Reducing the social, environmental, and economic impacts of droughts and identifying pathways towards drought resilient societies remains a global priority. A common understanding of the drivers of drought risk and ways in which drought impacts materialize is crucial for improved assessments and for the identification and (spatial) planning of targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options. Over the past two decades, we have witnessed an increase in drought risk assessments across spatial and temporal scales drawing on a multitude of conceptual foundations and methodological approaches. Recognizing the diversity of approaches in science and practice as well as the associated opportunities and challenges, we present the outcomes of a systematic literature review of the state of the art of people-centered drought vulnerability and risk conceptualization and assessments, and identify persisting gaps. Our analysis shows that, of the reviewed assessments, (i) more than 60% do not explicitly specify the type of drought hazard that is addressed, (ii) 42% do not provide a clear definition of drought risk, (iii) 62% apply static, index-based approaches, (iv) 57% of the indicator-based assessments do not specify their weighting methods, (v) only 11% conduct any form of validation, (vi) only ten percent develop future scenarios of drought risk, and (vii) only about 40% of the assessments establish a direct link to drought risk reduction or adaptation strategies, i.e. consider solutions. We discuss the challenges associated with these findings for both assessment and identification of drought risk reduction measures, and identify research needs to inform future research and policy agendas in order to advance the understanding of drought risk and support pathways towards more drought resilient societies.

Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rainfed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, using socioecological susceptibility and lack of coping-capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems displays a heterogeneous pattern at the global level, with higher risk for southeastern Europe as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.

Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities, and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rain-fed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a social-ecological systems perspective, using social-ecological susceptibility and lack of coping capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems displays heterogeneous pattern at the global level with higher risk for southeastern Europe, as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

Drought is a recurrent global phenomenon considered one of the most complex hazards with manifold impacts on communities, ecosystems, and economies. While many sectors are affected by drought, agriculture’s high dependency on water makes it particularly susceptible to droughts, threatening the livelihoods of many, and hampering the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Identifying pathways towards more drought resilient societies by analyzing the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk is of increasing importance for the identification, prioritization and planning of risk reduction, risk transfer and adaptation options. While major progress has been made regarding the mapping, prediction and monitoring of drought events at different spatial scales (local to global), comprehensive drought risk assessments that consider the complex interaction of drought hazards, exposure and vulnerability factors are still the exception.Here, we present, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment at national level for both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems. The analysis integrates (1) composite drought hazard indicators based on historical climate conditions (1980-2016), (2) exposure data represented by the harvest area of irrigated and rainfed systems, and (3) an expert-weighted set of social-ecological vulnerability indicators. The latter were identified through a systematic review of literature (n = 105 peer-reviewed articles) and expert consultations (n = 78 experts). This study attempted to characterize the average drought risk for the whole study period.Results show that drought risk of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems display different heterogeneous patterns at the global level with higher risk for southeastern Europe, as well as northern and southern Africa. The vulnerability to drought highlights the relevance to increase the countries’ coping capacity in order to reduce their overall drought risk. For instance, the United States, which despite being highly exposed to drought hazard, has low socio-ecological susceptibility and sufficiently high coping capacities to reduce the overall drought risk considerably. When comparing irrigated and rain-fed drought hazard/exposure, there are significant regional differences. For example, the northern part  of Central Africa and South America have low hazard/exposure levels of irrigated crops, resulting in a low total risk, although high vulnerability characterize these regions. South Africa, however, has a high amount of rain-fed crops exposed to drought, but a lower vulnerability compared to other African countries. Further, the drivers of drought risk vary substantially across and within countries, calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation options.Findings from this study underline the relevance of analyzing drought risk from a holistic and integrated perspective that brings together data from different sources and disciplines and based on a spatially explicit approach. Being based on open-source data, the approach allows for reproduction in varying regions and for different spatial scales, and can serve as a blueprint for future drought risk assessments for other affected sectors, such as water supply, tourism, or energy. By providing information on the underlying drivers and patterns of drought risk, this approach supports the identification of priority regions and provides entry points for targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options to move towards resilient agricultural systems.