Coastal freshwater resources are commonly under high risk of being contaminated from seawater. The main processes that affect seawater intrusion are groundwater overexploitation, land use change, and climate change effects. In this context coastal lagoons represent the more sensitive environments prone to seawater intrusion. Numerical modelling is a useful tool to understand and predict seawater intrusion. In this study, a three-dimensional SEAWAT model is employed to simulate the seawater intrusion to coastal aquifers of Variconi Oasis (Italy). The present simulation was divided into a calibration and a validation model, then the model was used to predict the salinization trend up to 2050. Results show the role of the sea in salinizing the beach front, while the retrodunal environment is characterized by transitional environments. Future seawater intrusion scenarios considering only climate data showed no significative differences in respect to the actual situation. The same happens considering also a low sea level rise prediction. On the contrary, the worst scenario (high sea level rise prediction), depicts a quite different situation, with a saline intrusion in the Variconi oasis that will severely affect the fragile transitional ecosystem. This modelling framework can be used to quantify the effects of climate changes in similar coastal environments.

The Volturno Plain is one of the largest alluvial plains of peninsular Italy, which is one of the most susceptible plains to coastal hazards. This area is characterized by both natural and human-induced subsidence. This present study is based on the post-processing, analysis and mapping of the available Persistent Scatterer interferometry datasets. The latter were derived from the combination of both ascending and descending orbits of three different radar satellite systems during an observation period of almost two decades (June 1992–September 2010). The main output of this study is a map of vertical deformation, which provides new insights into the areal variability of the ground deformation processes (subsidence/uplift) of Volturno plain over the last few decades. The vertical displacement values obtained by the post-processing of the interferometric data show that the Volturno river plain is characterized by significant subsidence in the central axial sectors and in the river mouth area. Moderate uplift is detected in the eastern part of the plain, whereas other sectors of the study area are characterized by moderate subsidence and/or stability. On the basis of the analyzed subsoil stratigraphy, we inferred that the subsidence recorded in the Volturno plain is mainly a consequence of a natural process related to the compaction of the fluvial and palustrine deposits that form the alluvial plain. The anthropic influences (e.g., water exploitation, urbanization) are substantially considered to be an additional factor that may enhance subsidence only locally. The uplift mapped in the eastern sector of the plain is related to the tectonic activity. The study of the subsidence in the Volturno plain is a valuable tool for river flood analyses and the assessment of the coastal inundation hazards and related risk mitigation.

Coastal areas have become increasingly vulnerable to groundwater salinization, especially in the last century, due to the combined effects of climate change and growing anthropization. In this study, a novel methodology named GALDIT-SUSI was applied in the floodplain of the Volturno River mouth for the current (2018) and future (2050) evaluation of seawater intrusion accounting for the expected subsidence and groundwater salinization rates. Several input variables such as digital surface model, land use classification, subsidence rate and drainage system have been mapped via remote sensing resources. The current assessment highlights how areas affected by salinization coincide with the semiperennial lagoons and inland depressed areas where paleosaline groundwaters are present. The future assessment (2050) shows a marked increase of salinization vulnerability in the coastal strip and in the most depressed areas. The results highlight that the main vulnerability driver is the Revelle index, while predicted subsidence and recharge rates will only slightly affect groundwater salinization. This case study indicates that GALDIT-SUSI is a reliable and easy-to-use tool for the assessment of groundwater salinization in many coastal regions of the world.

In the Mediterranean area, several alluvial coastal plains, developed after the Holocene transgression, are affected by subsidence. The Volturno alluvial-coastal plain, along the eastern Tyrrhenian Sea (southern Italy) is characterized by subsidence rates determined through InSAR data analysis and ranging between 0 and <−20 mm/year in an area of about 750 kmq across the Volturno River. Inside this area, the pattern of subsidence shows sites with apparently anomalous localized subsidence. To understand the driving mechanisms of this process, a lithostratigraphic reconstruction was provided focusing on the spatial distribution of the horizons considered weak by a geotechnical point of view; then, the subsidence map was overlain spatially with geological data in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. The spatial analysis highlighted the major ground deformation occurring within the outer boundary of the incised paleo-valley, corresponding to the Holocene alluvial/transitional filling that overlies a compaction-free Pleistocene basement. Inside this general trend, differential compaction was detected corresponding to the thick occurrence of clay and peat deposits, suggesting that the subsidence rate registered in the plain are due in part to the consolidation of primary settlements of soft and compressible soils that characterize the subsoil of these areas, and in large part to the secondary consolidation settlements.