Archaeological predictive modeling has been used successfully for over 20 years as a decision-making tool in cultural resources management. Its appreciation in academic circles however has been mixed because of its perceived theoretical poverty. In this paper, we discuss the issue of integrating current archaeological theoretical approaches and predictive modeling. We suggest a methodology for doing so based on cognitive archaeology, middle range theory, and paleoeconomic modeling. We also discuss the problems associated with testing predictive models.

This chapter presents and discusses current approaches and trends in computer-based modelling of pathways and movement networks in archaeology. After an introduction to the theoretical concepts involved, we present a state of the art of methodologies applied for reconstructing pathways and movement in ancient landscapes and discuss the various difficulties in using these methods as well as the most important technical hurdles involved. The problems of integrating optimal pathfinding algorithms with ‘softer’ socio-cultural variables are highlighted, as well as the limitations of modelling connections between places using least-cost path techniques. Network analysis reconstruction and analysis approaches are then reviewed as tools to better understand the overall structure of movement and communication in ancient landscapes. It is concluded that, while the potential of current approaches for understanding ancient movement is considerable, improvement is still needed in three main areas: the integration of approaches, sensitivity analysis and validation, and the theoretical underpinning of models of ancient movement.

GIS has become an indispensable tool for archaeologists to organize, explore and analyse spatial data. In this introductory chapter, an historical overview of the development of GIS use in archaeology is given. It focuses on three major fields of application: site location analysis, modelling movement and transport and visibility analysis. This state of the art is illustrated by discussing three different case studies. Finally, some thoughts on the future of GIS in archaeology are presented.

In this paper, we present a method to deal with poorly dated site inventories for purposes of (supra-) regional settlement pattern analysis. We created a site database for the Roman period in the Dutch River Area on the basis of existing digital inventories, and analyzed the quality of dating information provided in those inventories in order to better understand the development of settlement patterns during the Roman period. We did this by applying principles of aoristic analysis, dividing the time spans assigned to each registered artefact over the archaeological periods considered, and then simulating the probability of finds belonging to a specific archaeological period. Using this method, it is possible to judge the quality of dating information per site, and to analyze patterns of settlement density and site location while taking into account the uncertainty of dating information. Our analyses broadly confirm earlier studies, but they also provide a more solid, quantitative basis to previous work. Furthermore, they highlight the limitations of using the currently available information for settlement pattern analysis