This paper proposes a real-time trajectory prediction method for quadrotors based on a bidirectional gated recurrent unit model. Historical trajectory data of ten types of quadrotors were obtained. The bidirectional gated recurrent units were constructed and utilized to learn the historic data. The prediction results were compared with the traditional gated recurrent unit method to test its prediction performance. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was investigated by comparing the training loss and training time. The results over the testing datasets showed that the proposed model produced better prediction results than the baseline models for all scenarios of the testing datasets. It was also found that the proposed model can converge to a stable state faster than the traditional gated recurrent unit model. Moreover, various types of training samples were applied and compared. With the same randomly selected test datasets, the performance of the prediction model can be improved by selecting the historical trajectory samples of the quadrotors close to the weight or volume of the target quadrotor for training. In addition, the performance of stable trajectory samples is significantly better than that with unstable trajectory segments with a frequent change of speed and direction with large angles.

Recent years have seen an increase in events of drone incursion into airport terminal areas, leading to safety concerns and disruptions to airline operations. It is of great importance to identify the potential conflict, especially for those non-cooperative drones, as their intentions are always unknown. For the safe operation of air traffic, this paper proposes a conflict risk assessment method between non-cooperative drones and manned aircraft in the terminal area. First, the trajectory data of manned aircraft and drones are obtained. Real-time cylindrical protection zones are established around manned aircraft according to the separation interval for safe operation between the drone and the manned aircraft at different altitudes. Secondly, trajectory predictions for the manned aircraft and the drone are conducted, respectively. A quartile regression bidirectional gate recurrent unit neural network is proposed in this research for the trajectory prediction of the drones. The model integrates the bidirectional gated recurrent unit structure and the quartile regression structure. The performance indicators confirm the superiority of the proposed model. Based on the trajectory prediction results, it is then determined whether there is a conflict risk between the drone and manned aircraft by comparing the position distribution of the drone as well as the real-time cylindrical protection zone of the manned aircraft. The conflict probability between the drone and the manned aircraft is then calculated. The prediction accuracy of conflict probability is estimated by Monte Carlo simulation methods. The collision probability prediction accuracy of manned aircraft and drones at different flight stages and altitudes ranges from 73% to 97%, which shows the reliability of the proposed method. Finally, the collision probability between the drone and the manned aircraft at the closest encountering point and the estimated time to reach the closest encountering point are calculated. This paper predicts the conflict risk between the drone and manned aircraft, thus providing theoretical support for the safe operation of air transport in low-altitude environments.

Exploring the delay causality between airports and comparing the delay propagation patterns across different airport networks is critical to better understand delay propagation mechanisms and provide effective delay mitigation strategies. A novel attention-based recurrent graph convolutional neural network is proposed to identify the hidden delay causality relationship among airports in three different airport networks of China. The selected three airport networks show great heterogeneities in topological characteristics, such as average intensity, modularity and eigenvector centrality. The modeling results indicate that the identified delay causality networks of three airport networks are greatly varied in terms of complexity, delay propagation distance and efficiency. Moreover, the delay state of each airport is categorized into three levels, and the delay state transition of the three networks is explored. The results indicate that delay state transition in the North China Control Area exhibits an obvious bidirectional transition form that mainly propagates between the large-degree airports and small-degree airports, while severe delays of some hub airports account for a relatively large proportion in the other two networks. The results of this study could better reveal the delay propagation mechanism among airports and help airport operators develop effective strategies to alleviate flight delays and improve airport operation efficiency.

This paper proposes a simulation-based framework for assessing airborne self-separation procedures in flow corridors with consideration of different performance metrics, including air traffic operations, corridor capacity, safety, and environmental impacts. Firstly, the airborne self-separation concept in flow corridors is introduced, followed by an agent-based flow corridor simulation model. Then, data were collected to initialize a parallel-lane flow corridor model connecting A461 upper air route from Beijing to Guangzhou in China which can also simulate aircraft self-separating in the flow corridor. The total control delay, flow corridor throughput, breakout rate, and the CO₂ emissions of traffic flow were considered as the impact measurements, and the TOPSIS and entropy method was used to rank the performances of different self-separation procedures. We found that combining multiple objectives into one, the optimum scheme can be obtained to guide the design of self-separation procedures for flow corridors. The research results can be used by airspace managers to dynamically develop appropriate operational procedures and rules for flow corridors given different operational conditions and constraints. Also, the framework proposed in the research may be used to evaluate the design of airspace structure with consideration of multiple objectives.