This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption and technological innovation using a dynamic panel data model and regional-level data from China for the period 1995–2012. In contrast to previous studies, it examines the short and long-run bilateral relationship between technological innovation and energy consumption. The results show that in the short run, technological innovation leads to an increase in energy consumption, while energy consumption has no significant effect on technological innovation. In the long run, however, energy consumption is positively and bilaterally related to technological innovation. These findings suggest that although technological innovation does not directly lead to a reduction in energy consumption as mentioned in the extant literature, it could help achieve sustainability through improving energy efficiency and developing energy structure for developing countries.

Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO concentration will not exceed 610ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6°C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC's climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic