Lisbon is a European Mediterranean city, greatly exposed to heatwaves (HW), according to recent trends and climate change prospects. Considering the Atlantic influence, air temperature observations from Lisbon’s mesoscale network are used to investigate the interactions between background weather and the urban thermal signal (UTS) in summer. Days are classified according to the prevailing regional wind direction, and hourly UTS is compared between HW and non-HW conditions. Northern-wind days predominate, revealing greater maximum air temperatures (up to 40 °C) and greater thermal amplitudes (approximately 10 °C), and account for 37 out of 49 HW days; southern-wind days have milder temperatures, and no HWs occur. Results show that the wind direction groups are significantly different. While southern-wind days have minor UTS variations, northern-wind days have a consistent UTS daily cycle: a diurnal urban cooling island (UCI) (often lower than –1.0 °C), a late afternoon peak urban heat island (UHI) (occasionally surpassing 4.0 °C), and a stable nocturnal UHI (1.5 °C median intensity). UHI/UCI intensities are not significantly different between HW and non-HW conditions, although the synoptic influence is noted. Results indicate that, in Lisbon, the UHI intensity does not increase during HW events, although it is significantly affected by wind. As such, local climate change adaptation strategies must be based on scenarios that account for the synergies between potential changes in regional air temperature and wind.

Air temperature is a key aspect of urban environmental health, especially considering population and climate change prospects. While the urban heat island (UHI) effect may aggravate thermal exposure, city-level UHI regression studies are generally restricted to temporal-aggregated intensities (e.g., seasonal), as a function of time-fixed factors (e.g., urban density). Hence, such approaches do not disclose daily urban-rural air temperature changes, such as during heatwaves (HW). Here, summer data from Lisbon's air temperature urban network (June to September 2005-2014), is used to develop a linear mixed-effects model (LMM) to predict the daily median and maximum Urban Thermal Signal (UTS) intensities, as a response to the interactions between the time-varying background weather variables (i.e., the regional/non-urban air temperature, 2-hours air temperature change, and wind speed), and time-fixed urban and geographic factors (local climate zones and directional topographic exposure). Results show that, in Lisbon, greatest temperatures and UTS intensities are found in 'Compact' areas of the city are proportional to the background air temperature change. In leeward locations, the UTS can be enhanced by the topographic shelter effect, depending on wind speed - i.e., as wind speed augments, the UTS intensity increases in leeward sites, even where sparsely built. The UTS response to a future urban densification scenario, considering climate change HW conditions (RCP8.5, 2081-2100 period), was also assessed, its results showing an UTS increase of circa 1.0 °C, in critical areas of the city, despite their upwind location. This LMM empirical approach provides a straightforward tool for local authorities to: (i) identify the short-term critical areas of the city, to prioritise public health measures, especially during HW events; and (ii) test the urban thermal performance, in response to climate change and urban planning scenarios. While the model coefficient estimates are case-specific, the approach can be efficiently replicated in other locations with similar biogeographic conditions.

Local Climate Zones (LCZ) have become a worldwide standard for identifying land cover classes, according to their climate-relevant morphological parameters. The LCZ's are mostly used to evaluate urban climate performance, particularly the relationship between the urban heat island effect (UHI) and the characteristics of the built-up environment. The World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) has provided a supervised LCZ classification method based only on moderate resolution free satellite imagery, mostly Landsat 7 or 8 (30 m pixel size, in the visible spectrum brands); however, its’ results are less accurate for European cities. Conversely, alternative geographic information system (GIS)-based methods developed so far require information that is hardly available to all, such as building footprints or heights. Here, the ArcGIS based LCZ from Copernicus Toolbox (LCZC) provides an alternative classification method that uses only freely accessible information from the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (CLMS), being possible to replicate it in 800 European urban locations. The method combines Urban Atlas (UA) and Corine Land Cover (CLC) with Tree Cover Density, Dominant Leaf Type and Grassland information, to produce a higher-resolution baseline shapefile that is classified according to each feature's dominant characteristics. The LCZC toolbox output is a LCZ raster map. It has been validated in five European cities: Athens, Barcelona, Lisbon, Marseille, and Naples.•The LCZC toolbox provides an alternative LCZ GIS-based classification, based on freely accessible CLMS datasets.•The use of CLMS shapefile higher-resolution inputs, particularly the UA and CLC datasets, ensures an output LCZ map that has greater detail and higher accuracy.•The availability of CLMS information in 800 European urban areas guarantees that the method can be replicated in those locations.