Drylands today are facing a landscape-scale water storage problem. Throughout the increasingly arid Southwest of the United States, vegetation loss in upland watersheds is leading to floods that scour soils and transport sediment that clogs downstream riparian areas and agricultural infrastructure. The resulting higher flow energies and diminished capacity to infiltrate flood flows are depleting soil water storage across the landscape, negatively impacting agriculture and ecosystems. Land and water managers face challenges to reverse the trends due to the complex interacting social and biogeophysical root causes. Presented here is an integrative system dynamics model that simulates innovative and transformative management scenarios. These scenarios include the natural and hydro-social processes and feedback dynamics critical for achieving long-term mitigation of droughts, flooding, and sediment transport. This model is a component of the Flood Flow Connectivity to the Landscape framework, which integrates spatial and hydrologic process models. Scenarios of support and collaboration for land management innovations are simulated to connect flood flow to the floodplains throughout the watershed to replenish soil storage and shallow groundwater aquifers across regional scales. The results reveal the management policy levers and trade-off balances critical for restoring management and water storage capacity to the system for long-term resilience.

Climate change presents serious threats to the sustainability of coupled Water–Agriculture–Community Systems (WACSs) in New Mexico’s Lower Rio Grande (LRG) region. Enhancing the resilience of WACSs is essential for ensuring the system’s long-term adaptability and sustainability. Although the importance of system feedback and dynamic behavior is increasingly acknowledged in resilience studies, many existing assessments fail to account for the complex interconnections and self-organizing nature of these systems. This study utilizes a System Dynamics (SD) simulation modeling and a function-based resilience framework to assess WACSs’ responses to climate change, specifically investigating whether improvements in Water Conveyance Efficiency (WCE) can enhance system resilience in the LRG. The analysis centers on the interaction of socioeconomic and hydrological dynamics, incorporating future climate projections derived from three models: UKMO, GFDL, and NCAR. Findings reveal that under the UKMO scenario, enhanced WCE leads to improved resilience in the groundwater system; however, agricultural-community resilience declines under both the UKMO and GFDL scenarios. While hydrological resilience shows improvement—particularly with increased WCE—the agriculture–community system consistently exhibits limited capacity to adapt or reorganize. The differing outcomes across climate models underscore the sensitivity of WACS resilience to varying climatic conditions.

The conventional approach of policy interventions in water management that focus on the portions of the system that directly relate to water often lead to unintended consequences that potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues and present challenges to the future viability of many rural agricultural communities. This paper deploys a system dynamics model to illustrate how expanding the policy space of hydrology models to include socioeconomic feedbacks could address these challenges. In this regard, policies that can potentially mitigate general water scarcity in a region of the American Southwest in southern New Mexico are examined. We selected and tested policies with the potential to diminish water scarcity without compromising the system’s economic performance. These policies included supporting choices that reduce or limit the expansion of water-intensive crops, promoting workforce participation, encouraging investment in capital, and regulating land use change processes. The simulation results, after the proposed boundary expansion, unveiled intervention options not commonly exercised by water decision-makers, bolstering the argument that integrated approaches to water research that include socioeconomic feedbacks are crucial for the study of agricultural community resilience.

Dryland watersheds are governed by tightly coupled source–sink dynamics, in which expanding bare soil and declining vegetated patches amplify runoff, sediment transport, and land degradation. Identifying suitable locations for water harvesting structures remains challenging due to the limited scalability of field assessments and the inability of coarse DEM-based GIS methods to capture critical microtopographic features. This study evaluates whether high-resolution (0.44 m) topographic data, integrated with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), can identify suitable locations for water harvesting structures in dryland watersheds and compares the model discrimination of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy AHP (FAHP). Eight geomorphic and ecological indicators were evaluated and validated using 565 practitioner-identified restoration practice locations across two watersheds in southern New Mexico. The results show that 78% (East Control) and 94% (West Restoration) of validation sites occur within the top two predicted suitability classes, with moderate to good model discrimination (AUC: 0.671–0.723) and strong ranking performance (Boyce Index: 0.945–0.983). AHP and FAHP produced nearly identical outputs (ΔAUC < 1%; ΔBoyce ≤ 0.005). These findings demonstrate that high-resolution topography, coupled with MCDA, provides a robust and transferable framework for the landscape-scale prioritization of nature-based water harvesting structures to support ecohydrological restoration in dryland watersheds.