A novel energy management system (EMS) based on a rolling horizon (RH) strategy for a renewable-based microgrid is proposed. For each decision step, a mixed integer optimization problem based on forecasting models is solved. The EMS provides online set points for each generation unit and signals for consumers based on a demand-side management (DSM) mechanism. The proposed EMS is implemented for a microgrid composed of photovoltaic panels, two wind turbines, a diesel generator and an energy storage system. A coherent forecast information scheme and an economic comparison framework between the RH and the standard unit commitment (UC) are proposed. Solar and wind energy forecasting are based on phenomenological models with updated data. A neural network for two-day-ahead electric consumption forecasting is also designed. The system is tested using real data sets from an existent microgrid in Chile (ESUSCON). The results based on different operation conditions show the economic sense of the proposal. A full practical implementation of the system for ESUSCON is envisioned.

A novel energy management system for a renewable based microgrid is proposed. It provides on-line set points for each generation unit, operation modes for a water supply system, and signals for consumers based on a demand side management mechanism. The smart microgrid is composed of photovoltaic panels, a wind turbine, a diesel generator, a battery bank, and a water supply system. The energy management system (EMS) minimizes the operational costs while supplying the water and electric load demands. It considers a two days ahead prediction of the weather conditions. Also, a neural network for a two days ahead electric consumption forecasting is designed. The system is implemented and tested using a real data set from a reference location. Results show the economic sense of the set points and management, for a practical implementation of the system in a specific location in Chile.

This paper aims to analyse the economy-wide implications of a carbon tax applied on the Chilean electricity generation sector. In order to analyse the macroeconomic impacts, both an energy sectorial model and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model have been used. During the year 2014 a carbon tax of 5 US$/tCO₂e was approved in Chile. This tax and its increases (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 US$/tCO₂e) are evaluated in this article. The results show that the effectiveness of this policy depends on some variables which are not controlled by policy makers, for example, non-conventional renewable energy investment cost projections, natural gas prices, and the feasibility of exploiting hydroelectric resources. For a carbon tax of 20 US$/tCO₂e, the average annual emission reduction would be between 1.1 and 9.1 million tCO₂e. However, the price of the electricity would increase between 8.3 and 9.6 US$/MWh. This price shock would decrease the annual GDP growth rate by a maximum amount of 0.13%. This article compares this energy policy with others such as the introduction of non-conventional renewable energy sources and a sectorial cap. The results show that the same global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction can be obtained with these policies, but the impact on the electricity price and GDP are lower than that of the carbon tax.

Hydrologic alteration due to hydropeaking reservoir operations is a main concern worldwide. Subdaily environmental flow constraints (ECs) on operations can be promising alternatives for mitigating negative impacts. However, those constraints reduce the flexibility of hydropower plants, potentially with higher costs for the power system. To study the economic and environmental efficiency of ECs, this work proposes a novel framework comprising four steps: (i) assessment of the current subdaily hydrologic alteration; (ii) formulation and implementation of a short‐term, grid‐wide hydrothermal coordination model; (iii) design of ECs in the form of maximum ramping rates (MRRs) and minimum flows (MIFs) for selected hydropower reservoirs; and (iv) identification of Pareto‐efficient solutions in terms of grid‐wide costs and the Richard‐Baker flashiness index for subdaily hydrologic alteration (SDHA). The framework was applied to Chile's main power grid, assessing 25 EC cases, involving five MIFs and five MRRs. Each case was run for a dry, normal, and wet water year type. Three Pareto‐efficient ECs are found, with remarkably small cost increase below 2% and a SDHA improvement between 28% and 90%. While the case involving the highest MIF worsens the flashiness of another basin, the other two have no negative effect on other basins and can be recommended for implementation.

In this paper, initial steps are presented toward characterizing, quantifying, incorporating and communicating uncertainty applying a probabilistic analysis to countrywide emission baseline forecasts, using Chile as a case study. Most GHG emission forecasts used by regulators are based on bottom-up deterministic approaches. Uncertainty is usually incorporated through sensitivity analysis and/or use of different scenarios. However, much of the available information on uncertainty is not systematically included. The deterministic approach also gives a wide range of variation in values without a clear sense of probability of the expected emissions, making it difficult to establish both the mitigation contributions and the subsequent policy prescriptions for the future. To improve on this practice, we have systematically included uncertainty into a bottom-up approach, incorporating it in key variables that affect expected GHG emissions, using readily available information, and establishing expected baseline emissions trajectories rather than scenarios. The resulting emission trajectories make explicit the probability percentiles, reflecting uncertainties as well as possible using readily available information in a manner that is relevant to the decision making process. Additionally, for the case of Chile, contradictory deterministic results are eliminated, and it is shown that, whereas under a deterministic approach Chile’s mitigation ambition does not seem high, the probabilistic approach suggests this is not necessarily the case. It is concluded that using a probabilistic approach allows a better characterization of uncertainty using existing data and modelling capacities that are usually weak in developing country contexts. Key policy insights

Climate change may result in a significant reduction of hydroelectric resources, worrying countries that are heavily dependent on it like many in Central and South America, where most electricity demand is met through hydropower generation. The impact in Chile was described, but Chile can serve as an example for the entire region, where climate change and GHG emissions have become a public concern. Preliminary analyses of the evolution of GHG emissions in the region show the great impact of electricity generation. The need for more accurate analysis and models for various countries in the region is clear. Specifically, mitigation and adaptation strategies should be carefully designed, exploiting potential synergies. Future development of the hydroelectric infrastructure should be analyzed, along with other water usage patterns in the areas of irrigation, drinking water, and industrial processes. The cooptimization of water and energy is therefore envisioned as a path to follow. This must also be considered in the energy market design and its revisions.