Significance: This work provides a robust estimate of water-level (WL) changes in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, driven by continental freshwater dynamics, vertical land motion, and sea-level rise. Through an unprecedented set of 101 gauges, we reconstruct WL variations since the 1970s and show that the WL across the delta increased slightly faster, ∼3 mm/y, than the global mean sea-level rise (∼2 mm/y). By combining satellite altimetry and WL reconstructions, we estimate that maximum expected rates of delta subsidence since the 1990s range from 1 to 7 mm/y. By 2100, even under a greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario (RCP4.5), the subsidence could double the projected sea-level rise, making it reach 85 to 140 cm across the delta.

In the companion paper to this one (Part I), the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere–Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-TRIP) continental hydrological system of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques is evaluated by using river discharge measurements and terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations derived from three independent datasets of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). One of the conclusions is that the river reservoir simulated by TRIP at the global scale seems to be one of the main sources of TWS and/or discharge errors. Here, the authors study these uncertainties in river routing processes, such as flow velocity and groundwater storage. For this purpose, a simple groundwater reservoir depending on a time delay factor and a variable streamflow velocity calculated via Manning’s formula are added to TRIP following the approach of Arora and Boer. The previous and the new TRIP are then compared, and two studies of the sensitivity to the groundwater time delay factor and to the flow velocity are performed. Using the same experiment design as in Part I, the authors show that the effect of this flow velocity and of the groundwater time delay factor on the ISBA-TRIP simulation is potentially significant. Nevertheless, over tropical and temperate basins, a competition between the two processes implies a slight difference between the previous and the new TRIP compared to both the GRACE and the discharge signals. The global results underline that simulating a realistic streamflow velocity is a key process for global-scale application.

We have jointly analysed space gravimetry data from the GRACE space mission, satellite altimetry data and precipitation over the East African Great Lakes region, in order to study the spatiotemporal variability of hydrological parameters (total water storage, lake water volume and rainfall). We find that terrestrial water storage (TWS) from GRACE and precipitation display a common mode of variability at interannual time scale, with a minimum in late 2005, followed by a rise in 2006–2007. We argue that this event is due to forcing by the strong 2006 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on East African rainfall. We also show that GRACE TWS is linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. Combination of the altimetry-based lake water volume with TWS from GRACE over the lakes drainage basins allows estimating soil moisture and groundwater volume variations. Comparison with the WGHM hydrological model outputs is performed and discussed.

In earth system models, the partitioning of precipitation among the variations of continental water storage, evapotranspiration, and freshwater runoff to the ocean has a major influence on the terrestrial water and energy budgets and thereby on simulated climate on a wide range of scales. The evaluation of continental hydrology is therefore a crucial task that requires offline simulations driven by realistic atmospheric forcing to avoid the systematic biases commonly found in global atmospheric models. Generally, this evaluation is done mainly by comparison with in situ river discharge data, which does not guarantee that the spatiotemporal distribution of water storage and evapotranspiration is correctly simulated. In this context, the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere–Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-TRIP) continental hydrological system of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques is evaluated by using the additional constraint of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations derived from three independent gravity field retrievals (datasets) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). On the one hand, the results show that, in general, ISBA-TRIP captures the seasonal and the interannual variability in both TWS and discharges. GRACE provides an additional constraint on the simulated hydrology and consolidates the former evaluation only based on river discharge observations. On the other hand, results indicate that river storage variations represent a significant contribution to GRACE measurements. While this remark highlights the need to improve the TRIP river routing model for a more useful comparison with GRACE [Decharme et al. (Part II of the present study)], it also suggests that low-resolution gravimetry products do not necessarily represent a strong additional constraint for model evaluation, especially in downstream areas of large river basins where long-term discharge data are available.