Historical analysis of wildfire frequency, intensity, size, season, and type helps to determine the fire regime and the impacts of human activity in a region. Information about the temporal and spatial distribution of forest fires can help guide the formulation of integrated fire management policies. Mt Kenya Forest provides ecosystem services that sustain the livelihoods of local communities. However, forest fires have negatively affected sustainability of these services. This study describes recent fire patterns in the Mt Kenya forest. Field observations recorded by the Kenya Forest Service from 1980 to 2015 are analyzed. In addition, trends in fire occurrence over time and in relation to vegetation type are described. Key findings evidence a fire-prone period in February and March and a decrease of total burned area during the study period. Bush and grassland were the most fire-prone vegetation, and the fire regime varied in each forest station. Further, field observations were compared with satellite data. Some discrepancies between the field and satellite fire data were observed, especially for larger fires. These findings confirm the importance of monitoring efforts by the Kenya Forest Service to inform wildfire management. Recommendations are made on ways to improve fire monitoring and fire suppression efforts.

Climate change, vegetation dynamics, human activities and forest management influence the occurrence of fires. This study investigated the spatio-temporal variability of the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and its influence on fire occurrence in three different land use types in Mount Kenya Forest Reserve and National Park (MKFRNP): National Park (NP), Forest Stations (FS) and Farmlands (FL). The study used MODIS satellite data to obtain the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the VCI, the number of fires and the burnt area. The specific objectives of this research were (i) to examine the spatio-temporal variability of VCI, fire occurrence and burnt area in MKFRNP from 2003 to 2018 and (ii) to explore the relationship between VCI, fire occurrence and burnt area in different areas of the MKFRNP (NP, FS and FL). The findings show that even though fires occur throughout the year in MKFRNP, most of the fires occur during dry seasons. The relationship between spatio-temporal fire occurrence and VCI distribution is different for each land use type. In the FL, the probability of fire ignition and the number of fires per month was more or less the same irrespective of the VCI because of the traditional use of fire as a land management tool. However, the probability of fire ignition and the number of fires per month is high in the NP and FS when the VCI is below 50% (drought), especially in the dry seasons, when and where the impact of meteorological conditions and climate have much more impact than human activities. In addition to the efforts already made by communities, KFS and KWS in the fire fighting and monitoring system, satellite data can be useful to acquire accurate and timely information on the VCI and the likely spatio-temporal occurrence of fires in order to be prepared in the most fire-prone periods and improve fire management, the planning of resources and fire suppression activities in MKFRNP.