Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures. PC2FM is a physically-based and scale-independent model that predicts mean fire return intervals from both fire reactant and reaction variables, which are largely dependent on a locale's climate. Our results overwhelmingly depict increasing potential fire probabilities across the conterminous US for both climate scenarios. The primary mechanism for the projected increases is rising temperatures, reflecting changes in the chemical reaction environment commensurate with enhanced photosynthetic rates and available thermal molecular energy. Existing high risk areas, such as the Cascade Range and the Coastal California Mountains, are projected to experience greater annual fire occurrence probabilities, with relative increases of 122% and 67%, respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to increases of 63% and 38% under RCP 4.5. Regions not currently associated with frequently occurring wildfires, such as New England and the Great Lakes, are projected to experience a doubling of occurrence probabilities by 2100 under RCP 8.5. This high resolution, continental-scale modeling study of climate change impacts on potential fire probability accounts for shifting background environmental conditions across regions that will interact with topographic drivers to significantly alter future fire probabilities. The ensemble modeling approach presents a useful planning tool for mitigation and adaptation strategies in regions of increasing wildfire risk.

Geospatial data conflation is aimed at matching counterpart features from two or more data sources in order to combine and better utilize information in the data. Due to the importance of conflation in spatial analysis, different approaches to the conflation problem have been proposed ranging from simple buffer-based methods to probability and optimization based models. In this paper, I propose a formal framework for conflation that integrates two powerful tools of geospatial computation: optimization and relational databases. I discuss the connection between the relational database theory and conflation, and demonstrate how the conflation process can be formulated and carried out in standard relational databases. I also propose a set of new optimization models that can be used inside relational databases to solve the conflation problem. The optimization models are based on the minimum cost circulation problem in operations research (also known as the network flow problem), which generalizes existing optimal conflation models that are primarily based on the assignment problem. Using comparable datasets, computational experiments show that the proposed conflation method is effective and outperforms existing optimal conflation models by a large margin. Given its generality, the new method may be applicable to other data types and conflation problems.

Spatial data conflation is aimed at matching and merging objects in two datasets into a more comprehensive one. Starting from the “map assignment problem” in the 1980s, optimized conflation models treat feature matching as a natural optimization problem of minimizing certain metrics, such as the total discrepancy. One complication in optimized conflation is that heterogeneous datasets can represent geographic features differently. Features can correspond to target features in the other dataset either on a one-to-one basis (forming full matches) or on a many-to-one basis (forming partial matches). Traditional models consider either full matching or partial matches exclusively. This dichotomy has several issues. Firstly, full matching models are limited and cannot capture any partial match. Secondly, partial matching models treat full matches just as partial matches, and they are more prone to admit false matches. Thirdly, existing conflation models may introduce conflicting directional matches. This paper presents a new model that captures both full and partial matches simultaneously. This allows us to impose structural constraints differently on full/partial matches and enforce the consistency between directional matches. Experimental results show that the new model outperforms conventional optimized conflation models in terms of precision (89.2%), while achieving a similar recall (93.2%).