Financial and economic time series forecasting has never been an easy task due to its sensibility to political, economic and social factors. For this reason, people who invest in financial markets and currency exchange are usually looking for robust models that can ensure them to maximize their profile and minimize their losses as much as possible. Fortunately, recently, various studies have speculated that a special type of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) called Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) could improve the predictive accuracy of the behavior of the financial data over time. This paper aims to forecast: (i) the closing price of eight stock market indexes; and (ii) the closing price of six currency exchange rates related to the USD, using the RNNs model and its variants: the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The results show that the GRU gives the overall best results, especially for the univariate out-of-sample forecasting for the currency exchange rates and multivariate out-of-sample forecasting for the stock market indexes.

Motivation: One of the most widely used models to analyse genotype-by-environment data is the additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) model. Genotype-by-environment data resulting from multi-location trials are usually organized in two-way tables with genotypes in the rows and environments (location-year combinations) in the columns. The AMMI model applies singular value decomposition (SVD) to the residuals of a specific linear model, to decompose the genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) into a sum of multiplicative terms. However, SVD, being a least squares method, is highly sensitive to contamination and the presence of even a single outlier, if extreme, may draw the leading principal component towards itself resulting in possible misinterpretations and in turn lead to bad practical decisions. Since, as in many other real-life studies the distribution of these data is usually not normal due to the presence of outlying observations, either resulting from measurement errors or sometimes from individual intrinsic characteristics, robust SVD methods have been suggested to help overcome this handicap. Results: We propose a robust generalization of the AMMI model (the R-AMMI model) that overcomes the fragility of its classical version when the data are contaminated. Here, robust statistical methods replace the classic ones to model, structure and analyse GEI. The performance of the robust extensions of the AMMI model is assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation study where several contamination schemes are considered. Applications to two real plant datasets are also presented to illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology, which can be broadened to both animal and human genetics studies. Availability and implementation: Source code implemented in R is available in the supplementary material under the function r-AMMI. Contact:paulocanas@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

The prediction of air pollution is of great importance in highly populated areas because it directly impacts both the management of the city’s economic activity and the health of its inhabitants. This work evaluates and predicts the Spatio-temporal behavior of air quality in Metropolitan Lima, Peru, using artificial neural networks. The conventional feedforward backpropagation known as Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and the Recurrent Artificial Neural network known as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM) were implemented for the hourly prediction of $$\hbox {PM}_{10}$$PM 10 based on the past values of this pollutant and three meteorological variables obtained from five monitoring stations. The models were validated using two schemes: The Hold-Out and the Blocked-Nested Cross-Validation (BNCV). The simulation results show that periods of moderate $$\hbox {PM}_{10}$$PM 10 concentration are predicted with high precision. Whereas, for periods of high contamination, the performance of both models, the MLP and LSTM, were diminished. On the other hand, the prediction performance improved slightly when the models were trained and validated with the BNCV scheme. The simulation results showed that the models obtained a good performance for the CDM, CRB, and SMP monitoring stations, characterized by a moderate to low level of contamination. However, the results show the difficulty of predicting this contaminant in those stations that present critical contamination episodes, such as ATE and HCH. In conclusion, the LSTM recurrent artificial neural networks with BNCV adapt more precisely to critical pollution episodes and have better predictability performance for this type of environmental data.

Crude oil price forecasting is an important research area in the international bulk commodity market. However, as risk factors diversify, price movements exhibit more complex nonlinear behavior. Hence, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of forecasting Brent crude oil prices by comparing various hybrid combinations of linear and nonlinear time series models. To this end, first, the logarithmic transformation is used to stabilize the variance of the crude oil prices time series; second, the original time series of log crude oil prices is decomposed into two new subseries, such as a long-run trend series and a stochastic series, using the Hodrick–Prescott filter; and third, two linear and two nonlinear time series models are considered to forecast the decomposed subseries. Finally, the forecast results for each subseries are combined to obtain the final day-ahead forecast result. The proposed modeling framework is applied to daily Brent spot prices from 1 January 2013 to 27 December 2022. Six different accuracy metrics, pictorial analysis, and a statistical test are performed to verify the proposed methodology’s performance. The experimental results (accuracy measures, pictorial analysis, and statistical test) show the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed hybrid forecasting methodology. Additionally, our forecasting results are comparatively better than the benchmark models. Finally, we believe that the proposed forecasting method can be used for other complex financial time data to obtain highly efficient and accurate forecasts.