Afshin Ostovar

Prof. Afshin Ostovar

Osteoporosis Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

25Years (2002-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 December 2017 in The Lancet
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
LALeandra Abarca-Gómez
Leandra Abarca-Gómez
ZAZiad A Abdeen
Ziad A Abdeen
ZHZargar Abdul Hamid
Zargar Abdul Hamid
NANiveen M Abu-Rmeileh
Niveen M Abu-Rmeileh
BABenjamin Acosta-Cazares
Benjamin Acosta-Cazares
MEMajid Ezzati
Majid Ezzati
Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese. The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

8 May 2019 in Nature
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Journal Article
Open access
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Yousef KhaderYousef Khader
Yousef Khader
HBHonor Bixby
Honor Bixby
JBJames Bentham
James Bentham
BZBin Zhou
Bin Zhou
MCMariachiara Di Cesare
Mariachiara Di Cesare
MEMajid Ezzati
Majid Ezzati
Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3–6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

3 June 2020 in Nature
Verified
Journal Article
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CTCristina Taddei
Cristina Taddei
BZBin Zhou
Bin Zhou
HBHonor Bixby
Honor Bixby
RCRodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco
Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco
GDGoodarz Danaei
Goodarz Danaei
MEMajid Ezzati
Majid Ezzati
High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries 1,2 . However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world 3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health 4,5 . However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

1 August 2019 in Cancer Epidemiology
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
GRGholamreza Roshandel
Gholamreza Roshandel
AGAli Ghanbari-Motlagh
Ali Ghanbari-Motlagh
EPElham Partovipour
Elham Partovipour
FSFereshteh Salavati
Fereshteh Salavati
SHSusan Hasanpour-Heidari
Susan Hasanpour-Heidari
RMReza Malekzadeh
Reza Malekzadeh

6 July 2016 in Tobacco Control
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
PDF file
DSDobaradaran Sina
Dobaradaran Sina
INIraj Nabipour
Iraj Nabipour
RSReza Saeedi
Reza Saeedi
AOAfshin Ostovar
Afshin Ostovar
MKMaryam Khorsand
Maryam Khorsand
MKMozhgan Keshtkar
Mozhgan Keshtkar
Cigarette butts are the most common form of litter in the marine environment and represent potential point sources for environmental contamination. The metals leached from cigarette butts have not been studied well in the marine environment. In this study, the levels of metals (Cd, Fe, As, Ni, Cu, Zn and Mn) in cigarette butts were monitored at nine stations along the northern part of the Persian Gulf in Bushehr coastal areas in summer 2015 with a sampling time interval of 10 days. The Cd, Fe, As, Ni, Cu, Zn and Mn contents of cigarette butts were found to vary widely between 0.16 and 0.67 μg/g, 79.01 and 244.97 μg/g, 0.12 and 0.48 μg/g, 1.13 and 3.27 μg/g, 4.29 and 12.29 μg/g, 6.39 and 21.17 μg/g, and 38.29 and 123.1 μg/g, respectively. A Wilcoxon signed rank test showed that there were no significant differences between the Cd, Fe, As, Ni, Cu, Zn and Mn contents of cigarette butts at different sampling times. Considering the estimated number of cigarette butts littered annually, the results of this study indicated that considerable metals including Cd, Fe, As, Ni, Cu, Zn and Mn may enter the marine environment each year from cigarette litter alone.

4 August 2017 in BMJ Open
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
GSGita Shafiee
Gita Shafiee
AOAfshin Ostovar
Afshin Ostovar
RHRamin Heshmat
Ramin Heshmat
HDHossein Darabi
Hossein Darabi
FSFarshad Sharifi
Farshad Sharifi
BLBagher Larijani
Bagher Larijani
Introduction Musculoskeletal disorders and cognitive diseases are prevalent, and they are significant determinants of morbidity and mortality in older adults. The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of musculoskeletal and cognitive diseases and their risk factors and also to assess their associations during future follow-ups. Methods and analysis Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) programme is a population-based prospective cohort study being conducted in Bushehr, a southern province of Iran. A total of 3000 older people aged ≥60 years participated in the first stage from which 2772 were eligible to participate in the second stage, which started after 2.5 years. Data including demographic status, lifestyle factors, general healthandmedical history, and mentalandfunctional health are collected through a questionnaire. Anthropometric measures, performance testsandmuscle strength, blood pressure and and body composition measurements are done. A total 25 cc venous blood is taken, and sera are stored at –80°C for possible future analyses. Ethics and dissemination The study protocol was approved by the ethics committee of Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, affiliated to Tehran University of Medical Science as well as the Research Ethics Committee of Bushehr University of Medical Sciences. A written informed consent was signed by all the participants. The study findings will show the prevalence of musculoskeletal disease, cognitive impairment and their risk factors in an elderly population. The participants will be followed during the study to measure the occurrence outcomes. This study will also have the potential to inform the development of beneficial interventions to improve the management of musculoskeletal and cognitive impairment in Iran and other countries in the Middle East. Our findings will be disseminated via scientific publication as well as presentation to stakeholders, including the patients, clinicians, the public and policymakers, via appropriate avenues.