Instytut Dendrologii PAN w Kórniku - Institute of Dendrology PAS (Kórnik, Poland)

Thymus L. genus of the Lamiaceae family, which has a cosmopolitan distribution that includes annual or perennial herbs, rarely shrubs or trees, known for their pleasant smell, has medicinal and aromatic species. Although the ethnobotanical use of individuals of the genus Thymus is quite common, its consumption is often preferred as spice and medicinal tea. In this study, Thymus praecox Opiz. forms the material of the study. In this article, potential present and future distribution areas were modeled in MaxEnt 4.1 to determine the effects of climate change on the distribution areas of T. praecox in Türkiye. In the model, 2041-2060 (~2050) and 2081-2100 (~2090) periods of SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios in CanESM5.0.3 (The Canadian Earth System Model version 5) climate change model were used, together with sample points and bioclimatic variables. According to the study outputs, it is estimated that the estimated potential suitable and very suitable distribution areas of T. praecox today are 108411.705 km2 and according to the CanESM5.0.3 model, it will experience losses in very suitable and suitable distribution areas in the future, and very suitable distribution areas cannot be found in the SSP5 8.5 scenario 2081-2100 periods.

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.