The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km²) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km². Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km² by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km² in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

This paper aims to assess the perceived recreational ecosystem services (RES) of Gölcük Nature Park (Isparta) – a legally protected area- in order to evaluate its operational potential in relation to current management practices. To identify the perceived and preferred RES, an in-situ questionnaire survey was carried out. The long- term development plan for the site was used as secondary data to assess the management and development conflicts with perceived recreation provision. Descriptive statistics, t-test and one-way ANOVA test and bivariate calculations were used to analyze the data. The geomorphological structure of Gölcük Nature Park was found to constitute a significant resource for its perceived RES provision and sensory experience. Age and frequency of visit had any influence on neither perceived RES provision nor visitor preferences. On the other hand, while gender and education level were found influential on the appreciation of the RES to some degree, income and education level were found as determining factors in the context of visitors’ preferred activities. Based on our findings, we concluded that the perceived RES and the long-term development plan goals do not overlap at all since visitor characteristics and socio-spatial data were ignored during analysis and synthesis. Novel frameworks that integrate natural and social sciences need to be developed and authorities need to be receptive and adaptive to implement such approaches. In this regard, ES concept might be useful to identify strategies on conservation and recreational use.