Farmers in China’s tea-growing regions report that monsoon dynamics and other weather factors are changing and that this is affecting tea harvest decisions. To assess the effect of climate change on tea production in China, this study uses historical weather and production data from 1980 to 2011 to construct a yield response model that estimates the partial effect of weather factors on tea yields in China, with a specific focus on East Asian Monsoon dynamics. Tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kunze) has not been studied using these methods even though it is an important crop for human nutrition and the economic well-being of rural communities in many countries. Previous studies have approximated the monsoon period using historical average onset and retreat dates, which we believe limits our understanding of how changing monsoon patterns affect crop productivity. In our analysis, we instead estimate the monsoon season across China’s tea growing regions empirically by identifying the unknown breakpoints in the year-by-province cumulative precipitation. We find that a 1% increase in the monsoon retreat date is associated with 0.481%–0.535% reduction in tea yield. In the previous year, we also find that a 1% increase in the date of the monsoon retreat is associated with a 0.604% decrease in tea yields. For precipitation, we find that a 1% increase in average daily precipitation occurring during the monsoon period is associated with a 0.184%–0.262% reduction in tea yields. In addition, our models show that 1% increase in the average daily monsoon precipitation from the previous growing season is associated with 0.258%–0.327% decline in yields. We also find that a 1% decrease in solar radiation in the previous growing season is associated with 0.554%-0.864% decrease in tea yields. These findings suggest the need for adaptive management and harvesting strategies given climate change projections and the known negative association between excess rainfall and delayed monsoon retreat on tea quality and yield.

Climatic conditions affect the chemical composition of edible crops, which can impact flavor, nutrition and overall consumer preferences. To understand these effects, we sampled tea (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze) grown in different environmental conditions. Using a target/nontarget data analysis approach, we detected 564 metabolites from tea grown at two elevations in spring and summer over 3 years in two major tea-producing areas of China. Principal component analysis and partial least squares-discriminant analysis show seasonal, elevational, and yearly differences in tea from Yunnan and Fujian provinces. Independent of location, higher concentrations of compounds with aromas characteristic of farmers’ perceptions of high-quality tea were found in spring and high elevation teas. Yunnan teas were distinct from Fujian teas, but the effects of elevation and season were different for the two locations. Elevation was the largest source of metabolite variation in Yunnan yet had no effect in Fujian. In contrast seasonal differences were strong in both locations. Importantly, the year-to-year variation in chemistry at both locations emphasizes the importance of doing multi-year studies, and further highlights the challenge farmers face when trying to produce teas with specific flavor/health (metabolite) profiles.