Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

The effect of a parasite on the life history of its vector is important for understanding and predicting disease transmission. Chagas disease agent Trypanosoma cruzi is a generalist parasite that is diverse across scales from its genetic diversity to the 100s of mammal and vector species it infects. Its vertebrate hosts show quite variable responses to infection, however, to date there are no studies looking at how T. cruzi variability might result in variable outcomes in its invertebrate host. Therefore, we investigated the effect of different T. cruzi I strains on Rhodnius prolixus survival and development. We found significant variation between insects infected with different strains, with some strains having no effect, as compared with uninfected insects, and others with significantly lower survival and development. We also found that different variables had varying importance between strains, with the effect of time postinfection and the blood:weight ratio of the infective meal significantly affecting the survival of insects infected with some strains, but not others. Our results suggest that T. cruzi can be pathogenic not only to its vertebrate hosts but also to its invertebrate hosts.

Chagas disease (caused by Trypanosoma cruzi) is the most important neglected tropical disease (NTD) in Latin America, infecting an estimated 5.7 million people in the 21 countries where it is endemic. It is one of the NTDs targeted for control and elimination by the 2020 London Declaration goals, with the first goal being to interrupt intra-domiciliary vector-borne T. cruzi transmission. A key question in domestic T. cruzi transmission is the role that synanthropic animals play in T. cruzi transmission to humans. Here, we ask, (1) do synanthropic animals need to be targeted in Chagas disease prevention policies?, and (2) how does the presence of animals affect the efficacy of vector control? We developed a simple mathematical model to simulate domestic vector-borne T. cruzi transmission and to specifically examine the interaction between the presence of synanthropic animals and effects of vector control. We used the model to explore how the interactions between triatomine bugs, humans and animals impact the number and proportion of T. cruzi-infected bugs and humans. We then examined how T. cruzi dynamics change when control measures targeting vector abundance are introduced into the system. We found that the presence of synanthropic animals slows the speed of T. cruzi transmission to humans, and increases the sensitivity of T. cruzi transmission dynamics to vector control measures at comparable triatomine carrying capacities. However, T. cruzi transmission is amplified when triatomine carrying capacity increases with the abundance of syntathoropic hosts. Our results suggest that in domestic T. cruzi transmission scenarios where no vector control measures are in place, a reduction in synanthropic animals may slow T. cruzi transmission to humans, but it would not completely eliminate transmission. To reach the 2020 goal of interrupting intra-domiciliary T. cruzi transmission, it is critical to target vector populations. Additionally, where vector control measures are in place, synanthropic animals may be beneficial.

Flight dispersal of the triatomine bug species Rhodnius pallescens Barber, the principal vector of Chagas disease in Panama, is an important mechanis

SUMMARY: Trypanosoma cruzi, causative agent of Chagas disease, co-infects its triatomine vector with its sister speciesTrypanosoma rangeli, which shares 60% of its antigens withT. cruzi. Additionally,T. rangelihas been observed to be pathogenic in some of its vector species. AlthoughT. cruzi–T. rangelico-infections are common, their effect on the vector has rarely been investigated. Therefore, we measured the fitness (survival and reproduction) of triatomine speciesRhodnius prolixusinfected with justT. cruzi, justT. rangeli, or bothT. cruziandT. rangeli. We found that survival (as estimated by survival probability and hazard ratios) was significantly different between treatments, with theT. cruzitreatment group having lower survival than the co-infected treatment. Reproduction and total fitness estimates in theT. cruziandT. rangelitreatments were significantly lower than in the co-infected and control groups. TheT. cruziandT. rangelitreatment group fitness estimates were not significantly different from each other. Additionally, co-infected insects appeared to tolerate higher doses of parasites than insects with single-species infections. Our results suggest thatT. cruzi–T. rangelico-infection could ameliorate negative effects of single infections of either parasite onR. prolixusand potentially help it to tolerate higher parasite doses.