The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wildfires that ignited and spread in early August. Common to these wildfires was the occurrence of violent pyroconvection. This work presents a meteorological analysis of this outbreak of extreme pyroconvective wildfires. Our analysis shows that dry and warm antecedent weather preconditioned fuels in the fire-affected areas, creating a fire environment that alone could effectively support intense wildfire activity. Analysis of surface conditions revealed that the ignition and the most active spread of all wildfires coincided with the most adverse fire weather since the beginning of the fire season. Further, the atmospheric environment was conducive to violent pyroconvection, as atmospheric instability gradually increased amid the breakdown of an upper-air ridge ahead of an approaching long-wave trough. In summary, we highlight that the severity and extent of the 2021 Greek wildfires were not surprising considering the fire weather potential for the period when they ignited. Continuous monitoring of the large- and local-scale conditions that promote extreme fire behavior is imperative for improving Greece’s capacity for managing extreme wildfires.

The ever increasing need for accurate burned area mapping has led to a number of studies that focus on improving the mapping accuracy and effectiveness. In this work, we investigate the influence of derivative spectral and spatial features on accurately mapping recently burned areas using VHR IKONOS imagery. Our analysis considers both pixel and object-based approaches, using two advanced image analysis techniques: (a) an efficient feature selection method based on the Fuzzy Complementary Criterion (FuzCoC) and (b) the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. In both cases (pixel and object-based), a number of higher-order spectral and spatial features were produced from the original image. The proposed methodology was tested in areas of Greece recently affected by severe forest fires, namely, Parnitha and Rhodes. The extensive comparative analysis indicates that the SVM object-based scheme exhibits higher classification accuracy than the respective pixel-based one. Additionally, the accuracy increased with the addition of derivative features and subsequent implementation of the FuzCoC feature selection (FS) method. Apart from the positive effect in the classification accuracy, the application of the FuzCoC FS method significantly reduces the computational requirements and facilitates the manipulation of the large data volume. In both cases (pixel and objet) the results confirmed that the use of an efficient feature selection method is a prerequisite step when extra information through higher-order features is added to the classification process of VHR imagery for burned area mapping.

This study investigates the effectiveness of combining multispectral very high resolution (VHR) and hyperspectral satellite imagery through a decision fusion approach, for accurate forest species mapping. Initially, two fuzzy classifications are conducted, one for each satellite image, using a fuzzy output support vector machine (SVM). The classification result from the hyperspectral image is then resampled to the multispectral’s spatial resolution and the two sources are combined using a simple yet efficient fusion operator. Thus, the complementary information provided from the two sources is effectively exploited, without having to resort to computationally demanding and time-consuming typical data fusion or vector stacking approaches. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is validated in a complex Mediterranean forest landscape, comprising spectrally similar and spatially intermingled species. The decision fusion scheme resulted in an accuracy increase of 8% compared to the classification using only the multispectral imagery, whereas the increase was even higher compared to the classification using only the hyperspectral satellite image. Perhaps most importantly, its accuracy was significantly higher than alternative multisource fusion approaches, although the latter are characterized by much higher computation, storage, and time requirements.

Monitoring post-fire vegetation response using remotely-sensed images is a top priority for post-fire management. This study investigated the potential of very-high-resolution (VHR) GeoEye images on detecting the field-measured burn severity of a forest fire that occurred in Evros (Greece) during summer 2011. To do so, we analysed the role of topographic conditions and burn severity, as measured in the field immediately after the fire (2011) and one year after (2012) using the Composite Burn Index (CBI) for explaining the post-fire vegetation response, which is measured using VHR satellite imagery. To determine this relationship, we applied redundancy analysis (RDA), which allowed us to identify which satellite variables among VHR spectral bands and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can better express the post-fire vegetation response. Results demonstrated that in the first year after the fire event, variations in the post-fire vegetation dynamics can be properly detected using the GeoEye VHR data. Furthermore, results showed that remotely-sensed NDVI-based variables are able to encapsulate burn severity variability over time. Our analysis showed that, in this specific case, burn severity variations are mildly affected by the topography, while the NDVI index, as inferred from VHR data, can be successfully used to monitor the short-term post-fire dynamics of the vegetation recovery.

The frequent occurrence of large and high-intensity wildfires in the Mediterranean region poses a major threat to people and the environment. In this context, the estimation of dead fine fuel moisture content (DFMC) has become an integrated part of wildfire management since it provides valuable information for the flammability status of the vegetation. This study investigates the effectiveness of a physically based fuel moisture model in estimating DFMC during severe fire events in Greece. Our analysis considers two approaches, the satellite-based (MODIS DFMC model) and the weather station-based (AWSs DFMC model) approach, using a fuel moisture model which is based on the relationship between the fuel moisture of the fine fuels and the water vapor pressure deficit (D). During the analysis we used weather station data and MODIS satellite data from fourteen wildfires in Greece. Due to the lack of field measurements, the models’ performance was assessed only in the case of the satellite data by using weather observations obtained from the network of automated weather stations operated by the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). Results show that, in general, the satellite-based model achieved satisfactory accuracy in estimating the spatial distribution of the DFMC during the examined fire events. More specifically, the validation of the satellite-derived DFMC against the weather-station based DFMC indicated that, in all cases examined, the MODIS DFMC model tended to underestimate DFMC, with MBE ranging from −0.3% to −7.3%. Moreover, in all of the cases examined, apart from one (Sartis’ fire case, MAE: 8.2%), the MAE of the MODIS DFMC model was less than 2.2%. The remaining numerical results align with the existing literature, except for the MAE case of 8.2%. The good performance of the satellite based DFMC model indicates that the estimation of DFMC is feasible at various spatial scales in Greece. Presently, the main drawback of this approach is the occurrence of data gaps in the MODIS satellite imagery. The examination and comparison of the two approaches, regarding their operational use, indicates that the weather station-based approach meets the requirements for operational DFMC mapping to a higher degree compared to the satellite-based approach.

Over the past years, the Mediterranean areas have been experiencing more frequent and more severe wildfires. In this context, the estimation of dead fine fuel moisture content (DFMC) has become an integral part of wildfire management since it provides valuable information for the flammability status of the vegetation. The aim of this study is to evaluate effectiveness of Nolan et al.’s (2016) recently developed DFMC model in the light of operational use, for a Euro Mediterranean region (Greece). To do so, we tested and compared two existing approaches for estimating daily DFMC. In the first approach (MODIS DFMC model), we calculated daily DFMC from MODIS remote sensing data, using the DFMC calibrated model of Nolan et.al (2016) at regional and national level. In the second approach (AWSs DFMC model), we produced daily DFMC maps at country level from meteorological data using Nolan’s model as well. Then, we validated the satellite-based DFMC thematic maps (MODIS DFMC maps) that were produced at sub-regional level using meteorological data obtained from the dense network of ΝΟΑΝΝ surface weather stations operated by the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). Due to a lack of DFMC field measurements, the validation of the weather-station based DFMC maps was not feasible (AWSs DFMC maps). Finally, we compared the two approaches in order to identify which is the most appropriate for operational fire management in Greece.Results show that, in general, the satellite-based model achieved satisfactory accuracy in estimating the spatial distribution of the DFMC during the examined fire events. More specifically, the validation of the satellite-derived DFMC against the weather-station based DFMC indicated that, in all cases examined, the MODIS DFMC model tended to underestimate DFMC, with MBE ranging from -0.3% to -7.3%. Moreover, in almost all the cases examined, the MAE of the MODIS DFMC model was less than 2.2%. The good performance of the satellite based DFMC model indicates that the estimation of DFMC is feasible at various spatial scales in Greece. A closer examination of the analysis results revealed poor estimation of the satellite-derived vapor pressure deficit (D), and subsequently of DFMC, in arid and semi-arid regions. D’s poor estimation can be explained by the fact that the LST, retrieved by MODIS data, depends on the accuracy of the surface emissivity.Examination and visual interpretation of the derived maps from both approaches suggest that the AWSs DFMC maps show higher spatial continuity in comparison to that derived from the MODIS-based approach. This is attributed to the gap problem in the satellite images.Finally, the examination and comparison of the two approaches regarding their use on operational basis shows that the two models present some implementation challenges. Nevertheless, the AWSs DFMC model meets the requirements for operational DFMC mapping to a higher degree compared to the MODIS DFMC model, in Greece. This work was conducted in the frame of CLIMPACT – National Νetwork on Climate Change and its Impacts, a flagship initiative on climate change to coordinate a Pan-Hellenic network of institutions.