Examining a range of policy areas in which the European Union (EU) acts externally – notably trade, development, climate change and foreign and security policy – this article considers the notion that the years since the mid-2000s have witnessed a decline in EU actorness/effectiveness. In evaluating EU performance, the article employs the interrelated concepts of presence, denoting EU status and influence; opportunity, denoting the external context of EU action; and capability, referring to EU policy processes and instruments, with particular reference to the impact of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty. It is contended that achievement of the increased capability envisaged by the Lisbon Treaty, together with resolution of the Eurozone crisis, with its deleterious effect upon the Union’s presence, would not fully compensate for the loss of opportunity provided by the changing international structure.

Promotion of sustainable development and poverty eradication in the world's poorest countries are interlinked and frequently reiterated commitments of the European Union. While their achievement depends upon successful implementation of the Union's policy coherence for development (PCD) strategy, they also epitomize the challenges facing that strategy. This article examines EU actorness in relation to sustainable development, using the external dimensions of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), with particular reference to fisheries agreements with West Africa, as an illustrative case. Given the many sources of incoherence identified in relation to the CFP, it is concluded that, while the Union is undoubtedly a global actor, implementation of the PCD strategy is insufficient to enable it to function effectively as a sustainable development actor.

Accelerations in population growth and urban expansion are transforming landscapes worldwide and represent a major sustainability challenge. In the United States, land conversion to impervious surfaces has outpaced population increases, yet there are few spatial metrics of urbanization and per capita land change available nationwide for assessing local to regional trends in human footprint. We quantified changes (2000–2010) in housing density, imperviousness, per capita land consumption, and land-use efficiency for block groups of the contiguous U.S. and examined national patterns and variation in these metrics along the urban–rural gradient and by megaregion. Growth in housing (+13.6%) and impervious development (+10.7%) resulted in losses of rural lands, primarily due to exurbanization and suburbanization. Mean per capita consumption increased in all density classes but was over 8.5 times greater in rural lands than in exurban, suburban, and urban areas. Urban and suburban areas had significantly lower mean consumption, yet change was unsustainable in 60% of these areas. Megaregions across the sprawling Sun Belt, spanning from Arizona to North Carolina, grew most unsustainably, especially compared to regions in the Pacific Northwest and Front Range. This work establishes 21st-century benchmarks that decision-makers can use to track local and regional per capita land change and sustainable growth in the U.S.; however, these metrics of the form, extent, rate, and efficiency of urbanization can be applied anywhere concurrent built-up area and population data are available over time. Our web mapping application allows anyone to explore spatial and temporal trends in human footprint and download metrics, and it is designed to be easily updatable with future releases of validated developed land cover, protected areas, and decennial Census data.

Increasing population and rural to urban migration are accelerating urbanization globally, permanently transforming natural systems over large extents. Modelling landscape change over large regions, however, presents particular challenges due to local-scale variations in social and environmental factors that drive land change. We simulated urban development across the South Atlantic States (SAS), a region experiencing rapid population growth and urbanization, using FUTURES—an open source land change model that uses demand for development, local development suitability factors, and a stochastic patch growing algorithm for projecting alternative futures of urban form and landscape change. New advances to the FUTURES modelling framework allow for high resolution projections over large spatial extents by leveraging parallel computing. We simulated the adoption of different urban growth strategies that encourage settlement densification in the SAS as alternatives to the region’s increasing sprawl. Evaluation of projected patterns indicate a 15% increase in urban lands by 2050 given a status quo development scenario compared to a 14.8% increase for the Infill strategy. Status quo development resulted in a 3.72% loss of total forests, 2.97% loss of highly suitable agricultural land, and 3.69% loss of ecologically significant lands. An alternative Infill scenario resulted in similar losses of total forest (3.62%) and ecologically significant lands (3.63%) yet consumed less agricultural lands (1.23% loss). Moreover, infill development patterns differed qualitatively from the status quo and resulted in less fragmentation of the landscape.

In the United States, requirements for flood insurance, development restrictions, and federal buyout program eligibility rely on regulatory designation of hazardous zones, i.e., inside or outside the 100-year floodplain. Extensive research has investigated floodplain development patterns across different geographies, times, and scales, yet the impacts, and potential unintended consequences, of floodplain policies beyond their boundaries have not been empirically examined. We posit that the regulatory 100-year floodplain presents a “safe development paradox”, whereby attempts to reduce flood risk paradoxically intensifies it by promoting development in and near flood-prone areas. We conducted the first comprehensive national assessment of historical and future development patterns related to the regulatory 100-year floodplain, examining the spatial distribution of developed land within increasingly distant 250-m zones from floodplain boundaries. We found a disproportionate concentration of developed land (24% or 89,080 km² of developed land by 2019) in zones immediately adjacent to the floodplain, a trend observed at the national, state, and county levels. Nationwide projections suggest that approximately 22% of all anticipated growth from 2020 to 2060 is likely to occur within 250 m from the 100-year floodplain, equivalent to 6,900 km² of new development (SD = 2,842 km²). Understanding and anticipating the influence of flood management policies on current and future land use decisions is crucial for effective planning and mitigation strategies.