok River basin) of the UIB under climate change scenarios. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) coupled with remotely sensed snow cover product (MOD10A2) is used to simulate the snowmelt runoff under current and future climate scenarios in the study area. The results indicate that (a) SRM has efficiently simulated the flow in Shyok River with average Nash–Sutcliff coefficient value (R2) of 0.8 (0.63–0.93) for all six years (2000–2006) of basin-wide and zone-wise simulations, (b) an increase of 10% (by 2050) and 20% (by 2075) in SCA will result in a flow rise of ∼11% and ∼20%, respectively, and (c) an increase of 1°C (by 2025), 2°C (by 2050), 3°C (by 2075) and 4°C (by 2100) in mean temperature will result in a flow rise of ∼26%, ∼54%, ∼81% and ∼118%, respectively. This study suggests that SRM equipped with remotely sensed snow cover data is an effective tool to estimate snowmelt runoff in high mountain data-scarce environments.

ACS Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Samreen Abdul Hakeem; Tiesong Hu; Huma Hayat; Muhammad Yasir. Simulation of snowmelt-runoff under climate change scenarios in a data-scarce mountain environment. International Journal of Digital Earth 2017, 12, 910 -930.

AMA Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Samreen Abdul Hakeem, Tiesong Hu, Huma Hayat, Muhammad Yasir. Simulation of snowmelt-runoff under climate change scenarios in a data-scarce mountain environment. International Journal of Digital Earth. 2017; 12 (8):910-930.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Samreen Abdul Hakeem; Tiesong Hu; Huma Hayat; Muhammad Yasir. 2017. "Simulation of snowmelt-runoff under climate change scenarios in a data-scarce mountain environment." International Journal of Digital Earth 12, no. 8: 910-930.

Journal article
Published: 09 March 2016 in Theoretical and Applied Climatology
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The Upper Indus Basin (UIB), situated in the Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush (HKH) mountain ranges, is the major contributor to the supply of water for irrigation in Pakistan. Improved management of downstream water resources requires studying and comparing spatiotemporal changes in the snow cover and hydrological behavior of the river basins located in the HKH region. This study explored in detail the recent changes that have occurred in the Gilgit River basin (12,656 km2; western sub-basin of UIB), which is characterized by a mean catchment elevation of 4250 m above sea level (m ASL). The basin’s snow cover was monitored through the snow products provided by the MODIS satellite sensor, while analysis of its hydrological regime was supported by hydrological and climatic data recorded at different altitudes. The Gilgit basin findings were compared to those previously obtained for the lower-altitude Astore basin (mean catchment elevation = 4100 m ASL) and the higher-altitude Hunza basin (mean catchment elevation = 4650 m ASL). These three catchments were selected because of their different glacier coverage, contrasting area distribution at high altitudes and significant impact on the Upper Indus River flow. Almost 7, 5 and 33 % of the area of the Gilgit, Astore and Hunza basins, respectively, are situated above 5000 m ASL, and approximately 8, 6 and 25 %, respectively, are covered by glaciers. The UIB region was found to follow a stable or slightly increasing trend in snow coverage and had a discharge dominated by snow and glacier melt in its western (Hindukush–Karakoram), southern (Western-Himalaya) and northern (Central-Karakoram) sub-basins.

ACS Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Jan Franklin Adamowski; Pierre Chevallier; Ayaz Ul Haq; Silvia Terzago. Comparative assessment of spatiotemporal snow cover changes and hydrological behavior of the Gilgit, Astore and Hunza River basins (Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya region, Pakistan). Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2016, 128, 793 -811.

AMA Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Jan Franklin Adamowski, Pierre Chevallier, Ayaz Ul Haq, Silvia Terzago. Comparative assessment of spatiotemporal snow cover changes and hydrological behavior of the Gilgit, Astore and Hunza River basins (Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya region, Pakistan). Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2016; 128 (6):793-811.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Jan Franklin Adamowski; Pierre Chevallier; Ayaz Ul Haq; Silvia Terzago. 2016. "Comparative assessment of spatiotemporal snow cover changes and hydrological behavior of the Gilgit, Astore and Hunza River basins (Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya region, Pakistan)." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 128, no. 6: 793-811.

Journal article
Published: 17 June 2015 in Environmental Earth Sciences
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AT Marala barrage, two canals, i.e. Marala Ravi Link Canal (MRLC) and Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) off-take from left side of the River Chenab. MRLC has a very old history of experiencing sedimentation issues. Several attempts have been made to counterfoil or minimize this problem in the recent past. Two remarkable measures are the remodeling of MRLC in 2000–2001 (intervention-1) and the shifting of the confluence point of a heavily sediment-laden upstream tributary of the Chenab River by construction of a spur dike in 2004 (intervention-2). This paper investigates the effectiveness of these structural interventions as sedimentation control measures. The baseline period is selected from 1997 to 2000 and the impact is analyzed for two post-intervention time steps, i.e. evaluation period-1 ranging from 2001 to 2004 and evaluation period-2 from 2005 to 2011. Results obtained from double mass analysis revealed that sediment load increased by 33 and 8 % due to intervention-1, while decreased by 12 and 22 % due to intervention-2 in MRLC and UCC, respectively. The results suggest that monsoon floods are mainly responsible for sediment loading in the canals (66 % for UCC and 73 % for MRLC), supported by the finding that effective discharge (1900 m3 s−1) is almost twice the mean annual river discharge. The discharge classes between 900 and 2900 m3 s−1 are mainly responsible for major proportion (89 % in MRLC and 86 % in UCC) of the total sediment load over the 15-year study period. The intervention-1 could not minimize the sediment entry into the canals; rather it aggravated the situation. The intervention-2, however, proved a useful structural measure in this regard.

ACS Style

Muhammad Ashraf; Muhammad Tousif Bhatti; Abdul Sattar Shakir; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Afzal Ahmad. Sediment control interventions and river flow dynamics: impact on sediment entry into the large canals. Environmental Earth Sciences 2015, 74, 5465 -5474.

AMA Style

Muhammad Ashraf, Muhammad Tousif Bhatti, Abdul Sattar Shakir, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Afzal Ahmad. Sediment control interventions and river flow dynamics: impact on sediment entry into the large canals. Environmental Earth Sciences. 2015; 74 (7):5465-5474.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Ashraf; Muhammad Tousif Bhatti; Abdul Sattar Shakir; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Afzal Ahmad. 2015. "Sediment control interventions and river flow dynamics: impact on sediment entry into the large canals." Environmental Earth Sciences 74, no. 7: 5465-5474.

Journal article
Published: 01 February 2015 in Science of The Total Environment
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A large proportion of Pakistan's irrigation water supply is taken from the Upper Indus River Basin (UIB) in the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush range. More than half of the annual flow in the UIB is contributed by five of its snow and glacier-fed sub-basins including the Astore (Western Himalaya - south latitude of the UIB) and Hunza (Central Karakoram - north latitude of the UIB) River basins. Studying the snow cover, its spatio-temporal change and the hydrological response of these sub-basins is important so as to better manage water resources. This paper compares new data from the Astore River basin (mean catchment elevation, 4100 m above sea level; m asl afterwards), obtained using MODIS satellite snow cover images, with data from a previously-studied high-altitude basin, the Hunza (mean catchment elevation, 4650 m asl). The hydrological regime of this sub-catchment was analyzed using the hydrological and climate data available at different altitudes from the basin area. The results suggest that the UIB is a region undergoing a stable or slightly increasing trend of snow cover in the southern (Western Himalayas) and northern (Central Karakoram) parts. Discharge from the UIB is a combination of snow and glacier melt with rainfall-runoff at southern part, but snow and glacier melt are dominant at the northern part of the catchment. Similar snow cover trends (stable or slightly increasing) but different river flow trends (increasing in Astore and decreasing in Hunza) suggest a sub-catchment level study of the UIB to understand thoroughly its hydrological behavior for better flood forecasting and water resources management.

ACS Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Pierre Chevallier; Yves Arnaud; Muhammad Ashraf; Muhammad Tousif Bhatti. Snow cover trend and hydrological characteristics of the Astore River basin (Western Himalayas) and its comparison to the Hunza basin (Karakoram region). Science of The Total Environment 2015, 505, 748 -761.

AMA Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Pierre Chevallier, Yves Arnaud, Muhammad Ashraf, Muhammad Tousif Bhatti. Snow cover trend and hydrological characteristics of the Astore River basin (Western Himalayas) and its comparison to the Hunza basin (Karakoram region). Science of The Total Environment. 2015; 505 ():748-761.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Adnan Ahmad Tahir; Pierre Chevallier; Yves Arnaud; Muhammad Ashraf; Muhammad Tousif Bhatti. 2015. "Snow cover trend and hydrological characteristics of the Astore River basin (Western Himalayas) and its comparison to the Hunza basin (Karakoram region)." Science of The Total Environment 505, no. : 748-761.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2014 in International Journal of Geosciences
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Snow- and glacier-nourished river basins located in the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) ranges supply a significant amount of discharge in River Indus upstream Tarbela Dam. It is, hence, important to comprehend the cryosphere variation and its relationship to the stream flow in these high-altitude river catchments. The MODIS remotely sensed database of snow products was chosen to examine the average annual snow and glacier cover (cryosphere) variations in the Shigar River basin (poorly gauged mountainous sub-catchment of the Indus River). Hydrological regime in the area was investigated through monthly database of observed stream fluxes and climate variables (precipitation and mean temperature) for the Shigar River catchment. Analysis indicated the usefulness of remote sensing techniques for estimation of the snow cover variation in the poorly or un-gauged high-elevation catchments of the HKH zone. Results also showed that Shigar River discharge was influenced mainly by the seasonal and annual snow cover area (SCA) variation and the temperature seasonality. Moreover, it is important to uncover such inter-relationship of stream flow, climate variables and snow cover in the poorly gauged high-altitude catchments of Karakoram region for better water resource management and accurate flood hazards predictions at Tarbela.

ACS Style

Samreen Abdul Samreen Abdul Hakeem$Department of Environmental Sciences; Muhammad Pakistan╃Muhammad Bilal$Department of Environmental Sciences; Arshid Pakistan╃Arshid Pervez$Department of Environmental Sciences; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; COMSATS Institute of Information Technology; Abbottabad; Pakistan. Remote Sensing Data Application to Monitor Snow Cover Variation and Hydrological Regime in a Poorly Gauged River Catchment—Northern Pakistan. International Journal of Geosciences 2014, 05, 27 -37.

AMA Style

Samreen Abdul Samreen Abdul Hakeem$Department of Environmental Sciences, Muhammad Pakistan╃Muhammad Bilal$Department of Environmental Sciences, Arshid Pakistan╃Arshid Pervez$Department of Environmental Sciences, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Abbottabad, Pakistan. Remote Sensing Data Application to Monitor Snow Cover Variation and Hydrological Regime in a Poorly Gauged River Catchment—Northern Pakistan. International Journal of Geosciences. 2014; 05 (01):27-37.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Samreen Abdul Samreen Abdul Hakeem$Department of Environmental Sciences; Muhammad Pakistan╃Muhammad Bilal$Department of Environmental Sciences; Arshid Pakistan╃Arshid Pervez$Department of Environmental Sciences; Adnan Ahmad Tahir; COMSATS Institute of Information Technology; Abbottabad; Pakistan. 2014. "Remote Sensing Data Application to Monitor Snow Cover Variation and Hydrological Regime in a Poorly Gauged River Catchment—Northern Pakistan." International Journal of Geosciences 05, no. 01: 27-37.