Discrepancies in trade statistics can be normal or benign and attributed to a wide variety of unintentional factors, or in some instances within the timber products sector, such discrepancies can be associated with “systemic” factors that distort trade statistics, including (i) measurement and shipment issues, (ii) misreporting of product volumes, (iii) misclassification of timber product types, and (iv) government regulations concerned about trade. This study measured trade discrepancies in logs and lumber trade statistics for China and its trading partner countries from 2002 to 2018 using a time-lagged function, based on the customs data available from Global Trade Information Services (GTIS), with the aim of exploring a more nuanced understanding of trade discrepancies and their “systemic” factors. The results showed that the range of overall discrepancies in logs and lumber trade statistics shrunk over time, from [−0.069, 1.207] in 2002–2007 to [−0.120, 0.408] in 2013–2018. The larger trade flows of logs and lumber from Russia, New Zealand, and the U.S. (each above 10% of total China’s import) showed small trade statistics discrepancy ratios, which were less than ± 0.06. However, trade discrepancies still remained large at the disaggregated level, and significant differences of trade discrepancies between tropical and non-tropical countries. The range of trade discrepancies in hardwood logs increased from 2002 to 2018 and appeared to be attributed to misclassification and misreporting in tropical countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Ghana. However, these countries’ trade flows are becoming relatively minor over time. Government policies are suggested to play an important role in influencing both the occurrence and resolution of trade discrepancies.

Socio-economic status, technologies, and policies are key factors affecting forest management planning and forest ecosystem functions. This study applied shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to a forest-management model framework. The potential timber yields and carbon sinks of spatially allocate alternatives were examined by quantifying their consequent changes at the regional tree species level in Chinese commercial forests (CFs) under the harvest and afforestation restrictions. The results indicate that the annual carbon sequestration rate of China’s CFs over the next 50 years is estimated to be 152.0–162.5 Tg/a, which can offset approximately 5% of the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions identified in 2019. Newly planted and regenerated forests can contribute more than 80% of this offset. The annual timber supply capacity is estimated to be 119.2–142.4 million m³/a with current policy interventions, which is not enough to meet the demand for China’s timber market. Although most existing forests are managed as the primary source for forest goods and carbon service, the total commercial forest area changes are not as large as expected, resulting in only 2.0–10.6% differences. Our results also demonstrate that socioeconomic factors (e.g., social preference, carbon price, and forest logging and silvicultural practices) have a strong impact on carbon sinks but a minor impact on timber yields timber, except for improving harvesting and processing technologies. Establishing local long-term effective forest management systems and making afforestation and regeneration as a priority at the national level are suggested to comprehensively enhance the carbon sequestration and timber-supplying abilities of regional CFs.