The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of different forecasting models for monthly wind farm electricity production. This study compares the effectiveness of three forecasting models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and Support Vector Regression (SVR). This study utilizes data from two wind farms located in Poland—‘Gizałki’ and ‘Łęki Dukielskie’—to exclude the possibility of biased results due to specific characteristics of a single farm and to allow for a more comprehensive comparison of the effectiveness of both time series analysis methods. Model parameterization was optimized through a grid search based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The performance of the best models was evaluated using Mean Bias Error (MBE), MAPE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R2Score. For the Gizałki farm, the ARIMA model outperformed SARIMA and SVR, while for the Łęki Dukielskie farm, SARIMA proved to be the most accurate, highlighting the importance of optimizing seasonal parameters. The SVR method demonstrated the lowest effectiveness for both datasets. The results indicate that the ARIMA and SARIMA models are effective for forecasting wind farm energy production. However, their performance is influenced by the specificity of the data and seasonal patterns. The study provides an in-depth analysis of the results and offers suggestions for future research, such as extending the data to include multidimensional time series. Our findings have practical implications for enhancing the accuracy of wind farm energy forecasts, which can significantly improve operational efficiency and planning.
A complete blood count is one of the significant clinical tests that evaluates overall human health and provides relevant information for disease diagnosis. The conventional strategies of blood cell counting include manual counting as well as counting using the hemocytometer and are tedious and time-consuming tasks. This research-based paper proposes an automatic software-based alternative method to count blood cells accurately using the RetinaNet deep learning network, which is used to recognize and classify objects in microscopic images. After training, the network automatically recognizes and counts red blood cells, white blood cells, and platelets. We tested a model trained on smear images and found that the trained model has generalized capabilities. We assessed the quality of detection and cell counting using performance measures, such as accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and F1-score. Moreover, we studied the dependence of the confidence thresholds and the number of learning epochs on the obtained results of recognition and counting. We compared the performance of the proposed approach with those obtained by other authors who dealt with the subject of cell counting and show that object detection and labeling can be an additional advantage in the task of counting objects.
This paper contains studies of daily energy production forecasting methods for photovoltaic solar panels (PV panel) by using mathematical methods and fuzzy logic models. Mathematical models are based on analytic equations that bind PV panel power with temperature and solar radiation. In models based on fuzzy logic, we use Adaptive-network-based Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) and the zero-order Takagi-Sugeno model (TS) with specially selected linear and non-linear membership functions. The use of mentioned membership functions causes that the TS system is equivalent to a polynomial and its properties can be compared to other analytical models of PV panels found in the literature. The developed models are based on data from a real system. The accuracy of developed prognostic models is compared, and a prototype software implementing the best-performing models is presented. The software is written for a generic programmable logic controller (PLC) compliant to the IEC 61131-3 standard.
This paper presents the models developed for the short-term forecasting of energy production by photovoltaic panels. An analysis of a set of weather factors influencing daily energy production is presented. Determining the correlation between the produced direct current (DC) energy and the individual weather parameters allowed the selection of the potentially best explanatory factors, which served as input data for the neural networks. The forecasting models were based on MLP and Elman-type networks. An appropriate selection of structures and learning parameters was carried out, as well as the process of learning the models. The models were built based on different time periods: year-round, semi-annual, and seasonal. The models were developed separately for monocrystalline and amorphous photovoltaic modules. The study compared the models with the predicted and measured insolation energy. In addition, complex forecasting models were developed for the photovoltaic system, which could forecast DC and AC energy simultaneously. The complex models were developed according to the rules of global and local modeling. The forecast errors of the developed models were included. The smallest values of the DC energy forecast errors were achieved for the models designed for summer forecasts. The percentage forecast error was 1.95% using directly measured solar irradiance and 5. 57% using predicted solar irradiance. The complex model for summer forecasted the AC energy with an error of 1.86%.
The article presents a method of predicting a one day-ahead of energy production in solar photovoltaic panels. The one day-ahead forecast is one of the short-term forecasts. A forecasting method that uses MLP neural networks is presented. Forecasting models with different numbers of hidden neurons were built, and forecast accuracy was compared. Forecasts were made for several time periods (e.g. year-round, semi-annual, seasonal). The impact of weather factors on the quality of forecasts was investigated.
The article presents selected methods for forecasting energy generated by a solar system. Short-term forecasts are necessary in planning the work of renewable energy sources and their share in the energy market. Forecasting from the one-day horizon is one of the short-term forecasts. Rear-round prognostic models have been designed using various forecasting methods such as regression, neural networks or time series. On the basis of one day ahead forecasts the accuracy of designed models was assessed. The influence of selected weather factors on forecasts accuracy is also presented, only for models implemented by MLP neural networks. As well as the results of research on the impact of the model structure (as MLP neural network) on the accuracy of forecasts are presented.