State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Prof. Dr. Xiaodong Yan
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Although observations and modeling studies show that heavy rainfall is increasing in many regions, how changes will manifest themselves on sub‐daily timescales remains highly uncertain. Here, for the first time, we combine observational analysis and high‐resolution modeling results to examine changes to extreme rainfall intensities in urbanized Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. We find that hourly intensities of extreme rainfall have increased by ~35% over the last three decades, nearly 3 times more than in surrounding rural areas, with daily intensities showing much weaker increases. Our modeling results confirm that the urban heat island effect creates a more unstable atmosphere, increased vertical uplift and moisture convergence. This, combined with weak surface winds in the Tropics, causes intensification of rainfall extremes over the city, with reduced rainfall in the surrounding region.
23 July 2012 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3–2/3 (CESM 33–67%, BNU-ESM 35–65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.
21 February 2018 in Environmental Research Letters
This paper describes the weight–length relationships (WLRs) and Fulton’s condition factors (K) of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in purse seine fisheries from three cruises in the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO): August–September 2009 (AS09), November–December 2012 (ND12), and June–July 2013 (JJ13). The fork length and weight of a total of 1678 specimens were measured. The results showed that the fork length of more than 70% of specimens was below 60 cm (76% in AS09, 87% in ND12, and 73% in JJ13). The coefficient b in the combined sex group was 3.367, 3.300 and 3.234 in JJ13, AS09 and ND12, respectively. The b values of WLRs when fork length was >60 cm were significantly less than 3 (P = 0.062), but when fork length was <60 cm they were significantly greater than 3 (P = 0.028). The K value ranges of JJ13, AS09 and ND12 in different fork length groups were 1.3–1.84 (1.62 ± 0.18), 1.57–2.02 (1.86 ± 0.15), and 1.44–1.78 (0.65 ± 0.13), respectively. Moreover, K values in different fork length classes for each cruise had one turning point: 60–65 cm for JJ13; 60–65 cm for ND12; and 55–60 cm for AS09. The results of this study provide basic information on the WLRs and K values of skipjack tuna in different seasons and growth phases in the WCPO, which are useful for fishery biologists and fishery managers.
2 August 2016 in International Journal of Climatology
Vegetation types are generally classified based only on remote sensing vegetation data, and yet they cannot reflect their connection with climate. Climatic vegetation types reflect the regional vegetation characteristics in terms of climate. The distribution of global climatic vegetation types were identified by K‐means method based on vegetation and climate data. Fourteen climatic vegetation types were classified based on vegetation and climate data. Every type had distinct climate and vegetation characteristics. The regions with similar normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values but with different climate values such as tropical desert and temperate desert could be distinguished. Our new updated climatic vegetation types agreed ‘fair’ with Koeppen climate types and climate type of Zhang and Yan while agreed ‘good’ with vegetation types when checked with Kappa test.
Jilin is among the most important grain-producing provinces in China. Its maize production plays an important role in local and national food security. In this study, we developed a new approach to assess the vulnerability and adaptation options for Jilin maize yields with respect to climate change by modifying a site-based biophysical model to a spatial grid-based application. An ensemble approach that used a combination of 20 general circulation model results and 6 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios was adopted in order to reflect the high uncertainties in future climate projections. The results show that the yield is highly likely to decline in the western and central regions of Jilin but to increase in the east, where maize is not currently grown as the main crop. Phenologically, the growing season will be reduced in the central and western parts, leading to a shortened grain-filling period. The average maize yield in the west and central regions is thus projected to decrease 15% or more by 2050 as predicted by 90% of 120 projected scenarios. In addition, CO₂ fertilization was investigated and demonstrated a noticeable compensation effect on the yield deduction. However, further field work and/or laboratory-based experiments are required to validate the modeled CO₂ fertilization effects. Two potential adaptation strategies, i.e. improving irrigation facilities and introducing cultivars, were identified from the vulnerability assessment and were further tested for the reduction areas. The results revealed that the increase in effective irrigation by upgrading the irrigation system would help to maintain the current production level, but in the long run, the maize cultivars need to be introduced in line with the future warming climate