As is the case in a number of countries, the UK construction industry faces the challenge of expanding production whilst making ambitious greenhouse gas emission reductions. Embodied carbon constitutes a growing proportion of whole-life carbon emissions and accounts for a significant share of total UK emissions. A key mitigation strategy is increasing the use of alternative materials with lower embodied carbon. The economic, technical, practical and cultural barriers to the uptake of these alternatives are explored through a survey of construction professionals and interviews with industry leaders. Perceptions of high cost, ineffective allocation of responsibility, industry culture, and the poor availability of product and building-level carbon data and benchmarks constitute significant barriers. Opportunities to overcome these barriers include earlier engagement of professionals along the supply chain, effective use of whole-life costing, and changes to contract and tender documents. A mounting business case exists for addressing embodied carbon, but has yet to be effectively disseminated. In the meantime, the moral convictions of individual clients and practitioners have driven early progress. However, this research underscores the need for new regulatory drivers to complement changing attitudes if embodied carbon is to be established as a mainstream construction industry concern.

The net energy implications of the energy transition have so far been analysed at best at the final energy stage. Here we argue that expanding the analysis to the useful stage is crucial. We estimate fossil fuelsʼ useful-stage energy returns on investment (EROIs) over the period 1971–2020, globally and nationally, and disaggregate EROIs by end use. We find that fossil fuelsʼ useful-stage EROIs (~3.5:1) are considerably lower than at the final stage (~8.5:1), due to low final-to-useful efficiencies. Further, we estimate the final-stage EROI for which electricity-yielding renewable energy would deliver the same net useful energy as fossil fuels (EROI equivalent) to be approximately 4.6:1. The EROIs of electricity-yielding renewable energy systems, based on published estimations, are found to be higher than the determined EROI equivalent, even considering the effects of intermittency under a range of energy transition scenarios. Results suggest that the energy transition may happen without a decline in net useful energy, countering the view that renewable energy systems cannot replace fossil fuels without incurring a substantial energy penalty.

Synthetic minutely irradiance time series are utilised in non-spatial solar energy system research simulations. It is necessary that they accurately capture irradiance fluctuations and variability inherent in the solar resource. This article describes a methodology to generate a synthetic minutely irradiance time series from widely available hourly weather observation data. The weather observation data are used to produce a set of Markov chains taking into account seasonal, diurnal, and pressure influences on transition probabilities of cloud cover. Cloud dynamics are based on a power-law probability distribution, from which cloud length and duration are derived. Atmospheric transmission losses are simulated with minutely variability, using atmospheric profiles from meteorological reanalysis data and cloud attenuation derived real-world observations. Both direct and diffuse irradiance are calculated, from which total irradiance is determined on an arbitrary plane. The method is applied to the city of Leeds, UK, and validated using independent hourly radiation measurements from the same site. Variability and ramp rate are validated using 1-min resolution irradiance data from the town of Cambourne, Cornwall, UK. The hourly irradiance frequency distribution correlates with R2=0.996 whilst the mean hourly irradiance correlates with R2=0.971, the daily variability indices cumulative probability distribution function (CDF), 1-min irradiance ramp rate CDF and 1-min irradiance frequency CDF are also shown to correlate with R2=0.9903,1.000, and 0.9994 respectively. Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests on 1-min data for each day show that the ramp rate frequency of occurrence is captured with a high significance level of 99.99%, whilst the irradiance frequency distribution and minutely variability indices are captured at significances of 99% and 97.5% respectively. The use of multiple Markov chains and detailed consideration of the atmospheric losses are shown to be essential elements for the generation of realistic minutely irradiance time series over a typical meteorological year. A freely downloadable example of the model is made available and may be configured to the particular requirements of users or incorporated into other models