Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric–lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on timescales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere–lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long-term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely the Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)), and the Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There are also some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free-running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).

A strong mountain wave, observed over Central Europe on 12 January 2016, is simulated in 2D under two fixed background wind conditions representing opposite tidal phases. The aim of the simulation is to investigate the breaking of the mountain wave and subsequent generation of nonprimary waves in the upper atmosphere. The model results show that the mountain wave first breaks as it approaches a mesospheric critical level creating turbulence on horizontal scales of 8–30 km. These turbulence scales couple directly to horizontal secondary waves scales, but those scales are prevented from reaching the thermosphere by the tidal winds, which act like a filter. Initial secondary waves that can reach the thermosphere range from 60 to 120 km in horizontal scale and are influenced by the scales of the horizontal and vertical forcing associated with wave breaking at mountain wave zonal phase width, and horizontal wavelength scales. Large‐scale nonprimary waves dominate over the whole duration of the simulation with horizontal scales of 107–300 km and periods of 11–22 minutes. The thermosphere winds heavily influence the time‐averaged spatial distribution of wave forcing in the thermosphere, which peaks at 150 km altitude and occurs both westward and eastward of the source in the 2 UT background simulation and primarily eastward of the source in the 7 UT background simulation. The forcing amplitude is 2 that of the primary mountain wave breaking and dissipation. This suggests that nonprimary waves play a significant role in gravity waves dynamics and improved understanding of the thermospheric winds is crucial to understanding their forcing distribution.

Rising emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) have led to tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling over recent decades. As a thermodynamic consequence, the troposphere has expanded and the rise of the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, has been suggested as one of the most robust fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change. Conversely, at altitudes above ∼55 km (in the mesosphere and thermosphere) observational and modeling evidence indicates a downward shift of the height of pressure levels or decreasing density at fixed altitudes. The layer in between, the stratosphere, has not been studied extensively with respect to changes of its global structure. Here we show that this atmospheric layer has contracted substantially over the last decades, and that the main driver for this are increasing concentrations of GHG. Using data from coupled chemistry-climate models we show that this trend will continue and the mean climatological thickness of the stratosphere will decrease by 1.3 km following representative concentration pathway 6.0 by 2080. We also demonstrate that the stratospheric contraction is not only a response to cooling, as changes in both tropopause and stratopause pressure contribute. Moreover, its short emergence time (less than 15 years) makes it a novel and independent indicator of GHG induced climate change.

We investigate trends and solar irradiance effects in the mesosphere using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with eXtended thermosphere and ionosphere (WACCM‐X) and radar measurements of winds at Collm (51^oN, 13^oE), for the period of 1980 – 2014. We found that in the mesosphere, dynamics significantly impact temperature and wind trends, as well as how solar irradiance affects the temperature and winds. The global‐average temperature trends are negative, with a maximum of ~ ‐1 K/decade in the middle to lower mesosphere. Solar irradiance effects on the global‐average temperature are positive and decrease monotonically with decreasing altitude, changing from ~ 3 K/100 solar flux units (sfu) near the mesopause to ~ 1 K/100 sfu in the lower mesosphere. In the summer upper mesosphere, temperature trends can become near zero or positive, likely due to dynamical effects. Both wind trends and solar effects on the winds show dynamical patterns with negative and positive values, indicating that they are predominantly controlled by dynamics. The wind trends and solar effects on the winds are on the orders of ~ ±5 m/s/decade and ~ ±5 m/s/100 sfu, respectively, and they are not as statistically significant as their temperature counterparts. At Collm (51^oN, 13^oE), the observed zonal winds at 90 km have a larger trend of 1.98 m/s/decade compared to the simulated zonal winds and it is statistically significant; but both the simulated and observed meridional winds do not have statistically significant trends.

Meteor radars have become widely used instruments to study atmospheric dynamics, particularly in the 70 to 110 km altitude region. These systems have been proven to provide reliable and continuous measurements of horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Recently, there have been many attempts to utilize specular and/or transverse scatter meteor measurements to estimate vertical winds and vertical wind variability. In this study we investigate potential biases in vertical wind estimation that are intrinsic to the meteor radar observation geometry and scattering mechanism, and we introduce a mathematical debiasing process to mitigate them. This process makes use of a spatiotemporal Laplace filter, which is based on a generalized Tikhonov regularization. Vertical winds obtained from this retrieval algorithm are compared to UA-ICON model data. This comparison reveals good agreement in the statistical moments of the vertical velocity distributions. Furthermore, we present the first observational indications of a forward scatter wind bias. It appears to be caused by the scattering center's apparent motion along the meteor trajectory when the meteoric plasma column is drifted by the wind. The hypothesis is tested by a radiant mapping of two meteor showers. Finally, we introduce a new retrieval algorithm providing a physically and mathematically sound solution to derive vertical winds and wind variability from multistatic meteor radar networks such as the Nordic Meteor Radar Cluster (NORDIC) and the Chilean Observation Network De meteOr Radars (CONDOR). The new retrieval is called 3DVAR+DIV and includes additional diagnostics such as the horizontal divergence and relative vorticity to ensure a physically consistent solution for all 3D winds in spatially resolved domains. Based on this new algorithm we obtained vertical velocities in the range of w = ± 1–2 m s⁻¹ for most of the analyzed data during 2 years of collection, which is consistent with the values reported from general circulation models (GCMs) for this timescale and spatial resolution.

The 2015/16 Northern Hemisphere winter season was marked by peculiarities in the circulation pattern in the high-latitude mesopause region. Wind measurements from the Andenes (69° N, 13° E) meteor radar show westward winds below 84 km and eastward winds above. This wind pattern in the zonal wind was observable between the end of December 2015 and the end of January 2016, i.e., conditions that are typical for the summer were found during winter. Additional meteor radar measurements at midlatitude stations did not show such a zonal wind reversal but indicate, together with the polar latitude stations, a reversal of the horizontal temperature gradient. This is confirmed by global satellite measurements. Therefore, it is plausible that the polar latitude summer-like zonal wind reversal in December–January is in accordance with the reversed horizontal temperature gradient assuming a thermal wind balance between mid- and polar latitudes. The reversed horizontal temperature gradient itself is induced by stationary planetary waves at lower and midlatitudes in the mesosphere, leading to a weakening of the residual circulation above the European sector.