This study aims to determine if there is variation in precipitation concentrations in Chile. We analyzed daily and monthly records from 89 pluviometric stations in the period 1970–2016 and distributed between 29°12′ S and 39°30′ S. This area was divided into two climatic zones: arid–semiarid and humid–subhumid. For each station, the Gini coefficient or Gini Index (GI), the precipitation concentration index (PCI), and the maximum annual precipitation intensity in a 24-h duration were calculated. These series of annual values were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall test with 5% error. Overall, it was noted that positive trends in the GI are present in both areas, although most were not found to be significant. In the case of PCI, the presence of positive trends is only present in the arid–semiarid zone; in the humid–subhumid zone, negative trends were mostly observed, although none of them were significant. Although no significant changes in all indices are evident, the particular case of the GI in the humid–subhumid zone stands out, where mostly positive trends were found (91.1%), of which 35.6% were significant. This would indicate that precipitation is more likely to be concentrated on a daily scale.

The arid Coquimbo region of Chile has experienced a significant economic growth in recent decades, fueled in large part by water-intensive activities such as mining and agriculture. Under this context, a monthly and annual trend analysis of precipitation, streamflow, and piezometric levels was carried out. Thus, 43 pluviometric stations, 11 fluviometric stations, and 11 wells were selected. These stations were evaluated for their temporal trends using the Mann–Kendall test. Results revealed a significant decrease in river flows, with negative and significant trends concentrated in the mean and maximum flows, both at annual and monthly levels. Likewise, positive trends were found in the depth to water table on wells, with significant trends in 81.8% of the monthly cases, and in 72.7% of the annual cases. While also decreasing over the same period, rainfall trends exhibit high variability and lacked significance. Although the amounts of precipitation have decreased, this does not seem to be the main factor responsible for the scarcity of water in the region, but rather an excessive consumption of this resource. This is endorsed by the increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which is explained by activities that consume water (mining and agriculture). Similarly, an increase in the granting of underground water rights was verified, which speaks of the high demands for the resource. However, future modeling is advised to better understand the regional hydrology of the area and quantify the anthropic effects on water resources more precisely.

The value of American options depends on the exercise policy followed by option holders. Market frictions, risk aversion, or a misspecified model, for example, can result in suboptimal behavior. We study the sensitivity of American options to suboptimal exercise strategies. We show that this measure is given by the Gamma of the American option at the optimal exercise boundary. More precisely, “ifBis the optimal exercise price, but exercise is eitherbrought forward whenordelayed untila priceB̃has been reached, the cost of suboptimal exercise is given by ½ ×Γ(B) × (B−B̃)², whereΓ(B) denotes the American option Gamma.” Therefore, the cost of suboptimal exercise is second-order in the bias of the exercise policy and depends on Gamma. This result provides new insights on American options.

Estimating intensity−duration−frequency (IDF) curves requires local historical information of precipitation intensity. When such information is unavailable, as in areas without rain gauges, it is necessary to consider other methods to estimate curve parameters. In this study, three methods were explored to estimate IDF curves in ungauged areas: Kriging (KG), Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), and Storm Index (SI). To test the viability of these methods, historical data collected from 31 rain gauges distributed in central Chile, 35° S to 38° S, are used. As a result of the reduced number of rain gauges to evaluate the performance of each method, we used LOOCV (Leaving One Out Cross Validation). The results indicate that KG was limited due to the sparse distribution of rain gauges in central Chile. SI (a linear scaling method) showed the smallest prediction error in all of the ungauged locations, and outperformed both KG and IDW. However, the SI method does not provide estimates of uncertainty, as is possible with KG. The simplicity of SI renders it a viable method for extrapolating IDF curves to locations without data in the central zone of Chile.

The availability of water in Chile has shown signs of decline in recent decades. This is problematic because Chile’s economy depends on mining, forestry, and agricultural activities, all limited by the availability of water resources. In this study, daily, monthly and annual flows in 31 basins located in the arid–semiarid zones (29°12′ S–33°58′ S) and in the humid–subhumid zones (34°43′ S–38°30′ S) of Chile were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall trend test and the quantile–Kendall procedure during three periods: 1984–2021 (31 stations), 1975–2021 (20 stations), and 1969–2021 (18 stations). Results showed that, at the annual level, trends were predominantly negative in both climatic zones and over the three periods analyzed. In the arid–semiarid zone, a higher frequency of annual significant negative trends was found in maximum flows in 1969–2021 and 1975–2021, compared to the last period under study. The humid–subhumid zone showed significant annual negative trends in all series analyzed. At the monthly level, on the other hand, the arid-semiarid zone showed a decrease in significant negative trends as the number of years analyzed increased, for all flow types. The humid–subhumid zone did not indicate a similar defined pattern. Likewise, the quantile–Kendall procedure showed a reduction in the significant trends as the length of the time series was increased in the arid-semiarid zone, but no such pattern was observed in the humid–subhumid zone. Furthermore, a relationship was observed for the PDO and the summer month flows for both zones. Consequently, it is concluded that the flow trends are generally negative, and their statistical significance depends on the period studied.

Forest ecosystems play an important role in hydrological processes as surface and subsurface runoff, as well as the storage of water at the catchment scale. Therefore, it is important to have a greater understanding of the effects of forests in the long-term water balance of Mediterranean catchments. In this sense, this study evaluates the effect of native forests, forest plantations, and the combination of both, on long-term streamflow variations in central Chile, an unusual area of Mediterranean climate characterized by a well-marked annual cycle with dry summers and wet winters. Thus, the temporal pattern of monthly streamflow was evaluated for mean flow (Qmean), maximum flow (Qmax), and minimum flow (Qmin) in 42 large-scale (>200 km²) Mediterranean catchments. Each series of monthly streamflow data was QA/QC, and then evaluated using the Mann–Kendall’s non-parametric statistical test to detect temporal variations between 1994 and 2015. In addition to the previous analysis, the monthly series were grouped into wet seasons (April–September) and dry seasons (October–April), to determine if there were any significant differences within the annual hydrological cycle. The areas covered with native and forest plantations and their relative changes were evaluated for each catchment through streamflow variations and forest cover indicators. Results revealed that streamflow variations are positive and significant when more forest cover exists. The intra-catchment relationships assessed for both species revealed the significant role of native forests and mixed masses as key ecosystems for the long-term conservation of summer streamflow in Mediterranean catchments of central Chile. These findings encourage an urgent need to create highland afforestation programs on degraded areas of central Chile, to maximize water storage in a region that is quickly drying out due to unsustainable water and land use management practices and the effects of global warming.