Muhammad Umar Afzaal

Mr. Muhammad Umar Afzaal

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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

7Years (2020-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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13 March 2020 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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MAMuhammad Umar Afzaal
Muhammad Umar Afzaal
MSMalik Intisar Ali Sajjad
Malik Intisar Ali Sajjad
Ahmed Bilal AwanAhmed Bilal Awan
Ahmed Bilal Awan
KPKashif nisar Paracha
Kashif nisar Paracha
Muhammad Faisal KhanMuhammad Faisal Khan
Muhammad Faisal Khan
Iskander TliliIskander Tlili
Iskander Tlili
Around the world, countries are integrating photovoltaic generating systems to the grid to support climate change initiatives. However, solar power generation is highly uncertain due to variations in solar irradiance level during different hours of the day. Inaccurate modelling of this variability can lead to non-optimal dispatch of system resources. Therefore, accurate characterization of solar irradiance patterns is essential for effective management of renewable energy resources in an electrical power grid. In this paper, the Weibull distribution based probabilistic model is presented for characterization of solar irradiance patterns. Firstly, Weibull distribution is utilized to model inter-temporal variations associated with reference solar irradiance data through moving window averaging technique, and then the proposed model is used for irradiance pattern generation. To achieve continuity of discrete Weibull distribution parameters calculated at different steps of moving window, Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is employed. Goodness of Fit (GOF) techniques are used to calculate the error between mean and standard deviation of generated and reference patterns. The comparison of GOF results with the literature shows that the proposed model has improved performance. The presented model can be used for power system planning studies where the uncertainty of different resources such as generation, load, network, etc., needs to be considered for their better management.