Having updated knowledge of cropland extent is essential for crop monitoring and food security early warning. Previous research has proposed different methods and adopted various datasets for mapping cropland areas at regional to global scales. However, most approaches did not consider the characteristics of farming systems and apply the same classification method in different agroecological zones (AEZs). Furthermore, the acquisition of in situ samples for classification training remains challenging. To address these knowledge gaps and challenges, this study applied a zone-specific classification by comparing four classifiers (random forest, the support vector machine (SVM), the classification and regression tree (CART) and minimum distance) for cropland mapping over four different AEZs in the Zambezi River basin (ZRB). Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data and derived indices were used and synthesized to generate thirty-five layers for classification on the Google Earth Engine platform. Training samples were derived from three existing landcover datasets to minimize the cost of sample acquisitions over the large area. The final cropland map was generated at a 10 m resolution. The performance of the four classifiers and the viability of training samples were analysed. All classifiers presented higher accuracy in cool AEZs than in warm AEZs, which may be attributed to field size and lower confusion between cropland and grassland classes. This indicates that agricultural landscape may impact classification results regardless of the classifiers. Random forest was found to be the most stable and accurate classifier across different agricultural systems, with an overall accuracy of 84% and a kappa coefficient of 0.67. Samples extracted over the full agreement areas among existing datasets reduced uncertainty and provided reliable calibration sets as a replacement of costly in situ measurements. The methodology proposed by this study can be used to generate periodical high-resolution cropland maps in ZRB, which is helpful for the analysis of cropland extension and abandonment as well as intensity changes in response to the escalating population and food insecurity.

Crop model calibration and validation is vital for establishing their credibility and ability in simulating crop growth and yield. A split–split plot design field experiment was carried out with sowing dates (SD1, SD2 and SD3); maize cultivars (ZMS606, PHB30G19 and PHB30B50) and nitrogen fertilizer rates (N1, N2 and N3) as the main plot, subplot and sub-subplot with three replicates, respectively. The experiment was carried out at Mount Makulu Central Research Station, Chilanga, Zambia in the 2016/2017 season. The study objective was to calibrate and validate APSIM-Maize and DSSAT-CERES-Maize models in simulating phenology, mLAI, soil water content, aboveground biomass and grain yield under rainfed and irrigated conditions. Days after planting to anthesis (APSIM-Maize, anthesis (DAP) RMSE = 1.91 days; DSSAT-CERES-Maize, anthesis (DAP) RMSE = 2.89 days) and maturity (APSIM-Maize, maturity (DAP) RMSE = 3.35 days; DSSAT-CERES-Maize, maturity (DAP) RMSE = 3.13 days) were adequately simulated, with RMSEn being <5%. The grain yield RMSE was 1.38 t ha⁻¹ (APSIM-Maize) and 0.84 t ha⁻¹ (DSSAT-CERES-Maize). The APSIM- and-DSSAT-CERES-Maize models accurately simulated the grain yield, grain number m⁻², soil water content (soil layers 1–8, RMSEn ≤ 20%), biomass and grain yield, with RMSEn ≤ 30% under rainfed condition. Model validation showed acceptable performances under the irrigated condition. The models can be used in identifying management options provided climate and soil physiochemical properties are available.

Precipitation plays an important role in the food production of Southern Africa. Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation is helpful for improving agricultural management and flood and drought risk assessment. However, a comprehensive precipitation pattern analysis is challenging in sparsely gauged and underdeveloped regions. To solve this problem, Version 7 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation products and Google Earth Engine (GEE) were adopted in this study for the analysis of spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation in the Zambezi River Basin. The Kendall’s correlation and sen’s Slop reducers in GEE were used to examine precipitation trends and magnitude, respectively, at annual, seasonal and monthly scales from 1998 to 2017. The results reveal that 10% of the Zambezi River basin showed a significant decreasing trend of annual precipitation, while only 1% showed a significant increasing trend. The rainy-season precipitation appeared to have a dominant impact on the annual precipitation pattern. The rainy-season precipitation was found to have larger spatial, temporal and magnitude variation than the dry-season precipitation. In terms of monthly precipitation, June to September during the dry season were dominated by a significant decreasing trend. However, areas presenting a significant decreasing trend were rare (<12% of study area) and scattered during the rainy-season months (November to April of the subsequent year). Spatially, the highest and lowest rainfall regions were shifted by year, with extreme precipitation events (highest and lowest rainfall) occurring preferentially over the northwest side rather than the northeast area of the Zambezi River Basin. A “dry gets dryer, wet gets wetter” (DGDWGW) pattern was also observed over the study area, and a suggestion on agriculture management according to precipitation patterns is provided in this study for the region. This is the first study to use long-term remote sensing data and GEE for precipitation analysis at various temporal scales in the Zambezi River Basin. The methodology proposed in this study is helpful for the spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation in developing countries with scarce gauge stations, limited analytic skills and insufficient computation resources. The approaches of this study can also be operationally applied to the analysis of other climate variables, such as temperature and solar radiation.

Numerous modelling efforts have focused on maize as it is an important cereal crop for both human consumption and livestock production. Crop simulation and multi-linear regressions models can be used to quantify the likely potential impacts of climate change on maize growth and yield. Such models include AquaCrop, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT), EPIC, CropSyst, Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2), SARRA-H, IMPACT+DSSAT, DSSAT, ALAMANC, WOFOST, ADEL, GEPIC, Empirical, MOS, GLAM-Maize, InfoCrop and EcoCrop, among others. Models give predictions utilizing meteorological, soil and crop data in numerical simulations. Various sources of climatic data are available including government meteorological and research departments, world organizations and private institutions. Climate data can also be generated using statistical and dynamical downscaling tools. The review showed that future maize growth and yield would be affected by changes in precipitation, temperature and soil fertility. Rise in temperature is the major factor altering maize yield. Nevertheless, crop simulation models have been observed to give mixed results depending on the region and the crop. Sources of uncertainty in predictions have been attributed to challenges in model parameterization, calibration and validation.