Drought has severe impacts on human society and ecosystems. In this study, we used data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensors to examine the drought effects on vegetation in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2018. The MODIS data included the 16-day 250-m composites of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) with Land Surface Temperature (LST) images with 1 km resolution. The TRMM data were monthly rainfalls with 0.1-degree resolution. The relationship between drought and index-defined vegetation variation was examined by using time series, regression analysis, and anomaly calculation. The results showed that the vegetation coverage for the whole country, reaching the lowest levels of 6.2% and 5.5% were observed in drought years 2001 and 2008, respectively. However, there is a huge inter-regional variation in vegetation coverage in the study period with a significant rising trend in Helmand Watershed with R = 0.66 (p value = 0.05). Based on VCI for the same two years (2001 and 2008), 84% and 72% of the country were subject to drought conditions, respectively. Coherently, TRMM data confirm that 2001 and 2008 were the least rainfall years of 108 and 251 mm, respectively. On the other hand, years 2009 and 2010 were registered with the largest vegetation coverage of 16.3% mainly due to lower annual LST than average LST of 14 degrees and partially due to their slightly higher annual rainfalls of 378 and 425 mm, respectively, than the historical average of 327 mm. Based on the derived VCI, 28% and 21% of the study area experienced drought conditions in 2009 and 2010, respectively. It is also found that correlations are relatively high between NDVI and VCI (r = 0.77, p = 0.0002), but slightly lower between NDVI and precipitation (r = 0.51, p = 0.03). In addition, LST played a key role in influencing the value of NDVI. However, both LST and precipitation must be considered together in order to properly capture the correlation between drought and NDVI.

The role of meteorological droughts and initial conditions (land and atmosphere) in soil moisture drought (SMD) propagation are not yet fully understood. This work uses a drought event‐based causal framework to investigate the relative importance of meteorological drought (MD) duration and intensity and initial conditions that result in surface and rootzone SMD, considering their event‐level propagation time (PT) over South Asia. Initially, spatial variability of drought propagation is assessed by the Propagation Ratio (PR) computed based on MD counts that trigger SMD at various lags. PR depicts 2–3 months slower rootzone propagation than at surface. The gradual decrease in PR with increasing regional aridity indicates faster propagation over humid regions. The causal impact of initial conditions and MD parameters on propagating SMD are evaluated using normalized mutual information and a newly proposed normalized conditional mutual information. We found greater importance of triggering MD parameters followed by initial soil moisture condition on propagating SMD. This behavior is more evident for the surface layer propagation at shorter PT. There is a confounding effect of initial atmospheric conditions on drought propagation through initial soil moisture, depicting the significance of land‐atmosphere interactions prior to propagation. In the rootzone propagation, initial soil moisture has a greater influence on propagation, especially at longer PT, indicating the significance of soil moisture persistence. Stronger causal links obtained through the joint influence of MD parameters on SMD suggest the importance of accounting for MD duration and intensity simultaneously, which are not considered in drought index‐based propagation studies.