Beginning in 2016, all couples in China were allowed to have two children without any restrictions. This paper provides population and economic projections under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and three fertility policies. By replacing the one‐child policy with a two‐child policy, the population is predicted to continue growing until 2025‐2035, with a peak of approximately 1.39‐1.42 billion, and then to decline under four SSPs, with the exception of the fragmented world SSP3. As a result, the two‐child policy will lead to mitigation of the pressure from labour shortages and ageing problems to a certain extent. In addition, an increase in working‐age people with higher education level relative to projections based on the one‐child policy will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by approximately 38.1%‐43.9% in the late 21^st century. However, labour shortages and ageing problems are inevitable, and the proportion of elderly in China will be greater than 14% and 21% by approximately 2025 and 2035, respectively. Full liberalization of fertility is expected to reduce the share of elderly people by 0.7%‐1.0% and to lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 5.3%‐6.7% relative to the two‐child policy in the late 21^st century. The full liberalization of fertility policies is recommended, supplemented by increases in pension and child‐rearing funds, improvement in the quality of health services for females and children, and extension of compulsory education to meet the needs of an aged society.

As public service facilities, urban parks offer many benefits for daily life and social activities for residents. However, the accessibility of public parks to urban residents is often unevenly distributed in spaces that cannot be utilized fully. Here, we used the urban parks in Beijing, China as a case study and examined the relationship between urban park accessibility and population distribution at different administrative levels. Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve were used to evaluate the social equity of urban park accessibility, and the location quotient was used to identify the spatial difference between urban parks and resident population. The results of our study show that the urban park accessibility varies at district and subdistrict levels and that places with more urban parks usually have higher accessibility. Very importantly, the spatial equity is different from the social equity, a mismatch exists between the spatial distribution of urban parks and population, particularly for the elderly residents. These results generate valuable insights, as, in China and many developing countries, current urban public green space planning only uses the ratio of public green space to urban construction land and the per capita public green area.

Background: Exposure to natural outdoor environments (NOE) has been shown to be beneficial to older adults’ health and functioning, yet this assertion has rarely been tested in China. We investigated the relationships between exposure to NOE and older adults’ self-rated health in Shanghai, China and examined whether these relationships varied by sex, age, education and hukou status. Method: This cross-sectional study used micro-data sample of the 2010 Shanghai population census, including 7962 older adults nested within 3345 neighbourhoods. Self-rated health was the outcome variable. Four NOE exposure indicators were calculated for each neighbourhood: the amount of surrounding greenness/blueness and proximity to large green/blue spaces. Multilevel logistic regression was employed to explore the association between natural outdoor environment exposure and self-rated health, adjusting for individual-level and neighbourhood-level covariates. Stratified analyses were used to examine variations by sex, age, education and hukou status. Results: Older adults living in neighbourhoods with higher surrounding greenness and higher proximity to both green spaces and blue spaces were more likely to report good health. Residential surrounding blueness was not significantly related to self-rated health. Females, those aged 60–69 years, those who had elementary school or junior high school education and those with non-local hukou benefit more from residential surrounding greenness, and those aged 70–79 years and who had elementary school or junior high school education benefit more from residential proximity to blue spaces. Conclusions: Higher residential greenness and proximity to both green spaces and blue spaces were associated with better self-rated health, particularly for females, younger older adults, the low educated and non-local hukou holders. Our findings suggest that urban green spaces and urban blue spaces have different effects on health among Chinese older adults and that the assessment of exposure matters to the investigation of NOE-health relationships.

Background: Despite active travel investment increasing, evidence of benefit is often limited to selected health outcomes and a short follow-up period, and cyclists and pedestrians are often analysed together. We aimed to examine prospective associations with multiple health outcomes over 18 years for pedestrians and cyclists separately. Methods: The Scottish Longitudinal Study is based on census data, from which we selected 82 297 individuals aged 16–74 years. Individuals were followed-up between 2001 and 2018 through linkage to hospitalisation, death and prescription records. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare cyclist and pedestrian commuters with non-active commuters for a range of health outcomes, controlling for pre-existing health conditions, and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Results: Compared with non-active commuting, cyclist commuting was associated with lower all-cause mortality risk (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.73), lower risk of any hospitalisation (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.97), lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospitalisation (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.91) and of having a CVD prescription (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.78), lower risk of cancer mortality (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.82) and cancer hospitalisation (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.98), and lower risk of having a prescription for mental health problems (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.89). Pedestrian commuting was associated with lower risk of any hospitalisation (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.93), lower risk of CVD hospitalisation (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.96) and of having a CVD prescription (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.93), and lower risk of a mental health prescription (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90 to 0.97). Conclusion: Active commuters were less likely to suffer from a range of negative physical and mental health outcomes than non-active commuters. These findings strengthen the evidence for the health benefits of active commuting.