The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers.

Reservoir computing originates in the early 2000s, the core idea being to utilize dynamical systems as reservoirs (nonlinear generalizations of standard bases) to adaptively learn spatiotemporal features and hidden patterns in complex time series. Shown to have the potential of achieving higher-precision prediction in chaotic systems, those pioneering works led to a great amount of interest and follow-ups in the community of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems. To unlock the full capabilities of reservoir computing towards a fast, lightweight, and significantly more interpretable learning framework for temporal dynamical systems, substantially more research is needed. This Perspective intends to elucidate the parallel progress of mathematical theory, algorithm design and experimental realizations of reservoir computing, and identify emerging opportunities as well as existing challenges for large-scale industrial adoption of reservoir computing, together with a few ideas and viewpoints on how some of those challenges might be resolved with joint efforts by academic and industrial researchers across multiple disciplines.

We study optimal synchronization in networks of heterogeneous phase oscillators. Our main result is the derivation of a synchrony alignment function that encodes the interplay between network structure and oscillators’ frequencies and that can be readily optimized. We highlight its utility in two general problems: constrained frequency allocation and network design. In general, we find that synchronization is promoted by strong alignments between frequencies and the dominant Laplacian eigenvectors, as well as a matching between the heterogeneity of frequencies and network structure.

In this work, we developed a nonlinear System Identification (SID) method that we called Entropic Regression. Our method adopts an information-theoretic measure for the data-driven discovery of the underlying dynamics. Our method shows robustness toward noise and outliers, and it outperforms many of the current state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the method of Entropic Regression overcomes many of the major limitations of the current methods such as sloppy parameters, diverse scale, and SID in high-dimensional systems such as complex networks. The use of information-theoretic measures in entropic regression has unique advantages, due to the Asymptotic Equipartition Property of probability distributions, that outliers and other low-occurrence events are conveniently and intrinsically de-emphasized as not-typical, by definition. We provide a numerical comparison with the current state-of-the-art methods in sparse regression, and we apply the methods to different chaotic systems such as the Lorenz System, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equations, and the Double-Well Potential.

Inferring the coupling structure of complex systems from time series data in general by means of statistical and information-theoretic techniques is a challenging problem in applied science. The reliability of statistical inferences requires the construction of suitable information-theoretic measures that take into account both direct and indirect influences, manifest in the form of information flows, between the components within the system. In this work, we present an application of the optimal causation entropy (oCSE) principle to identify the coupling structure of a synthetic biological system, the repressilator. Specifically, when the system reaches an equilibrium state, we use a stochastic perturbation approach to extract time series data that approximate a linear stochastic process. Then, we present and jointly apply the aggregative discovery and progressive removal algorithms based on the oCSE principle to infer the coupling structure of the system from the measured data. Finally, we show that the success rate of our coupling inferences not only improves with the amount of available data, but it also increases with a higher frequency of sampling and is especially immune to false positives.

Simulating physical dynamics to solve hard combinatorial optimization has proven effective for medium- to large-scale problems. The dynamics of such systems is continuous, with no guarantee of finding optimal solutions of the original discrete problem. We investigate the open question of when simulated physical solvers solve discrete optimizations correctly, with a focus on coherent Ising machines (CIMs). Having established the existence of an exact mapping between CIM dynamics and discrete Ising optimization, we report two fundamentally distinct bifurcation behaviors of the Ising dynamics at the first bifurcation point: either all nodal states simultaneously deviate from zero (synchronized bifurcation) or undergo a cascade of such deviations (retarded bifurcation). For synchronized bifurcation, we prove that when the nodal states are uniformly bounded away from the origin, they contain sufficient information for exactly solving the Ising problem. When the exact mapping conditions are violated, subsequent bifurcations become necessary and often cause slow convergence. Inspired by those findings, we devise a trapping-and-correction (TAC) technique to accelerate dynamics-based Ising solvers, including CIMs and simulated bifurcation. TAC takes advantage of early bifurcated “trapped nodes” which maintain their sign throughout the Ising dynamics to reduce computation time effectively. Using problem instances from open benchmark and random Ising models, we validate the superior convergence and accuracy of TAC.