This paper proposes a new methodology for predicting aggregate flight departure delays in airports by exploring supervised learning methods. Individual flight data and meteorological information were processed to obtain four types of airport-related aggregate characteristics for prediction modeling. The expected departure delays in airports is selected as the prediction target while four popular supervised learning methods: multiple linear regression, a support vector machine, extremely randomized trees and LightGBM are investigated to improve the predictability and accuracy of the model. The proposed model is trained and validated using operational data from March 2017 to February 2018 for the Nanjing Lukou International Airport in China. The results show that for a 1-h forecast horizon, the LightGBM model provides the best result, giving a 0.8655 accuracy rate with a 6.65 min mean absolute error, which is 1.83 min less than results from previous research. The importance of aggregate characteristics and example validation are also studied.

For the current development of green civil aviation, this study aims to optimize the green four-dimensional (4D) trajectory of commercial flight by taking into account conventional cost and environmental cost. Some fundamental models, efficient processing methodologies, and conventional objectives are proposed to construct the framework of trajectory optimization. Based on the environmental cost including greenhouse gas cost and harmful gas cost, green objective functions are presented. The A* algorithm and the trapezoidal collocation method are employed to optimize the lateral path and vertical profile for 4D optimization trajectory generation. A case study for the A320 from Barcelona Airport to Frankfurt Airport yields the results that the optimal costs can be obtained under different objectives and the total cost can be more optimized by adjusting the weights of environmental cost and conventional cost. The study builds an aided tool for 4D trajectory optimization and demonstrates that environmental factors and conventional factors should be taken into comprehensive consideration when constructing the flight trajectory in the future, as well as it can underpin the green and sustainable development of the air transport industry.

Although the concept of sustainable development has made certain achievements in many fields, airport sustainability (AS) has not yet formed a unified and comprehensive theory and evaluation method. According to the connotation of sustainable development, this paper proposes the definition of airport sustainability by considering China’s national conditions and airport characteristics. Secondly, this paper identifies four AS dimensions of economy, environment, society, and operation and selects and screens evaluation indicators for each dimension. Thirdly, a synthetic evaluation index model of AS is constructed based on the benefit of the doubt (BoD) model, and the process of evaluation method is planned according to a synthetic evaluation method. Finally, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN) is selected as a case study to evaluate the AS from 2008 to 2017, and the influencing factors of AS are discussed to predict AS in 2018. The evaluation and prediction results are consistent with the actual operational characteristics of CAN.

Trajectory prediction serves as a prerequisite for future trajectory-based operation, significantly reducing the uncertainty of aircraft movement information within airspace by scientifically forecasting the three-dimensional positions of aircraft over a certain period. As convergence points in the aviation network, airport terminal airspace exhibits the most complex traffic conditions in the entire air route network. It has stronger mutual influences and interactions among aircraft compared to the en-route phase. Current research typically uses the trajectory time series information of a single aircraft as input for subsequent predictions. However, it often lacks consideration of the close-range spatial interactions between multiple aircraft in the terminal airspace. This results in a gap in the study of aircraft trajectory prediction that couples spatiotemporal features. This paper aims to predict the four-dimensional trajectories of aircraft in terminal airspace, constructing a Spatio-Temporal Transformer (ST-Transformer) prediction model based on temporal and spatial attention mechanisms. Using radar aircraft trajectory data from the Guangzhou Baiyun Airport terminal airspace, the results indicate that the proposed ST-Transformer model has a smaller prediction error compared to mainstream deep learning prediction models. This demonstrates that the model can better integrate the temporal sequence correlation of trajectory features and the potential spatial interaction information among trajectories for accurate prediction.

Predicting flight delays plays a critical role in reducing financial losses and increasing passenger satisfaction. Due to their ability to combine multiple algorithms, ensemble methods have demonstrated strong predictive performance in many research fields. In this paper, ensemble methods are adopted to predict flight delays. First, based on the current studies, two novel explanatory variables, named arrival/departure pressure and cruise pressure, are proposed as factors affecting flight delays. Second, we introduce the ensemble methods and select representative algorithms for the prediction problem. In addition to the ensemble methods, classical algorithms are also used to predict flight delays. Finally, the actual operational data of Beijing Capital International Airport were utilized to conduct a case study. The results show that the stacking method has better prediction performance than other baseline methods. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the stacking method was about 12.58 min on the test dataset. Furthermore, we tested the effect of the two explanatory variables proposed in this paper, and the results show that the MAE was reduced by about 20% by using the stacking method.