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Mateusz Szcześniak
Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW)

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Research article atmospheric and space sciences
Published: 03 November 2018 in Acta Geophysica
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The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

ACS Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Tomasz Okruszko; Iwona Pińskwar; Ignacy Kardel; Øystein Hov; Mateusz Szcześniak; Małgorzata Szwed; Rasmus E. Benestad; Paweł Marcinkowski; Dariusz Graczyk; Andreas Dobler; Eirik J. Førland; Joanna O'Keeffe; Adam Choryński; Kajsa M. Parding; Jan Erik Haugen. Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland. Acta Geophysica 2018, 66, 1509 -1523.

AMA Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Mikołaj Piniewski, Abdelkader Mezghani, Tomasz Okruszko, Iwona Pińskwar, Ignacy Kardel, Øystein Hov, Mateusz Szcześniak, Małgorzata Szwed, Rasmus E. Benestad, Paweł Marcinkowski, Dariusz Graczyk, Andreas Dobler, Eirik J. Førland, Joanna O'Keeffe, Adam Choryński, Kajsa M. Parding, Jan Erik Haugen. Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland. Acta Geophysica. 2018; 66 (6):1509-1523.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Tomasz Okruszko; Iwona Pińskwar; Ignacy Kardel; Øystein Hov; Mateusz Szcześniak; Małgorzata Szwed; Rasmus E. Benestad; Paweł Marcinkowski; Dariusz Graczyk; Andreas Dobler; Eirik J. Førland; Joanna O'Keeffe; Adam Choryński; Kajsa M. Parding; Jan Erik Haugen. 2018. "Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland." Acta Geophysica 66, no. 6: 1509-1523.

Original article
Published: 05 October 2018 in Fisheries Management and Ecology
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Climate change is expected to affect the flow regime, cause loss of habitat, change community composition and behavioural habits of fish. This study assessed the impact of climate change on ecologically relevant streamflow conditions for fish migration and spawning in the Vistula and the Odra river basins. Streamflow simulations obtained with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the historical period and two future horizons were driven by nine bias‐corrected EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This study identified a subset of Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) that are relevant for pike, Esox lucius L., chub, Squalius cephalus (L.), and Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. IHA indicators were calculated and compared for different scenarios. An index‐based framework identified that all considered species will be impacted by climate change, with Atlantic salmon facing the largest impact. The model's uncertainty was addressed through an aggregation method that assessed inconsistencies in the model's response.

ACS Style

Joanna O'keeffe; Mikołaj Piniewski; Mateusz Szcześniak; Paweł Oglęcki; Piotr Parasiewicz; Tomasz Okruszko. Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon. Fisheries Management and Ecology 2018, 26, 474 -485.

AMA Style

Joanna O'keeffe, Mikołaj Piniewski, Mateusz Szcześniak, Paweł Oglęcki, Piotr Parasiewicz, Tomasz Okruszko. Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon. Fisheries Management and Ecology. 2018; 26 (6):474-485.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Joanna O'keeffe; Mikołaj Piniewski; Mateusz Szcześniak; Paweł Oglęcki; Piotr Parasiewicz; Tomasz Okruszko. 2018. "Index‐based analysis of climate change impact on streamflow conditions important for Northern Pike, Chub and Atlantic salmon." Fisheries Management and Ecology 26, no. 6: 474-485.

Data descriptor
Published: 26 April 2017 in Data
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There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The data set consists of three parts: (1) model inputs; (2) raw model outputs; (3) aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.

ACS Style

Mikołaj Piniewski; Mateusz Szcześniak; Ignacy Kardel. CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland. Data 2017, 2, 14 .

AMA Style

Mikołaj Piniewski, Mateusz Szcześniak, Ignacy Kardel. CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland. Data. 2017; 2 (2):14.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mikołaj Piniewski; Mateusz Szcześniak; Ignacy Kardel. 2017. "CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland." Data 2, no. 2: 14.

Journal article
Published: 25 April 2017 in Meteorologische Zeitschrift
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ACS Style

Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Mateusz Szcześniak; Zbigniew Kundzewicz. Regional projections of temperature and precipitation changes: Robustness and uncertainty aspects. Meteorologische Zeitschrift 2017, 26, 223 -234.

AMA Style

Mikołaj Piniewski, Abdelkader Mezghani, Mateusz Szcześniak, Zbigniew Kundzewicz. Regional projections of temperature and precipitation changes: Robustness and uncertainty aspects. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2017; 26 (2):223-234.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Mateusz Szcześniak; Zbigniew Kundzewicz. 2017. "Regional projections of temperature and precipitation changes: Robustness and uncertainty aspects." Meteorologische Zeitschrift 26, no. 2: 223-234.

Journal article
Published: 23 February 2017 in Water
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Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021–2050, and far future: 2071– 2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models—Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment—European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Mateusz Szcześniak; Rasmus Benestad; Raghavan Srinivasan; Stefan Ignar; Tomasz Okruszko. Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland. Water 2017, 9, 156 .

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, Mateusz Szcześniak, Rasmus Benestad, Raghavan Srinivasan, Stefan Ignar, Tomasz Okruszko. Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland. Water. 2017; 9 (3):156.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Mateusz Szcześniak; Rasmus Benestad; Raghavan Srinivasan; Stefan Ignar; Tomasz Okruszko. 2017. "Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland." Water 9, no. 3: 156.

Journal article
Published: 12 February 2015 in Water
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Ground-based precipitation data are still the dominant input type for hydrological models. Spatial variability in precipitation can be represented by spatially interpolating gauge data using various techniques. In this study, the effect of daily precipitation interpolation methods on discharge simulations using the semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model over a 30-year period is examined. The study was carried out in 11 meso-scale (119–3935 km2) sub-catchments lying in the Sulejów reservoir catchment in central Poland. Four methods were tested: the default SWAT method (Def) based on the Nearest Neighbour technique, Thiessen Polygons (TP), Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Ordinary Kriging (OK). =The evaluation of methods was performed using a semi-automated calibration program SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Procedure Version 2) with two objective functions: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the adjusted R2 coefficient (bR2). The results show that: (1) the most complex OK method outperformed other methods in terms of NSE; and (2) OK, IDW, and TP outperformed Def in terms of bR2. The median difference in daily/monthly NSE between OK and Def/TP/IDW calculated across all catchments ranged between 0.05 and 0.15, while the median difference between TP/IDW/OK and Def ranged between 0.05 and 0.07. The differences between pairs of interpolation methods were, however, spatially variable and a part of this variability was attributed to catchment properties: catchments characterised by low station density and low coefficient of variation of daily flows experienced more pronounced improvement resulting from using interpolation methods. Methods providing higher precipitation estimates often resulted in a better model performance. The implication from this study is that appropriate consideration of spatial precipitation variability (often neglected by model users) that can be achieved using relatively simple interpolation methods can significantly improve the reliability of model simulations.

ACS Style

Mateusz Szcześniak; Mikołaj Piniewski. Improvement of Hydrological Simulations by Applying Daily Precipitation Interpolation Schemes in Meso-Scale Catchments. Water 2015, 7, 747 -779.

AMA Style

Mateusz Szcześniak, Mikołaj Piniewski. Improvement of Hydrological Simulations by Applying Daily Precipitation Interpolation Schemes in Meso-Scale Catchments. Water. 2015; 7 (12):747-779.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mateusz Szcześniak; Mikołaj Piniewski. 2015. "Improvement of Hydrological Simulations by Applying Daily Precipitation Interpolation Schemes in Meso-Scale Catchments." Water 7, no. 12: 747-779.