Lassa fever is caused by a viral haemorrhagic arenavirus that affects two to three million people in West Africa, causing a mortality of between 5,000 and 10,000 each year. The natural reservoir of Lassa virus is the multi-mammate rat Mastomys natalensis, which lives in houses and surrounding fields. With the aim of gaining more information to control this disease, we here carry out a spatial analysis of Lassa fever data from human cases and infected rodent hosts covering the period 1965–2007. Information on contemporary environmental conditions (temperature, rainfall, vegetation) was derived from NASA Terra MODIS satellite sensor data and other sources and for elevation from the GTOPO30 surface for the region from Senegal to the Congo. All multi-temporal data were analysed using temporal Fourier techniques to generate images of means, amplitudes and phases which were used as the predictor variables in the models. In addition, meteorological rainfall data collected between 1951 and 1989 were used to generate a synoptic rainfall surface for the same region. Three different analyses (models) are presented, one superimposing Lassa fever outbreaks on the mean rainfall surface (Model 1) and the other two using non-linear discriminant analytical techniques. Model 2 selected variables in a step-wise inclusive fashion, and Model 3 used an information-theoretic approach in which many different random combinations of 10 variables were fitted to the Lassa fever data. Three combinations of absence∶presence clusters were used in each of Models 2 and 3, the 2 absence∶1 presence cluster combination giving what appeared to be the best result. Model 1 showed that the recorded outbreaks of Lassa fever in human populations occurred in zones receiving between 1,500 and 3,000 mm rainfall annually. Rainfall, and to a much lesser extent temperature variables, were most strongly selected in both Models 2 and 3, and neither vegetation nor altitude seemed particularly important. Both Models 2 and 3 produced mean kappa values in excess of 0.91 (Model 2) or 0.86 (Model 3), making them ‘Excellent’. The Lassa fever areas predicted by the models cover approximately 80% of each of Sierra Leone and Liberia, 50% of Guinea, 40% of Nigeria, 30% of each of Côte d'Ivoire, Togo and Benin, and 10% of Ghana. Previous studies on the eco-epidemiology of Lassa fever in Guinea, West Africa, have shown that the reservoir is two to three times more infected by Lassa virus in the rainy season than in the dry season. None of the intrinsic variables of the murine population, such as abundance or reproduction, was able to explain this seasonal variation in prevalence. We therefore here investigate the importance of extrinsic environmental variables, partly influenced by the idea that in the case of nephropathia epidemica in Europe contamination of the environment, and therefore survival of the pathogen outside the host, appears to be an important factor in this disease's epidemiology. We therefore made an extensive review of the literature, gathering information about the geographical location of sites where Lassa fever has been certainly identified. Environmental data for these sites (rainfall, temperature, vegetation and altitude) were gathered from a variety of sources, both satellites and ground-based meteorological stations. Several statistical treatments were applied to produce Lassa ‘risk maps’. These maps all indicate a strong influence of rainfall, and a lesser influence of temperature in defining high risk areas. The area of greatest risk is located between Guinea and Cameroon.

Lassa virus (LASV) causes a deadly haemorrhagic fever in humans, killing several thousand people in West Africa annually. For 40 years, the Natal multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis, has been assumed to be the sole host of LASV. We found evidence that LASV is also hosted by other rodent species: the African wood mouse Hylomyscus pamfi in Nigeria, and the Guinea multimammate mouse Mastomys erythroleucus in both Nigeria and Guinea. Virus strains from these animals were isolated in the BSL-4 laboratory and fully sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses of viral genes coding for glycoprotein, nucleoprotein, polymerase and matrix protein show that Lassa strains detected in M. erythroleucus belong to lineages III and IV. The strain from H. pamfi clusters close to lineage I (for S gene) and between II & III (for L gene). Discovery of new rodent hosts has implications for LASV evolution and its spread into new areas within West Africa.

Based on empiric surveillance data, the incidence of human Lassa fever (LF) cases in Guinea and other West African countries has been reported to increase during the dry season compared to the rainy season. To investigate possible links with the ecology of the rodent reservoir of the virus, we conducted a 2-year longitudinal survey of Mastomys natalensis in a region of high human Lassa virus (LASV) seropositivity in Guinea. Standardized rodent trapping with similar trapping efforts between seasons was performed in three villages and 53.5% (601/1123) of the animals were identified as M. natalensis using morphometric and molecular criteria. Mean trapping success (TS) of M. natalensis was always higher inside houses than in proximal cultivations. In the dry season, mean TS increased 2-fold inside houses and decreased up to 10-fold outside (p < 0.0001), suggesting aggregation of rodents inside houses due to restricted food supply. 14.5% (80/553) of M. natalensis were tested positive for Lassa virus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR; range, 5%-30%) and prevalence of the virus was two to three times higher in rodents captured in the rainy season than in the dry season (p < 0.05). Inside houses, however, the LASV prevalence fluctuated nonsignificantly with season. These data suggest that in Guinea the risk of LASV transmission from rodents to humans is present both in the rainy and the dry season, reflected by the occurrence of LF cases throughout the year. In the dry season, however, the increased risk of humans encountering Mastomys and their excreta inside of houses may result in an increase of human Lassa fever cases.

The multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the reservoir for Lassa virus (LASV). Zoonotic transmission occurs when humans are directly or indirectly exposed to fluids of the multimammate mouse, such as urine, saliva, and blood. Housing characteristics and domestic organization affect rodent density in and around households and villages, and are likely to be a risk factor for Lassa fever in humans where the reservoir exists. We use semi-structured interviews (N = 51), a quantitative survey (N = 429), direct observations, and a rodent ecology study to provide new insights into how the organization of domestic spaces brings together humans and rodents and creates pathways for infection in rural settlements in Bo District, Sierra Leone. Rodents were frequently reported inside houses (92.4% of respondents), in which we predominantly trapped M. natalensis (57% of trapped rodents) and Rattus rattus (38% of trapped rodents). Building design and materials provide hiding and nesting places for rodents and lead to close proximity with humans. Patterns of contact are both unintentional and intentional and research participants reported high levels of contact with rodents (34.2% of respondents) and rodent fluids (52.8% of respondents). Rodents are also perceived as a serious threat to food security. These results present detailed knowledge about how humans live with and come into contact with rodents, including the LASV reservoir. Our results argue for further collaborative research in housing and environmental modification such as ceiling construction, food storage, and sanitation as prevention against zoonotic LASV transmission.

Lassa virus causes hemorrhagic fever in West Africa. Previously, we demonstrated by PCR screening that only the multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis, hosts Lassa virus in Guinea. In the present study, we used the same specimen collection from 17 villages in Coastal, Upper, and Forest Guinea to investigate the Lassa virus serology in the rodent population. The aim was to determine the dynamics of antibody development in M. natalensis and to detect potential spillover infections in other rodent species. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody screening was performed using the indirect immunofluorescence assay with the Guinean Lassa virus strain Bantou 289 as antigen. The overall seroprevalence was 8% (129/1551) with the following rodents testing positive: 109 M. natalensis, seven Mastomys erythroleucus, four Lemniscomys striatus, four Praomys daltoni, three Mus minutoides, and two Praomys rostratus. Nearly all of them (122/129) originated from Bantou, Tanganya, and Gbetaya, where Lassa virus is highly endemic in M. natalensis. The antibody seroprevalence in M. natalensis from this high-endemic area (27%; 108/396) depended on the village, habitat, host age, and host abundance. A main positive factor was age; the maximum seroprevalence reached 50% in older animals. Our data fit with a model implicating that most M. natalensis rodents become horizontally infected, clear the virus within a period significantly shorter than their life span, and develop antibodies. In addition, the detection of antibodies in other species trapped in the habitats of M. natalensis suggests spillover infections.

We report two outbreaks of Lassa fever that occurred in Benin in 2014 and 2016 with 20 confirmed cases and 50% (10/20) mortality. Benin was not previously considered to be an endemic country for Lassa fever, resulting in a delay to diagnose the disease and its human transmission. Molecular investigations showed the viral genomes to be similar to that of the Togo strain, which is genetically very different from other known strains and confirms the existence of a new lineage. Endemic circulation of Lassa virus in a new territory and the genetic diversity thus confirm that this virus represents a growing threat for West African people. Given the divergence of the Benin strain from the prototypic Josiah Sierra Leone strain frequently used to generate vaccine candidates, the efficacy of vaccine candidates should also be demonstrated with this strain.