This page has only limited features, please log in for full access.
The use of renewable fuels has emerged as an important method for reducing fossil-fuel consumption. Different pathway technologies can lead to different fuel products. The feasibility of many such pathways has been analyzed with mixed results but new technologies are being developed continuously. This study uses stochastic analysis to determine the feasibility of producing biofuels from carinata oil using catalytic hydrothermolysis (CH) technology. We perform the analysis with and without government incentive programs. We also address uncertainties in input costs and government incentives. The study analyzes a pioneer greenfield plant. The results show that the mean net present value (NPV) without government incentives is −$924.4 million. Ninety percent of the simulated NPV is between −$1040 million and −$810 million, which indicates a 100% probability of loss. The mean breakeven price of jet fuel is $4.72 gal–1. With government incentives including Renewable Identification Number (RIN) and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), the mean NPV is $62.3, and the probability of loss is reduced to 21%, which makes the process much more financially feasible. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Nhu Nguyen; Wallace E Tyner. Assessment of the feasibility of the production of alternative jet fuel and diesel using catalytic hydrothermolysis technology: a stochastic techno‐economic analysis. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleNhu Nguyen, Wallace E Tyner. Assessment of the feasibility of the production of alternative jet fuel and diesel using catalytic hydrothermolysis technology: a stochastic techno‐economic analysis. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNhu Nguyen; Wallace E Tyner. 2021. "Assessment of the feasibility of the production of alternative jet fuel and diesel using catalytic hydrothermolysis technology: a stochastic techno‐economic analysis." Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining , no. : 1.
Nitrogen is the most limiting plant nutrient. Inexpensive natural gas has substantially reduced costs of ammonia fertilizer for intensive agriculture in the developed world, but its excessive use negatively impacts downstream ecosystems. By contrast, the availability of ammonia fertilizer is a major economic bottleneck for agriculture in developing countries. A dedicated lignocellulosic biomass crop could supply sufficient substrate to generate optimal nitrogen fertilizer on less than 5% of a grower's food crop acreage. Reimagining ammonia generation using biomass could significantly enhance sustainable agricultural productivity in developing countries when combined with emerging catalytic technologies. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Emre Gençer; Gary R. Burniske; Otto C. Doering; Wallace E. Tyner; Rakesh Agrawal; W. Nicholas Delgass; Gebisa Ejeta; Maureen C. McCann; Nicholas C. Carpita. Sustainable production of ammonia fertilizers from biomass. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 2020, 14, 725 -733.
AMA StyleEmre Gençer, Gary R. Burniske, Otto C. Doering, Wallace E. Tyner, Rakesh Agrawal, W. Nicholas Delgass, Gebisa Ejeta, Maureen C. McCann, Nicholas C. Carpita. Sustainable production of ammonia fertilizers from biomass. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining. 2020; 14 (4):725-733.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEmre Gençer; Gary R. Burniske; Otto C. Doering; Wallace E. Tyner; Rakesh Agrawal; W. Nicholas Delgass; Gebisa Ejeta; Maureen C. McCann; Nicholas C. Carpita. 2020. "Sustainable production of ammonia fertilizers from biomass." Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 14, no. 4: 725-733.
Background It has been argued that the US biofuel policy is responsible for the land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I). In this paper, following a short literature review that highlights the relevant topics and issues, we develop analytical and numerical analyses to evaluate the extent to which production of biofuels in the US alters land use in M&I. The analytical analyses make it clear that market-mediated responses may generate some land use change in M&I due to biofuel production in the US. These analyses highlight the role of substitution among vegetable oils in linking these economies in markets for vegetable oils. To numerically quantify these effects, we modified and used a well-known Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), GTAP-BIO. We conducted some sensitivity tests as well. Results According to the simulation results obtained from two base case scenarios for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel, we find that producing 15 BGs of corn ethanol and 2 BGs gallons of soy biodiesel together could potentially increase area of cropland in M&I by 59.6 thousand hectares. That is less than 0.5% of the cropland expansion in M&I for the time period of 2000–2016, when biofuel production increased in the US. The original GTAP-BIO model parameters including the regional substitution rates among vegetable oils were used for the base case scenarios. The estimated induced land use change (ILUC) emissions values for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel are about 12.3 g CO2e MJ−1, 17.5 g CO2e MJ−1 for the base case scenarios. The share of M&I in the estimated ILUC emissions value for corn ethanol is 10.9%. The corresponding figure for soy biodiesel is much higher, 78%. The estimated ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel is sensitive with respect to the changes in the regional rates of substitution elasticity among vegetable oils. That is not the case for corn ethanol. When we replaced the original substitution elasticities of the base case, which are very large (i.e., 5 or 10) for many regions, with a small and uniform rate of substitution (i.e., 0.5) across the world, the ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel drops from 17.5 g CO2e MJ−1 to 10.16 g CO2e MJ−1. When we applied larger substitution elasticities among vegetable oils, the estimated ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel converged towards the base case results. This suggests that, other factors being equal, the base case substitution elasticities provide the largest possible ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel. Finally, our analyses clearly indicate that those analyses that limit their modeling framework to only palm and soy oil and ignore other types of vegetable oils and fats provide misleading information and exaggerate about the land use implications of the US biofuels for M&I. Conclusion (1) Production of biofuels in the US generates some land use effects in M&I due to market-mediated responses, in particular through the links between markets for vegetable oils. These effects are minor compared to the magnitude of land use change in M&I. However, because of the high carbon intensity of the peatland the emissions fraction of M&I is larger, in particular for soy biodiesel. (2) The GTAP-BIO model implemented a set of regional substitution elasticities among vegetable oils that, other factors being equal, provides the largest possible ILUC emissions value for soy biodiesel. (3) With a larger substitution elasticity among all types of vegetable oils and animal fats in the US, less land use changes occur in M&I. That is due to the fact that a larger substitution elasticity among vegetable oils in the US, diverts a larger portion of the additional demand for soy oil to non-palm vegetable oils and animal fats that are produced either in the US or regions other than M&I. (4) Those analyses that limit their modeling framework to only palm and soy oils and ignore other types of vegetable oils and fats provide misleading information and exaggerate about the land use implications of the US biofuels for M&I.
Farzad Taheripour; Wallace E. Tyner. US biofuel production and policy: implications for land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia. Biotechnology for Biofuels 2020, 13, 1 -17.
AMA StyleFarzad Taheripour, Wallace E. Tyner. US biofuel production and policy: implications for land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia. Biotechnology for Biofuels. 2020; 13 (1):1-17.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarzad Taheripour; Wallace E. Tyner. 2020. "US biofuel production and policy: implications for land use changes in Malaysia and Indonesia." Biotechnology for Biofuels 13, no. 1: 1-17.
In a recent article, Santeramo and Searle (2019: Henceforth San-Sea) argued that the linkages between the soy oil and palm oil markets and their land use consequences could negatively affect the climate performance of the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and California's Low Fuel Standard. To support their arguments, San-Sea estimated the own and cross-price elasticities for supplies of soy and palm oils in the US. These authors refer to a valid point that induced land use changes may negatively impact emissions savings due to biofuels. However, their estimated elasticities provide no new insight on this issue. In addition, their approach, findings, analysis, and conclusion are subject to several deficiencies and limitations. These authors provide no new evidence for the link between biofuel production and land use change due to substitution among vegetable oils. In what follows, we reflect on some important facts and concerns.
Farzad Taheripour; Michael S. Delgado; Wallace E. Tyner. Response to Santeramo and Searle (2019). Energy Policy 2019, 137, 111159 .
AMA StyleFarzad Taheripour, Michael S. Delgado, Wallace E. Tyner. Response to Santeramo and Searle (2019). Energy Policy. 2019; 137 ():111159.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarzad Taheripour; Michael S. Delgado; Wallace E. Tyner. 2019. "Response to Santeramo and Searle (2019)." Energy Policy 137, no. : 111159.
This study evaluates the economic and global-warming potential for a 100% biomass direct-fire biopower plant in Indiana using short-rotation coppice poplar (Populus spp.) as a feedstock. The poplar yield and moisture content data were collected from an actual field trial conducted in southern Indiana beginning in 2013. Monte-Carlo simulation was applied to account for uncertainty in three parameters (poplar yield, moisture content, and planting costs). We found that the biopower plant is economically infeasible in Indiana, as the estimated system break-even price (21.5 cents/kWh) is six times higher than the current wholesale electricity price in Indiana. Based on the LCA analysis, we found that this pathway has negative net emissions (−1.14 kg CO2 eq/kWh), due to carbon sequestration. As a coal-intensive power-generating state, Indiana would require a carbon tax above $93.5/ton CO2-equivalent to make the biopower plant competitive with other types of power plants (coal and natural gas). This analysis was based on average-quality land. We then conducted a sensitivity analysis using poor- and high-quality land. There are small, statistically significant differences between land types, but likely they are not economically significant because the data we have for the three land rents are subject to high uncertainty, which could not be quantified.
Dawoon Jeong; Wallace E. Tyner; Richard Meilan; Tristan R. Brown; Otto C. Doering. Stochastic techno-economic analysis of electricity produced from poplar plantations in Indiana. Renewable Energy 2019, 149, 189 -197.
AMA StyleDawoon Jeong, Wallace E. Tyner, Richard Meilan, Tristan R. Brown, Otto C. Doering. Stochastic techno-economic analysis of electricity produced from poplar plantations in Indiana. Renewable Energy. 2019; 149 ():189-197.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDawoon Jeong; Wallace E. Tyner; Richard Meilan; Tristan R. Brown; Otto C. Doering. 2019. "Stochastic techno-economic analysis of electricity produced from poplar plantations in Indiana." Renewable Energy 149, no. : 189-197.
Sound economic modelling of land use in global economic models is critical for evaluating agricultural, biofuel, and climate policies. Current approaches do not preserve physical land area, do not account for the fact that land is of different qualities, or do not explicitly include the cost of converting land from one use to another. This study proposes a land use modelling framework building on the additive form of the constant elasticity of transformation (ACET) approach. We demonstrated that the framework could (1) directly provide traceable physical land use results, (2) flexibly handle land productivity differences based on biophysical information, (3) explicitly introduce land conversion cost, and (4) provide welfare decomposition in light of land heterogeneity and conversion cost. An experiment of mandating a 10 percent increase in grain consumption in the US food sector showed that ignoring land heterogeneity and conversion cost would underestimate the welfare loss by 28 percent.
Xin Zhao; Dominique Y. van der Mensbrugghe; Roman M. Keeney; Wallace E. Tyner. Improving the way land use change is handled in economic models. Economic Modelling 2019, 84, 13 -26.
AMA StyleXin Zhao, Dominique Y. van der Mensbrugghe, Roman M. Keeney, Wallace E. Tyner. Improving the way land use change is handled in economic models. Economic Modelling. 2019; 84 ():13-26.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXin Zhao; Dominique Y. van der Mensbrugghe; Roman M. Keeney; Wallace E. Tyner. 2019. "Improving the way land use change is handled in economic models." Economic Modelling 84, no. : 13-26.
(2018). Reply to Oladosu and Kline (2018). Biofuels. Ahead of Print.
Farzad Taheripour; Wallace E. Tyner. Reply to Oladosu and Kline (2018). Biofuels 2018, 12, 359 -361.
AMA StyleFarzad Taheripour, Wallace E. Tyner. Reply to Oladosu and Kline (2018). Biofuels. 2018; 12 (3):359-361.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarzad Taheripour; Wallace E. Tyner. 2018. "Reply to Oladosu and Kline (2018)." Biofuels 12, no. 3: 359-361.
This study analyzed the financial feasibility of catalytic hydrothermolysis (CH) aviation biofuel technology. Three feedstocks were assessed: brown grease (rendered from grease trap waste), yellow grease (rendered from used cooking oil), and carinata oil. Since the technology carries risk, a stochastic analysis was conducted, which resulted in a distribution of net present values (NPVs) and breakeven prices. The breakeven price was the price of jet fuel per gallon that made the NPV equal to zero. A scenario where fuel price grew over time and a scenario where fuel price did not grow were both analyzed. Four plant scenarios were analyzed: 1. pioneer brownfield, 2. Nth brownfield, 3. pioneer greenfield, 4. Nth greenfield. Brown grease was the most promising feedstock scenario, in terms of financial feasibility. Breakeven prices in each feedstock scenario were lowest in the brownfield nth plant scenario, and highest in the greenfield pioneer plant scenario. Across the four plant scenarios and two fuel price growth scenarios, mean breakeven prices ranged from $2.02 to $2.83/gal in the brown grease scenario, $2.82 to $3.81/gal in the yellow grease scenario, and $3.90 to $5.66/gal in the carinata oil scenario. With the addition of RINs and LCFS credits, the probability of loss was as low as 0.0%, 18.9%, and 74.6% in the brown grease, yellow grease, and carinata oil scenarios, respectively. However, without RIN or LCFS credits, the process was not found to be financially viable. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Elspeth McGarvey; Wallace E. Tyner. A stochastic techno-economic analysis of the catalytic hydrothermolysis aviation biofuel technology. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 2018, 12, 474 -484.
AMA StyleElspeth McGarvey, Wallace E. Tyner. A stochastic techno-economic analysis of the catalytic hydrothermolysis aviation biofuel technology. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining. 2018; 12 (3):474-484.
Chicago/Turabian StyleElspeth McGarvey; Wallace E. Tyner. 2018. "A stochastic techno-economic analysis of the catalytic hydrothermolysis aviation biofuel technology." Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 12, no. 3: 474-484.
David F. Perkis; Wallace E. Tyner. Developing a cellulosic aviation biofuel industry in Indiana: A market and logistics analysis. Energy 2018, 142, 793 -802.
AMA StyleDavid F. Perkis, Wallace E. Tyner. Developing a cellulosic aviation biofuel industry in Indiana: A market and logistics analysis. Energy. 2018; 142 ():793-802.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDavid F. Perkis; Wallace E. Tyner. 2018. "Developing a cellulosic aviation biofuel industry in Indiana: A market and logistics analysis." Energy 142, no. : 793-802.
Precision agriculture technologies allow producers to identify areas of fields that are underperforming and unprofitable. If these less productive parts of the field could be converted to a bioenergy crop through subfield management strategies (landscape design), there may be potential gains to farmer revenue, biomass availability, and reduced adverse environmental impacts. Switchgrass is considered as a potential energy crop due its ability to thrive in marginal conditions. Previous studies have examined switchgrass production and breakeven costs, but have not looked at how production costs may change when produced in a landscape design situation. Adapting costs to the partial field situation, this paper determines the switchgrass breakeven prices ($ ton−1) which equate producers’ net revenues in a base case (all corn) and landscape design case. That breakeven price is the price at which the farmer would be indifferent between the base and landscape design cases. We examine the case of a general, 100-acre field in Iowa, with 15 acres converted to switchgrass production, as well as 11 actual fields in Central Iowa where unprofitable subfields are assumed to be converted to switchgrass production, and the remaining portion of the field remains in corn. We find an average switchgrass breakeven price of $173 ton−1 when land costs are included, and an average of $114 ton−1 when no land costs are considered. A stochastic analysis to obtain a distribution of switchgrass breakeven prices under uncertainty is performed, producing distributions of switchgrass breakeven prices of $65–$266 ton−1 and $108– $432 ton−1 with and without land costs, respectively.
Sabrinna Soldavini; Wallace E. Tyner. Determining Switchgrass Breakeven Prices in a Landscape Design System. BioEnergy Research 2017, 11, 191 -208.
AMA StyleSabrinna Soldavini, Wallace E. Tyner. Determining Switchgrass Breakeven Prices in a Landscape Design System. BioEnergy Research. 2017; 11 (1):191-208.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSabrinna Soldavini; Wallace E. Tyner. 2017. "Determining Switchgrass Breakeven Prices in a Landscape Design System." BioEnergy Research 11, no. 1: 191-208.
In recent years many studies used economic partial and general equilibrium models to estimate induced land use change (ILUC) emissions due to biofuel production and/or policy. Previous research assumed that all additional harvested crop area came from cultivation of land converted from pasture or forest. However, recent FAO data suggest that there has also been significant addition to harvested area through double cropping and/or returning unused cropland to crop production. This chapter examines the extent to which land intensification can alter the existing estimates for biofuels ILUC emissions. To accomplish this task we (i) reviewed the associated literature; (ii) collected data at the global scale to examine recent trends in land intensification in crop production across the world; (iii) modified a well‐known computable general equilibrium model (GTAP‐BIO), which has been frequently used in this area to take into account land intensification due to multiple cropping and/or conversion of unused cropland to crop production; (iv) calibrated the model to real world observations, and (v) finally calculated ILUC emissions for several biofuel pathways with and without land intensification. Our results confirm the model with land intensification projects lower ILUC emissions for the examined biofuel pathways. The size of reduction depends on the implemented benchmark database, varies across biofuel pathways, and changes by biofuel production location.
Farzad Taheripour; Hao Cui; Wallace E. Tyner. An Exploration of Agricultural Land Use Change at Intensive and Extensive Margins. Large Igneous Provinces 2017, 19 -37.
AMA StyleFarzad Taheripour, Hao Cui, Wallace E. Tyner. An Exploration of Agricultural Land Use Change at Intensive and Extensive Margins. Large Igneous Provinces. 2017; ():19-37.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarzad Taheripour; Hao Cui; Wallace E. Tyner. 2017. "An Exploration of Agricultural Land Use Change at Intensive and Extensive Margins." Large Igneous Provinces , no. : 19-37.
The GTAP model has been used to estimate biofuel policy induced land use changes and consequent GHG emissions for more than a decade. This paper reviews the history of the model and database modifications and improvements that have occurred over that period. In particular, the paper covers in greater detail the move from the 2004 to the 2011 database, and the inclusion of cropland intensification in the modeling structure. The results show that all the changes in the global economy and agricultural sectors cause biofuels induced land use changes and associated emissions can be quite different using the 2011 database versus 2004. The results also demonstrate the importance of including land intensification in the analysis. The previous versions of GTAP and other similar models assumed that changes in harvested area equal changes in cropland area. However, FAO data demonstrate that it is not correct for several important world regions. The model now includes land intensification, and the resulting land use changes and emission values are lower as would be expected. Dedicated energy crops are not similar to the first generation feedstocks in the sense that they do not generate the level of market-mediated responses which we have seen in the first-generation feedstocks. The major market-mediated responses are reduced consumption, crop switching, changes in trade, changes in intensification, and forest or pasture conversion. These largely do not apply to dedicated energy corps. The land use emissions for cellulosic feedstocks depend on what we assume in the emissions factor model regarding soil carbon gained or lost in converting land to these feedstocks. We examined this important point for producing bio-gasoline from miscanthus. Much of the literature suggests miscanthus actually sequesters carbon, if grown on the existing active cropland or degraded land. We provide some illustrative estimates for possible assumptions. Finally, it is important to note the importance of the new results for the regulatory process. The current California Air Resources Board carbon scores for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel are 19.8 and 29.1, respectively (done with a model version that includes irrigation). The new model and database carbon scores are 12 and 18, respectively, for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel. Thus, the current estimates values are substantially less than the values currently being used for regulatory purposes.
Farzad Taheripour; Xin Zhao; Wallace E. Tyner. The impact of considering land intensification and updated data on biofuels land use change and emissions estimates. Biotechnology for Biofuels 2017, 10, 1 -16.
AMA StyleFarzad Taheripour, Xin Zhao, Wallace E. Tyner. The impact of considering land intensification and updated data on biofuels land use change and emissions estimates. Biotechnology for Biofuels. 2017; 10 (1):1-16.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarzad Taheripour; Xin Zhao; Wallace E. Tyner. 2017. "The impact of considering land intensification and updated data on biofuels land use change and emissions estimates." Biotechnology for Biofuels 10, no. 1: 1-16.
Farzad Taheripour; Wallace E. Tyner. What Would Happen If We Don’t Have GMO Traits? Frontiers of Economics and Globalization 2017, 17, 53 -67.
AMA StyleFarzad Taheripour, Wallace E. Tyner. What Would Happen If We Don’t Have GMO Traits? Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. 2017; 17 ():53-67.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarzad Taheripour; Wallace E. Tyner. 2017. "What Would Happen If We Don’t Have GMO Traits?" Frontiers of Economics and Globalization 17, no. : 53-67.
Tourists consider many factors, including health, when choosing travel destinations. The potential for exposure to novel or foreign diseases alone can deter travelers from selecting high-risk locations for disease transmission. The 2015–2016 Zika Virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Americas and Caribbean prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. This study investigated factors that may contribute to travel avoidance to areas experiencing ZIKV transmission while also considering different levels of health concern and awareness among groups with varying demographics. An online survey was administered February 10–12, 2016 to a sample of U.S. residents (n = 964). Demographics, information about travel behaviors, and levels of health concern were collected. Ordered logit models were employed to assess the impacts of the ZIKV outbreak on travel planning. Respondents giving higher levels of attention to general health were more likely to avoid travel to areas experiencing ZIKV transmission. It is anticipated that the findings of this study may be of interest to public health officials, healthcare providers, and government officials attempting to mitigate impacts of ZIKV. Disease outbreaks in regions of the world typically frequented by vacation or leisure travelers are particularly problematic due to the increased amount of exposure to disease in an immunologically naïve population that may then contribute to the outbreak through their travel plans. Avoiding travel to destinations experiencing outbreaks of disease due to health concerns may be interpreted positively by the public health community but can have negative economic consequences.
Nicole J. Olynk Widmar; S.R. Dominick; Audrey Ruple; Wallace E. Tyner. The influence of health concern on travel plans with focus on the Zika virus in 2016. Preventive Medicine Reports 2017, 6, 162 -170.
AMA StyleNicole J. Olynk Widmar, S.R. Dominick, Audrey Ruple, Wallace E. Tyner. The influence of health concern on travel plans with focus on the Zika virus in 2016. Preventive Medicine Reports. 2017; 6 ():162-170.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNicole J. Olynk Widmar; S.R. Dominick; Audrey Ruple; Wallace E. Tyner. 2017. "The influence of health concern on travel plans with focus on the Zika virus in 2016." Preventive Medicine Reports 6, no. : 162-170.
Corn stover treated with a lime slurry has the potential to reduce feed costs for finishing feedlot cattle. Feed rations including lime-treated corn stover were profitable compared with the control rations for all scenarios investigated. The average annual increase in returns per feedlot space on a beef cattle feedlot operation when lime-treated corn stover was included in the rations of finishing cattle was $40.82 per feedlot space, with a range of increased returns of $7 to $90 per feedlot space depending on feed price assumptions. The range of corn prices tested was $118.10 to $196.84/Mg, and the range of corn stover prices tested was $38.58 to $60.63/dry Mg. Environmental impacts studied were soil erosion, changes in soil organic carbon, and nitrate leaching. Data from the Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework were used to quantify the environmental impacts resulting from the ration substitutions. Incorporation of environmental values with the economic results affects social values and can lead to negative social outcomes in some cases. Detrimental environmental impacts increase as the level of corn stover harvest increases, and the incorporation of environmental values to the on-farm economic values of the feed substitutions can affect the social outcome of the feed substitution.
Jeffrey J. Opgrand; Nicole J. Widmar; Wallace E. Tyner. Economic viability of lime-treated corn stover in finishing beef cattle diets. The Professional Animal Scientist 2017, 33, 73 -84.
AMA StyleJeffrey J. Opgrand, Nicole J. Widmar, Wallace E. Tyner. Economic viability of lime-treated corn stover in finishing beef cattle diets. The Professional Animal Scientist. 2017; 33 (1):73-84.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJeffrey J. Opgrand; Nicole J. Widmar; Wallace E. Tyner. 2017. "Economic viability of lime-treated corn stover in finishing beef cattle diets." The Professional Animal Scientist 33, no. 1: 73-84.
Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm. The stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions. Technical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven prices, potential investors can apply whatever risk preferences they like to determine an appropriate bid or breakeven price that matches their risk profile.
Guolin Yao; Mark D. Staples; Robert Malina; Wallace E. Tyner. Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production. Biotechnology for Biofuels 2017, 10, 1 -13.
AMA StyleGuolin Yao, Mark D. Staples, Robert Malina, Wallace E. Tyner. Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production. Biotechnology for Biofuels. 2017; 10 (1):1-13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGuolin Yao; Mark D. Staples; Robert Malina; Wallace E. Tyner. 2017. "Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production." Biotechnology for Biofuels 10, no. 1: 1-13.
Xin Zhao; Guolin Yao; Wallace E. Tyner. Quantifying breakeven price distributions in stochastic techno-economic analysis. Applied Energy 2016, 183, 318 -326.
AMA StyleXin Zhao, Guolin Yao, Wallace E. Tyner. Quantifying breakeven price distributions in stochastic techno-economic analysis. Applied Energy. 2016; 183 ():318-326.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXin Zhao; Guolin Yao; Wallace E. Tyner. 2016. "Quantifying breakeven price distributions in stochastic techno-economic analysis." Applied Energy 183, no. : 318-326.
With the recent shale gas boom, the U.S. is expected to have very large natural gas resources. In this respect, the key question is would it be better to rely completely on free market resource allocations which would lead to large exports of natural gas or to limit natural gas exports so that more could be used in the U.S.. After accounting for the cost of liquefying the natural gas and shipping it to foreign markets, the current price difference leaves room for considerable profit to producers from exports. In addition, there is a large domestic demand for natural gas from various sectors such as electricity generation, industrial applications, and the transportation sector etc. A hybrid modeling approach has been carried out using our version of the well-known MARket ALlocation (MARKAL)-Macro model to keep bottom-up model richness with macro effects to incorporate price and gross domestic product (GDP) feedbacks. One of the conclusion of this study is that permitting higher natural gas export levels leads to a small reduction in GDP (0.04%–0.17%). Higher exports also increases U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and electricity prices (1.1%–7.2%). We also evaluate the impacts of natural gas exports in the presence of a Clean Energy Standard (CES) for electricity. In this case, the GDP impacts are similar, but the electricity and transport sector impacts are different.
Kemal Sarıca; Wallace E. Tyner. Economic Impacts of Increased U.S. Exports of Natural Gas: An Energy System Perspective. Energies 2016, 9, 401 .
AMA StyleKemal Sarıca, Wallace E. Tyner. Economic Impacts of Increased U.S. Exports of Natural Gas: An Energy System Perspective. Energies. 2016; 9 (6):401.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKemal Sarıca; Wallace E. Tyner. 2016. "Economic Impacts of Increased U.S. Exports of Natural Gas: An Energy System Perspective." Energies 9, no. 6: 401.
This study evaluates the economic feasibility and stochastic dominance rank of eight cellulosic biofuel production pathways (including gasification, pyrolysis, liquefaction, and fermentation) under technological and economic uncertainty. A techno-economic assessment based financial analysis is employed to derive net present values and breakeven prices for each pathway. Uncertainty is investigated and incorporated into fuel prices and techno-economic variables: capital cost, conversion technology yield, hydrogen cost, natural gas price and feedstock cost using @Risk, a Palisade Corporation software. The results indicate that none of the eight pathways would be profitable at expected values under projected energy prices. Fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (FPH) has the lowest breakeven fuel price at 3.11 $/gallon of gasoline equivalent (0.82 $/liter of gasoline equivalent). With the projected energy prices, FPH investors could expect a 59% probability of loss. Stochastic dominance is done based on return on investment. Most risk-averse decision makers would prefer FPH to other pathways.
Xin Zhao; Tristan R. Brown; Wallace E. Tyner. Stochastic techno-economic evaluation of cellulosic biofuel pathways. Bioresource Technology 2015, 198, 755 -763.
AMA StyleXin Zhao, Tristan R. Brown, Wallace E. Tyner. Stochastic techno-economic evaluation of cellulosic biofuel pathways. Bioresource Technology. 2015; 198 ():755-763.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXin Zhao; Tristan R. Brown; Wallace E. Tyner. 2015. "Stochastic techno-economic evaluation of cellulosic biofuel pathways." Bioresource Technology 198, no. : 755-763.
What would be the impacts of a viable market for corn stover? A partial equilibrium model and a linear programing model were used to determine to what extent the existence of a viable market for corn stover would affect the traditional corn-soybean crop rotation in the US. We find that with government support production of biofuel from corn stover could significantly increase. That boosts profitability of farming corn in combination with harvesting corn stover versus soybeans. We show that if corn stover is demanded for biofuel, then a major shift will be observed in crop rotations in the US.
Farzad Taheripour; Julie Fiegel; Wallace E. Tyner. Development of Corn Stover Biofuel: Impacts on Corn and Soybean Markets and Crop Rotation. Sustainable Agriculture Research 2015, 5, 1 .
AMA StyleFarzad Taheripour, Julie Fiegel, Wallace E. Tyner. Development of Corn Stover Biofuel: Impacts on Corn and Soybean Markets and Crop Rotation. Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2015; 5 (1):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFarzad Taheripour; Julie Fiegel; Wallace E. Tyner. 2015. "Development of Corn Stover Biofuel: Impacts on Corn and Soybean Markets and Crop Rotation." Sustainable Agriculture Research 5, no. 1: 1.