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Dr. Michael Hagenlocher
United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), 53113 Bonn, Germany

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0 Climate Change Adaptation
0 Disaster Risk Reduction
0 floods
0 droughts
0 Vulnerability and risk assessment

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Vulnerability and risk assessment
floods
Climate Change Adaptation
Disaster Risk Reduction

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Analysis
Published: 28 June 2021 in Nature Sustainability
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Ecosystems play a potentially important role in sustainably reducing the risk of disaster events worldwide. Yet, to date, there are few comprehensive studies that summarize the state of knowledge of ecosystem services and functions for disaster risk reduction. This paper builds scientific evidence through a review of 529 English-language articles published between 2000 and 2019. It catalogues the extent of knowledge on, and confidence in, ecosystems in reducing disaster risk. The data demonstrate robust links and cost-effectiveness between certain ecosystems in reducing specific hazards, something that was revealed to be particularly true for the role of vegetation in the stabilization of steep slopes. However, the published research was limited in geographic distribution and scope, with a concentration on urban areas of the Global North, with insufficient relevant research on coastal, dryland and watershed areas, especially in the Global South. Many types of ecosystem can provide sustainable and multifunctional approaches to disaster risk reduction. Yet, if they are to play a greater role, more attention is needed to fill research gaps and develop performance standards. Disaster risks are a critical area for research, but while the focus has been on man-made adaptation, this analysis of 529 studies compiles evidence for how ecosystems can mitigate hazard vulnerabilities.

ACS Style

K. Sudmeier-Rieux; T. Arce-Mojica; H. J. Boehmer; N. Doswald; L. Emerton; D. A. Friess; S. Galvin; M. Hagenlocher; H. James; P. Laban; C. Lacambra; W. Lange; B. G. McAdoo; C. Moos; J. Mysiak; L. Narvaez; U. Nehren; P. Peduzzi; F. G. Renaud; S. Sandholz; L. Schreyers; Z. Sebesvari; T. Tom; A. Triyanti; P. van Eijk; M. van Staveren; M. Vicarelli; Y. Walz. Scientific evidence for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction. Nature Sustainability 2021, 1 -8.

AMA Style

K. Sudmeier-Rieux, T. Arce-Mojica, H. J. Boehmer, N. Doswald, L. Emerton, D. A. Friess, S. Galvin, M. Hagenlocher, H. James, P. Laban, C. Lacambra, W. Lange, B. G. McAdoo, C. Moos, J. Mysiak, L. Narvaez, U. Nehren, P. Peduzzi, F. G. Renaud, S. Sandholz, L. Schreyers, Z. Sebesvari, T. Tom, A. Triyanti, P. van Eijk, M. van Staveren, M. Vicarelli, Y. Walz. Scientific evidence for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction. Nature Sustainability. 2021; ():1-8.

Chicago/Turabian Style

K. Sudmeier-Rieux; T. Arce-Mojica; H. J. Boehmer; N. Doswald; L. Emerton; D. A. Friess; S. Galvin; M. Hagenlocher; H. James; P. Laban; C. Lacambra; W. Lange; B. G. McAdoo; C. Moos; J. Mysiak; L. Narvaez; U. Nehren; P. Peduzzi; F. G. Renaud; S. Sandholz; L. Schreyers; Z. Sebesvari; T. Tom; A. Triyanti; P. van Eijk; M. van Staveren; M. Vicarelli; Y. Walz. 2021. "Scientific evidence for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction." Nature Sustainability , no. : 1-8.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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As drought risk is projected to increase in many countries around the world, global drought risk assessments incorporating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are deemed to be useful to inform decisions on which countries should be targeted for the implementation of risk reduction, risk transfer, risk financing and adaptation strategies. This holds particularly true for existing climate change related financing mechanisms, such as the Adaptation Fund (AF), the Green Climate Fund (GCF) or the InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF), which have the mandate to concentrate on the “most vulnerable” or “most at-risk”, and therefore need comparative risk information. However, by virtue of the scale of assessment some countries and regions that experience the negative impacts of drought might not appear in the highest risk categories in global comparisons. This limits, and potentially biases, the ability of decision-makers, regional organisations or funding mechanisms to recognise which countries under their remit should be targeted for assistance.

This research aims to explore and overcome this issue by conducting an indicator-based drought risk assessment for agriculture at the global scale, compare these results to risk assessments for different clusters of countries of particular relevance for international climate and disaster risk policy, and discuss implications for decision making. Clusters of countries considered here include different World Bank income groups, UNFCCC Annex I and Non-Annex I countries, least developed countries (LDCs), the Vulnerable 20 (V20), as well as geographic regions. Additional clusters were created from countries that either rely on the agriculture sector in terms of their GDP, labor force, or are considered breadbaskets. 

Our analysis revealed that when assessed on a global scale, the higher risk is concentrated in Africa, countries with a reliance on agriculture in employment, and low middle income countries. High income countries and Annex I countries display lower risk on average. However, when assessed by cluster, risk patterns change compared to the global assessment. The most change occurs in the High Income, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Breadbasket clusters of countries. The least amount of change is seen in the Non-Annex I and LDC countries. On an individual country level, some countries moved from a lower quintile of risk in the global assessment to the highest quintile in the cluster assessment. For example Romania and Serbia, not classified as high-risk in the global assessment, emerged in the highest quintile in the Europe cluster. 

Findings of this study can be used directly by decision makers targeting regions or specific groups of countries for drought DRR planning or funding. More broadly, this analysis shows the importance of analysing risk at multiple scales, as different patterns emerge that could influence financial flows, decision making, and ultimately disaster risk outcomes.

ACS Style

Alexandra L. Dudley; Isabel Meza; Gustavo Naumann; Michael Hagenlocher. Leaving no country behind? How scale influences outcomes of drought risk assessments. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Alexandra L. Dudley, Isabel Meza, Gustavo Naumann, Michael Hagenlocher. Leaving no country behind? How scale influences outcomes of drought risk assessments. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Alexandra L. Dudley; Isabel Meza; Gustavo Naumann; Michael Hagenlocher. 2021. "Leaving no country behind? How scale influences outcomes of drought risk assessments." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Methodologies to assess risk from multiple hazards are increasingly being developed, and a growing body of literature reports implementations of multi-hazard risk assessments. However, fewer studies so far have attempted to complement a multiple hazard perspective with an equally sophisticated approach to assess the other subcomponents of risk, notably multi-vulnerability, in order to represent not just multi-hazard but rather multi-risk dynamics.

Using the impact chains approach, we have developed a participatory multi-risk assessment of the Marrakech-Safi region (Morocco). Floods and droughts, two of the most relevant hazards affecting the region, were considered for the study, with the aim of capturing their effects on diverse elements at risk, such as human security and rural livelihoods.

First, in order to identify the drivers of the most relevant impact-related risks associated with floods and droughts in the region, a set of four impact chains were co-developed with local experts and regional stakeholders during a dedicated workshop. Thereby, each type of risk was narrowly defined (i.e. “ risk of physical harm for the population due to floods”, “risk from loss of infrastructures and properties due to floods”, “risk of economic losses for rainfed agricultural systems due to drought”, “risk of economic losses for irrigated agricultural systems due to drought”), and the principal cause-effect connections between drivers were identified.

As a second step, each impact chain informed the spatial analysis of both single and multi-risk based on secondary data at the municipal level (n = 255 municipalities). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to characterize drought hazard for rainfed (SPI3) and irrigated (SPI12) farmlands, whereas a hydrological model was developed to simulate a 100-year return period flood. Exposure of people to floods was assessed using the WorldPop population distribution dataset, while a regional land use-land cover model was developed to assess exposure of irrigated and rainfed farmlands to drought. For each type of risk, weighted vulnerability indices were computed based on a set of social and environmental indicators, and combined to the hazard exposure assessments via a matrix approach to obtain single-risk classes. Ultimately, the four single-risk exposure and vulnerability scores were combined into a multi-exposure and multi-vulnerability score respectively, which were then used to obtain the final multi-risk classes.

Results show that the vast majority of municipalities in the region are affected by two risks or more, and that multi-vulnerability classes influenced importantly the final multi-risk assessment. The methodology allowed a complex representation of single- and multi-risk, integrating qualitative and quantitative outputs: impact chains proved to be useful at representing the inherent complexities of risk, while the spatial analysis helped to understand regional differences in multi-risk in all components of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The results of the assessments are expected to support multi-sectoral planning at the regional level. However, further research is needed to understand how to manage the increase in complexity should more hazard and/or more risk typologies be considered, and how to best model the complex interactions emerging from the impact chains in a more dynamic way.

ACS Style

Davide Cotti; Mostapha Harb; Abdessamad Hadri; Eva Trasforini; Andrea Libertino; Khalid Rkha Chaham; Felicitas Bellert; Michael Hagenlocher. Assessing multi-risk through impact chains and spatial analysis: experience from the Marrakech-Safi region (Morocco). 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Davide Cotti, Mostapha Harb, Abdessamad Hadri, Eva Trasforini, Andrea Libertino, Khalid Rkha Chaham, Felicitas Bellert, Michael Hagenlocher. Assessing multi-risk through impact chains and spatial analysis: experience from the Marrakech-Safi region (Morocco). . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Davide Cotti; Mostapha Harb; Abdessamad Hadri; Eva Trasforini; Andrea Libertino; Khalid Rkha Chaham; Felicitas Bellert; Michael Hagenlocher. 2021. "Assessing multi-risk through impact chains and spatial analysis: experience from the Marrakech-Safi region (Morocco)." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 23 February 2021 in Water
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The tight coupling of the social-ecological system (SES) of the Mississippi Delta calls for balanced natural hazard vulnerability and risk assessments. Most existing assessments have approached these components in isolation. To address this, we apply the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) in the Mississippi Delta at high-resolution census tract level. We assess SES spatial patterns of drought, hurricane-force wind, and coastal flood vulnerability and integrate hazard and exposure data for the assessment of coastal flood risk. Moreover, we compare current coastal flood risk to future risk in 2025 based on the modelled effects of flood depth, exposure, and changes in ecosystem area in the context of ongoing efforts under the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan. Results show that the Master Plan will lead to decreases in risk scores by 2025, but the tracts that are currently the most vulnerable benefit less from risk reduction efforts. Along with our index output, we discuss the need for further advancements in SES methodology and the potential for catastrophic hazard events beyond the model parameters, such as extreme rainfall events and very strong hurricanes. Assessing SES risk components can lead to more targeted policy recommendations, demonstrated by the need for Master Plan projects to consider their unequal spatial effects on vulnerability and risk reduction.

ACS Style

Carl Anderson; Fabrice Renaud; Michael Hagenlocher; John Day. Assessing Multi-Hazard Vulnerability and Dynamic Coastal Flood Risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a Social-Ecological Systems Approach. Water 2021, 13, 577 .

AMA Style

Carl Anderson, Fabrice Renaud, Michael Hagenlocher, John Day. Assessing Multi-Hazard Vulnerability and Dynamic Coastal Flood Risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a Social-Ecological Systems Approach. Water. 2021; 13 (4):577.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carl Anderson; Fabrice Renaud; Michael Hagenlocher; John Day. 2021. "Assessing Multi-Hazard Vulnerability and Dynamic Coastal Flood Risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a Social-Ecological Systems Approach." Water 13, no. 4: 577.

Original article
Published: 23 January 2021 in Journal of Flood Risk Management
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Vietnam is exposed to different types of floods that cause severe economic losses, damage to infrastructure, and loss of life. Reliable information on the drivers, patterns and dynamics of flood risk is crucial for the identification, prioritization and planning of risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we present a systematic review of existing flood risk assessments in Vietnam. We evaluate the current status, persisting gaps, and challenges regarding the understanding and assessment of flood risk in the country. The literature review revealed that: (i) 65 % of the reviewed papers did not provide a clear definition of flood risk, (ii) assessments had a tendency to prioritize physical and environmental drivers of risk over social, economic or governance‐related drivers, (iii) future‐oriented assessments tended to focus on hazard and exposure trends, while vulnerability scenarios were often lacking, (iv) large and middle‐sized cities were assessed more frequently than others, (v) only few studies engaged with relevant local stakeholders for the assessment of risk and the development of potential solutions, and (vi) ecosystem‐based adaptation and flood risk insurance solutions were rarely considered. Based on these findings, we point out several directions for future research on flood risk in Vietnam.

ACS Style

Minh Tu Nguyen; Zita Sebesvari; Maxime Souvignet; Felix Bachofer; Andreas Braun; Matthias Garschagen; Ulrike Schinkel; Liang Emlyn Yang; Linh Hoang Khanh Nguyen; Volker Hochschild; André Assmann; Michael Hagenlocher. Understanding and assessing flood risk in Vietnam: Current status, persisting gaps, and future directions. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2021, 14, 1 .

AMA Style

Minh Tu Nguyen, Zita Sebesvari, Maxime Souvignet, Felix Bachofer, Andreas Braun, Matthias Garschagen, Ulrike Schinkel, Liang Emlyn Yang, Linh Hoang Khanh Nguyen, Volker Hochschild, André Assmann, Michael Hagenlocher. Understanding and assessing flood risk in Vietnam: Current status, persisting gaps, and future directions. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2021; 14 (2):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Minh Tu Nguyen; Zita Sebesvari; Maxime Souvignet; Felix Bachofer; Andreas Braun; Matthias Garschagen; Ulrike Schinkel; Liang Emlyn Yang; Linh Hoang Khanh Nguyen; Volker Hochschild; André Assmann; Michael Hagenlocher. 2021. "Understanding and assessing flood risk in Vietnam: Current status, persisting gaps, and future directions." Journal of Flood Risk Management 14, no. 2: 1.

Research article
Published: 02 March 2020 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rainfed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, using socioecological susceptibility and lack of coping-capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems displays a heterogeneous pattern at the global level, with higher risk for southeastern Europe as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

ACS Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2020, 20, 695 -712.

AMA Style

Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2020; 20 (2):695-712.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. 2020. "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 2: 695-712.

Journal article
Published: 27 February 2020 in Urban Science
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Current rapid urbanization trends in developing countries present considerable challenges to local governments, potentially hindering efforts towards sustainable urban development. To effectively anticipate the challenges posed by urbanization, participatory modeling techniques can help to stimulate future-oriented decision-making by exploring alternative development scenarios. With the example of the coastal city of Monastir, we present the results of an integrated urban growth analysis that combines the SLEUTH (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, and hill shade) cellular automata model with qualitative inputs from relevant local stakeholders to simulate urban growth until 2030. While historical time-series of Landsat data fed a business-as-usual prediction, the quantification of narrative storylines derived from participatory scenario workshops enabled the creation of four additional urban growth scenarios. Results show that the growth of the city will occur at different rates under all scenarios. Both the “business-as-usual” (BaU) prediction and the four scenarios revealed that urban expansion is expected to further encroach on agricultural land by 2030. The various scenarios suggest that Monastir will expand between 127–149 hectares. The information provided here goes beyond simply projecting past trends, giving decision-makers the necessary support for both understanding possible future urban expansion pathways and proactively managing the future growth of the city.

ACS Style

Mostapha Harb; Matthias Garschagen; Davide Cotti; Elke Krätzschmar; Hayet Baccouche; Karem Ben Khaled; Felicitas Bellert; Bouraoui Chebil; Anis Ben Fredj; Sonia Ayed; Himanshu Shekhar; Michael Hagenlocher. Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia. Urban Science 2020, 4, 10 .

AMA Style

Mostapha Harb, Matthias Garschagen, Davide Cotti, Elke Krätzschmar, Hayet Baccouche, Karem Ben Khaled, Felicitas Bellert, Bouraoui Chebil, Anis Ben Fredj, Sonia Ayed, Himanshu Shekhar, Michael Hagenlocher. Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia. Urban Science. 2020; 4 (1):10.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mostapha Harb; Matthias Garschagen; Davide Cotti; Elke Krätzschmar; Hayet Baccouche; Karem Ben Khaled; Felicitas Bellert; Bouraoui Chebil; Anis Ben Fredj; Sonia Ayed; Himanshu Shekhar; Michael Hagenlocher. 2020. "Integrating Data-Driven and Participatory Modeling to Simulate Future Urban Growth Scenarios: Findings from Monastir, Tunisia." Urban Science 4, no. 1: 10.

Journal article
Published: 21 January 2020 in Sustainability
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The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.

ACS Style

Janna Frischen; Isabel Meza; Daniel Rupp; Katharina Wietler; Michael Hagenlocher. Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Sustainability 2020, 12, 752 .

AMA Style

Janna Frischen, Isabel Meza, Daniel Rupp, Katharina Wietler, Michael Hagenlocher. Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (3):752.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Janna Frischen; Isabel Meza; Daniel Rupp; Katharina Wietler; Michael Hagenlocher. 2020. "Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability." Sustainability 12, no. 3: 752.

Short communication
Published: 30 October 2019 in Annals of Tourism Research
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A large proportion of the global tourism industry is highly exposed and vulnerable to environmental hazards and has over the last years been highly affected by subsequent disasters and crises. Tourism involves the interactions of organizations, people, and events in a variety of subsystems. The complexity of this interconnected system and the relatively early-stage of tourism-related crisis and disaster studies suggests that a dialogue between the tourism and the disaster risk research communities could be beneficial in order to share knowledge and define gaps regarding crisis and disaster affecting the tourism industry. Our study aims at giving directions to fill this gap by reviewing key contributions on crisis and disaster risk management and adopting a systematic approach to review the tourism-oriented literature on the topic. Grounding on the analysis of 113 relevant publications, this note describes how the literature has developed to this point and where the field seems to be heading in the future. The findings point towards a research agenda for the future.

ACS Style

Giuseppe Aliperti; Simone Sandholz; Michael Hagenlocher; Francesco Rizzi; Marco Frey; Matthias Garschagen. TOURISM, CRISIS, DISASTER: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH. Annals of Tourism Research 2019, 79, 102808 .

AMA Style

Giuseppe Aliperti, Simone Sandholz, Michael Hagenlocher, Francesco Rizzi, Marco Frey, Matthias Garschagen. TOURISM, CRISIS, DISASTER: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH. Annals of Tourism Research. 2019; 79 ():102808.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Giuseppe Aliperti; Simone Sandholz; Michael Hagenlocher; Francesco Rizzi; Marco Frey; Matthias Garschagen. 2019. "TOURISM, CRISIS, DISASTER: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH." Annals of Tourism Research 79, no. : 102808.

Preprint content
Published: 02 August 2019
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Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities, and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rain-fed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a social-ecological systems perspective, using social-ecological susceptibility and lack of coping capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems displays heterogeneous pattern at the global level with higher risk for southeastern Europe, as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

ACS Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. 2019. "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 02 August 2019
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ACS Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. Supplementary material to "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems". 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, Michael Hagenlocher. Supplementary material to "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems". . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. 2019. "Supplementary material to "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems"." , no. : 1.

Accepted manuscript
Published: 17 May 2019 in Environmental Research Letters
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Reducing the social, environmental, and economic impacts of droughts and identifying pathways towards drought resilient societies remains a global priority. A common understanding of the drivers of drought risk and ways in which drought impacts materialize is crucial for improved assessments and for the identification and (spatial) planning of targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options. Over the past two decades, we have witnessed an increase in drought risk assessments across spatial and temporal scales drawing on a multitude of conceptual foundations and methodological approaches. Recognizing the diversity of approaches in science and practice as well as the associated opportunities and challenges, we present the outcomes of a systematic literature review of the state of the art of people-centered drought vulnerability and risk conceptualization and assessments, and identify persisting gaps. Our analysis shows that, of the reviewed assessments, (i) more than 60% do not explicitly specify the type of drought hazard that is addressed, (ii) 42% do not provide a clear definition of drought risk, (iii) 62% apply static, index-based approaches, (iv) 57% of the indicator-based assessments do not specify their weighting methods, (v) only 11% conduct any form of validation, (vi) only ten percent develop future scenarios of drought risk, and (vii) only about 40% of the assessments establish a direct link to drought risk reduction or adaptation strategies, i.e. consider solutions. We discuss the challenges associated with these findings for both assessment and identification of drought risk reduction measures and identify research needs to inform future research and policy agendas in order to advance the understanding of drought risk and support pathways towards more drought resilient societies.

ACS Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Isabel Meza; Carl Anderson; Annika Min; Fabrice G. Renaud; Yvonne Walz; Stefan Siebert; Zita Sebesvari. Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 083002 .

AMA Style

Michael Hagenlocher, Isabel Meza, Carl Anderson, Annika Min, Fabrice G. Renaud, Yvonne Walz, Stefan Siebert, Zita Sebesvari. Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (8):083002.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Isabel Meza; Carl Anderson; Annika Min; Fabrice G. Renaud; Yvonne Walz; Stefan Siebert; Zita Sebesvari. 2019. "Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 8: 083002.

Journal article
Published: 30 March 2019 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
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There are many index-based approaches for assessing vulnerability to socio-natural hazards with differences in underlying theory, indicator selection and aggregation methodology. Spatially explicit output scores depend on these characteristics and contrasting approaches can therefore lead to very different policy implications. These discrepancies call for more critical reflection on index design and utility, a discussion that has not kept pace with the impetus for vulnerability assessments and respective index creation and application following the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. Comparing index outputs is an effective approach in this regard. Here, the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®) and the vulnerability component of the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) are applied at census tract level in the Mississippi Delta and visually and quantitatively compared. While the SoVI® is grounded in the hazard/risk research paradigm with primarily socio-economic indicators and an inductive principal component methodology, the GDRI incorporates advancements from sustainability science with ecosystem-based indicators and a modular hierarchical design. Maps, class rank changes, and correlations are used to assess the convergence and divergence of these indexes across the delta. Results show that while very different theoretical frameworks influence scores through indicator selection, methodology of index calculation has an even greater effect on output. Within aggregative methodology, the treatment of inter-indicator correlation is decisive. Implications include the need for an increased focus on index methodology and validation of results, transparency, and critical reflection regarding assessment limitations, as our results imply that contradictory risk reduction policies could be considered depending on the assessment methodology used.

ACS Style

Carl C. Anderson; Michael Hagenlocher; Fabrice G. Renaud; Zita Sebesvari; Susan L. Cutter; Christopher T. Emrich. Comparing index-based vulnerability assessments in the Mississippi Delta: Implications of contrasting theories, indicators, and aggregation methodologies. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 39, 101128 .

AMA Style

Carl C. Anderson, Michael Hagenlocher, Fabrice G. Renaud, Zita Sebesvari, Susan L. Cutter, Christopher T. Emrich. Comparing index-based vulnerability assessments in the Mississippi Delta: Implications of contrasting theories, indicators, and aggregation methodologies. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2019; 39 ():101128.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carl C. Anderson; Michael Hagenlocher; Fabrice G. Renaud; Zita Sebesvari; Susan L. Cutter; Christopher T. Emrich. 2019. "Comparing index-based vulnerability assessments in the Mississippi Delta: Implications of contrasting theories, indicators, and aggregation methodologies." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 39, no. : 101128.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2018 in Science of The Total Environment
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Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies.

ACS Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Fabrice G. Renaud; Susanne Haas; Zita Sebesvari. Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards. Science of The Total Environment 2018, 631-632, 71 -80.

AMA Style

Michael Hagenlocher, Fabrice G. Renaud, Susanne Haas, Zita Sebesvari. Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards. Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 631-632 ():71-80.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Fabrice G. Renaud; Susanne Haas; Zita Sebesvari. 2018. "Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards." Science of The Total Environment 631-632, no. : 71-80.

Journal article
Published: 14 July 2017 in Scientific Reports
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Stochastic weather generators can generate very long time series of weather patterns, which are indispensable in earth sciences, ecology and climate research. Yet, both their potential and limitations remain largely unclear because past research has typically focused on eclectic case studies at small spatial scales in temperate climates. In addition, stochastic multi-site algorithms are usually not publicly available, making the reproducibility of results difficult. To overcome these limitations, we investigated the performance of the reduced-complexity multi-site precipitation generator TripleM across three different climatic regions in the United States. By resampling observations, we investigated for the first time the performance of a multi-site precipitation generator as a function of the extent of the gauge network and the network density. The definition of the role of the network density provides new insights into the applicability in data-poor contexts. The performance was assessed using nine different statistical metrics with main focus on the inter-annual variability of precipitation and the lengths of dry and wet spells. Among our study regions, our results indicate a more accurate performance in wet temperate climates compared to drier climates. Performance deficits are more marked at larger spatial scales due to the increasing heterogeneity of climatic conditions.

ACS Style

Korbinian Breinl; Giuliano Di Baldassarre; Marc Girons Lopez; Michael Hagenlocher; Giulia Vico; Anna Rutgersson. Can weather generation capture precipitation patterns across different climates, spatial scales and under data scarcity? Scientific Reports 2017, 7, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Korbinian Breinl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Marc Girons Lopez, Michael Hagenlocher, Giulia Vico, Anna Rutgersson. Can weather generation capture precipitation patterns across different climates, spatial scales and under data scarcity? Scientific Reports. 2017; 7 (1):1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Korbinian Breinl; Giuliano Di Baldassarre; Marc Girons Lopez; Michael Hagenlocher; Giulia Vico; Anna Rutgersson. 2017. "Can weather generation capture precipitation patterns across different climates, spatial scales and under data scarcity?" Scientific Reports 7, no. 1: 1-12.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2016 in Acta Tropica
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Dengue fever has gradually re-emerged across the global South, particularly affecting urban areas of the tropics and sub-tropics. The dynamics of dengue fever transmission are sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, as well as local demographic and socioeconomic factors. In 2010, the municipality of Cali, Colombia, experienced one of its worst outbreaks, however the outbreak was not spatially homogeneous across the city. In this paper, we evaluate the role of socioeconomic and environmental factors associated with this outbreak at the neighborhood level, using a Geographically Weighted Regression model. Key socioeconomic factors include population density and socioeconomic stratum, whereas environmental factors are proximity to both tire shops and plant nurseries and the presence of a sewage system (R(2)=0.64). The strength of the association between these factors and the incidence of dengue fever is spatially heterogeneous at the neighborhood level. The findings provide evidence to support public health strategies in allocating resources locally, which will enable a better detection of high risk areas, a reduction of the risk of infection and to strengthen the resilience of the population.

ACS Style

Eric Delmelle; Michael Hagenlocher; Stefan Kienberger; Irene Casas. A spatial model of socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue fever in Cali, Colombia. Acta Tropica 2016, 164, 169 -176.

AMA Style

Eric Delmelle, Michael Hagenlocher, Stefan Kienberger, Irene Casas. A spatial model of socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue fever in Cali, Colombia. Acta Tropica. 2016; 164 ():169-176.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Eric Delmelle; Michael Hagenlocher; Stefan Kienberger; Irene Casas. 2016. "A spatial model of socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue fever in Cali, Colombia." Acta Tropica 164, no. : 169-176.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2016 in Applied Geography
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Deprivation indices are widely used to identify areas characterized by above average social and/or material disadvantages. Especially spatial approaches have become increasingly popular since they enable decision makers to identify priority areas and to allocate their resources accordingly. An array of methods and spatial reporting units have been used to analyze and report deprivation in previous studies. However, a comparative analysis and assessment of the implications of the choice of the reporting unit for quality of life and health care accessibility planning is still missing. Based on a set of ten socioeconomic and health-related indicators, we constructed a weighted deprivation index for the urban area of Quito, Ecuador, using four different reporting units, including census blocks, census tracts, and two units based on the automatic zoning procedure (AZP). Spatial statistics and metrics are used to compare the resulting units, and a participatory expert-based approach is applied to evaluate their suitability for decision making processes. Besides structural differences regarding their size and shape, no strongly marked statistical or qualitative differences were found in the four analyzed spatial representations of deprivation. The four representations revealed similar spatial patterns of deprivation, with higher levels of deprivation in the peripheries of the city, especially in the southern and north-western parts. The study also suggests that census blocks, due to their fine spatial resolution, were considered most useful for quality of life and health care accessibility planning by local stakeholders.

ACS Style

Pablo Cabrera-Barona; Chunzhu Wei; Michael Hagenlocher. Multiscale evaluation of an urban deprivation index: Implications for quality of life and healthcare accessibility planning. Applied Geography 2016, 70, 1 -10.

AMA Style

Pablo Cabrera-Barona, Chunzhu Wei, Michael Hagenlocher. Multiscale evaluation of an urban deprivation index: Implications for quality of life and healthcare accessibility planning. Applied Geography. 2016; 70 ():1-10.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pablo Cabrera-Barona; Chunzhu Wei; Michael Hagenlocher. 2016. "Multiscale evaluation of an urban deprivation index: Implications for quality of life and healthcare accessibility planning." Applied Geography 70, no. : 1-10.

Journal article
Published: 01 March 2016 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
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Michael Hagenlocher; Daniel Hölbling; Stefan Kienberger; Sabine Vanhuysse; Peter Zeil. Spatial assessment of social vulnerability in the context of landmines and explosive remnants of war in Battambang province, Cambodia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2016, 15, 148 -161.

AMA Style

Michael Hagenlocher, Daniel Hölbling, Stefan Kienberger, Sabine Vanhuysse, Peter Zeil. Spatial assessment of social vulnerability in the context of landmines and explosive remnants of war in Battambang province, Cambodia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2016; 15 ():148-161.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Daniel Hölbling; Stefan Kienberger; Sabine Vanhuysse; Peter Zeil. 2016. "Spatial assessment of social vulnerability in the context of landmines and explosive remnants of war in Battambang province, Cambodia." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 15, no. : 148-161.

Journal article
Published: 18 February 2016 in Geospatial Health
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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

ACS Style

David Taylor; Michael Hagenlocher; Anne E. Jones; Stefan Kienberger; Joseph Leedale; Andrew P. Morse. Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES. Geospatial Health 2016, 11, 1 .

AMA Style

David Taylor, Michael Hagenlocher, Anne E. Jones, Stefan Kienberger, Joseph Leedale, Andrew P. Morse. Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES. Geospatial Health. 2016; 11 (1):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

David Taylor; Michael Hagenlocher; Anne E. Jones; Stefan Kienberger; Joseph Leedale; Andrew P. Morse. 2016. "Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES." Geospatial Health 11, no. 1: 1.

Journal article
Published: 03 February 2015 in Population Health Metrics
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Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) impose a heavy burden on vulnerable populations. Despite recent progress in eradication and control, malaria remains the most prevalent VBD. Integrative approaches that take into account environmental, socioeconomic, demographic, biological, cultural, and political factors contributing to malaria risk and vulnerability are needed to effectively reduce malaria burden. Although the focus on malaria risk has increasingly gained ground, little emphasis has been given to develop quantitative methods for assessing malaria risk including malaria vulnerability in a spatial explicit manner. Building on a conceptual risk and vulnerability framework, we propose a spatial explicit approach for modeling relative levels of malaria risk - as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability - in the United Republic of Tanzania. A logistic regression model was employed to identify a final set of risk factors and their contribution to malaria endemicity based on multidisciplinary geospatial information. We utilized a Geographic Information System for the construction and visualization of a malaria vulnerability index and its integration into a spatially explicit malaria risk map. The spatial pattern of malaria risk was very heterogeneous across the country. Malaria risk was higher in Mainland areas than in Zanzibar, which is a result of differences in both malaria entomological inoculation rate and prevailing vulnerabilities. Areas of high malaria risk were identified in the southeastern part of the country, as well as in two distinct "hotspots" in the northwestern part of the country bordering Lake Victoria, while concentrations of high malaria vulnerability seem to occur in the northwestern, western, and southeastern parts of the mainland. Results were visualized using both 10×10 km(2) grids and subnational administrative units. The presented approach makes an important contribution toward a decision support tool. By decomposing malaria risk into its components, the approach offers evidence on which factors could be targeted for reducing malaria risk and vulnerability to the disease. Ultimately, results offer relevant information for place-based intervention planning and more effective spatial allocation of resources.

ACS Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Marcia C Castro. Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model. Population Health Metrics 2015, 13, 2 .

AMA Style

Michael Hagenlocher, Marcia C Castro. Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model. Population Health Metrics. 2015; 13 (1):2.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Marcia C Castro. 2015. "Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model." Population Health Metrics 13, no. 1: 2.